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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fed cuts are a small but welcome relief for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 01 Aug 2019

GCC central banks have mainly followed the Fed lower, in keeping with usual behaviourThe rate cuts come as a small but welcome relief for fiscal policy and to support credit growth, after a number of years of rate hikes amidst slowing economic growthHighly leveraged economies and sectors will be ...

​A Neutral Zone restart is coming and means more to Kuwait than Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jul 2019

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are edging towards restarting shared oil fields suspended for over four years due to bilateral disputes, which overlap with wider tensions with Iran and Qatar. Until OPEC quotas are lifted, a restart would be offset by cuts at other fields, but the spare capacity and expec...

BAHRAIN: Protests after Shia executions unlikely to spark change
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 30 Jul 2019

In the last few days Bahrain has seen the most extensive protests in two years following the executions of three men on saturday, including two young Shia. The anger is likely to lead to further clashes between protestors and police but there are currently no indications of an escalation towards ...

SAUDI: Stimulus will only buy a temporary reprieve
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 29 Jul 2019

Saudi Arabia is pressing ahead with a fiscal stimulus to drive growth after several tough years for both consumers and businesses. This stimulus will not be sustainable, and non-oil growth will slow to around 1.8% by 2021 from 2.6% in 2019. As a result, the fiscal deficit will swell to 9% of GDP ...

OMAN: Fiscal silence ends with lower deficit and a likely issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2019

After months of disconcerting silence on fiscal data, Oman has announced a surprising improvement in its deficit, Fitch has affirmed its rating and the Sultanate has seized the opportunity to promptly appoint bankers for a new bond issuance. We doubt the fiscal outturn for the rest of 2019 will b...

SAUDI: IMF forecasts are optimistic - we expect slower growth and larger deficits
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

The IMF just completed its annual Article IV consultation in the Kingdom. We have a broadly similar assessment of recent economic performance, but the IMF 2019 forecasts for both non-oil real GDP growth and the fiscal deficit are a little optimistic. In the longer term, we also see slower growth ...

​QATAR: Moody's credit opinion hints at an upgrade path
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jul 2019

Underlying trends in Moody’s latest credit opinion point towards a potential upgrade path, despite some negative revisions to its economic forecasts. This is because Qatar's “indicative” rating is now at its highest in at least three years, and we expect it will improve further, creating room for...

US Congress shifts against Saudi and UAE, hinting at problems post-Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Later today, the US House of Representatives will pass resolutions blocking emergency arms sales to Saudi Arabia and UAE, which the Administration had fast-tracked as part of its show of force against Iran. President Trump will veto the resolutions, but they are still indicative of hardening opin...

SAUDI: Government spending supports non-oil economy and requires further debt issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jul 2019

The sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 was due to voluntary oil production cuts and is not an immediate cause for concern. More positively, government spending in 2018 fed through into higher private non-oil sector growth in Q1 2019. Leading economic data indicates continued momentum in the non-o...

QATAR: White House visit provides boost amidst regional boycott
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jul 2019

The US is Qatar’s most important partner, commercially and politically. Qatar is also surprisingly important to the US, as evidenced by the Emir’s recent high profile reception. Strong US support bolsters Qatar, which is being boycotted by several neighbors. Trump is now very clearly on side, aft...

UAE: Yemen exit should mitigate criticism and risks
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Jul 2019

The UAE is rapidly withdrawing troops from Yemen, having been the largest foreign presence in the south.Its involvement in the war had drawn wide criticism and tarnished its international reputation.Its exit reduces the risk of blowback attacks (drones and missiles) and escalation with Iran, whic...

KUWAIT: Capital markets will gain from MSCI inclusion and a new debt law
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jul 2019

Kuwait’s upgrade to MSCI emerging market status was enabled by reforms to professionalize the market and attract foreign investors. The impact of these changes, which drove earlier upgrades from FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones, has been positive in terms of inflows and performance, which should co...

QATAR: Construction GDP contracted in Q1, but is no cause for alarm
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jul 2019

Real GDP growth remained low at 0.9% y/y in Q1. Construction contracted by 1.2%, the first decline since 2005, but this was expected after a major development wave, and the contraction will deepen in the coming years. Other non-hydrocarbon sectors continue to experience modest, but not spectacula...

NEW - GlobalSource Partners adds Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coverage
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2019

With the inclusion of GCC countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, and an anticipated $30-60 billion expected to flow into the region, we are pleased to announce the expansion of our emerging markets coverage to include Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries...

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