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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Strong Abu Dhabi GDP, Qatar inflation cools, PIF invests in Oman IPO
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi energy minister affirmed that he expects OPEC+ quotas to remain unchanged all year. * Iran’s president visited China while the US met with the Gulf states to discuss integrated security. * Saudi Arabia sent earthq...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rallies on Russian cuts, PIF green bond, Saudi PMI rebounds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rallied strongly to $86 on factors including Russian supply cuts. * The Saudi PMI rebounded strongly to 58.2 but Qatar’s sank further, to 45.7. * Saudi Arabia may issue bonds in euro and other currencies to refina...

Sharjah deep dive: Debut sustainable bond pending following fiscal plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Feb 2023

• Sharjah is issuing its debut sustainable bond next week and needs about $4.7bn in financing this year. • This follows the release of its first medium term plan, which prompted S&P to stabilize the rating and, along with Moody’s, to materially reduce projected debt levels. • The fiscal plan ai...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi growth leads G20, Kuwait budgets a huge deficit, Bahrain-Qatar flights may resume
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As expected, OPEC+ left quotas unchanged through April, but oil dipped on US stock building. * Qatar and Kuwait were the only Gulf states that did not mirror the Fed’s +25bp hike. * Saudi Arabia’s 8.7% growth in 2022 was ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s cabinet resigns, S&P stabilizes Sharjah, Qatar-Bahrain phone call
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Qatar-Bahrain reconciliation gained pace as the Amir and Crown Prince spoke by phone. * Saudi Arabia’s 2023 borrowing plan implies it only needs to raise $1bn more this year. * S&P lifted Sharjah’s outlook to stable, and ...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain-Qatar handshake in UAE, Sharjah’s 2030 fiscal plan, Kuwaiti pardon may ease deadlock
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose for a second week on expectations of Chinese demand growth. * The UAE hosted an Arab leaders summit, featuring a Qatar-Bahrain handshake but no Saudi Arabia. * Inflation rose in Qatar (the highest, at 5.9%), Duba...

GULF WEEKLY: $10bn Saudi bond, Kuwait political turmoil, Shell invests in Omani hydrogen, Gulf bailout for Egypt and Pakistan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE pledged a $1bn loan to Pakistan and extended an existing $2bn. * Saudi Arabia added $1bn in oil financing and is considering an extra $2bn loan and an extra $9bn investment. * Gulf states are expected to roll ove...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai lifts alcohol tax, FAB mooted buying StanChart, Oman’s detailed budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 this week on global recession fears. * The GCC had 5/10 most active SWFs in 2022, boosting investments in major deals by 88% y/y. * The UAE called a UN meeting over a controversial holy site visit by ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi invests in Dubai and Oman, Q3 GDP stronger in Bahrain than Oman, Oman signs LNG deal with Japan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel’s hardline government could undermine warming relations with the Gulf. * Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus rose to 17% of GDP, while Qatar’s was around 29%. * PIF invested another $0.9bn in Lucid Group and com...

Oman and Qatar budget conservatively; Sharjah remains a concern despite a spending cut
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Dec 2022

* Conservative oil assumptions were used by Oman ($55) and Qatar ($65). * These result in a budgeted -3% of GDP deficit for Oman and a 3.5% surplus for Qatar. * Oman’s spending (ex-fuel subsidies) is budgeted to rise by about 5% vs its 2022 outturn. * Qatar’s spending is budgeted to fall by -3...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf mirrors Fed hike, UAE and Qatar surpluses in Q3, strong Saudi Q3 growth
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rebounds partially as IEA lifts 2023 demand forecast. * All Gulf states bar Kuwait mirrored the Fed’s 50bp hike. * China faced criticism from long-time ally Iran for appearing to favor Gulf states. * Saudi non-oil GD...

GULF WEEKLY: Xi visits Riyadh, MBZ visits Doha, OPEC+ maintains quotas, Saudi & Dubai budgets
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Dec 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its cuts but oil still dropped -10% this week to the lowest since 2021. * Changes made to Moody’s credit rating methodology are supportive of ratings for most Gulf states. * The UAE’s president made a sur...

SAUDI ARABIA: Budget assumes oil around $75 and shows spending discipline in some key areas
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 07 Dec 2022

The budget was released this evening (MoF), which largely reflects the headline figures from the pre-budget statement and anticipates a surplus of 0.4% of GDP, down from the estimated 2.6% this year. We will include more analysis in the weekly report on Friday and all the data will be added to th...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded + Bahrain positive outlook, Abu Dhabi GDP, PIF $17bn loan, Qatar-Germany LNG deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain quota levels next week, although a cut is possible. * Inflation has eased to 4.0% in the GCC, the lowest since May, with rent replacing food as the main driver. * PIF secured a $17bn 7...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi+Qatar to aid Turkey, Abu Dhabi H1 GDP, Kuwait announces political amnesty
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil ministers denied that a quota increase was being considered in response to the Russia price cap. * Saudi Arabia and Qatar are finalizing up to $15bn in financing support for Turkey. * Saudi nationalism was stoked by a...

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