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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

GULF WEEKLY: Nuclear deal hopes fade, Dubai’s PMI hits 3-year high, Sisi visits Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Pessimism grew about an Iran nuclear deal but it avoided additional official censure at the IAEA. * Moody’s said the credit profiles of Oman and Qatar stand to benefit the most from high oil prices. * Saudi inflation acce...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ unexpectedly cuts, Saudi Q2 GDP is strong, UAE may double oil expansion plans
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ cut its quota for the first time since 2020, by just 100k b/d, but Brent crude still dipped below $90. * The Iran nuclear deal may have lost momentum, even as its uranium stockpile reaches critical levels * The Saud...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s fiscal deficit eased in 2021, Bahrain’s record Q2 current surplus, violence in Iraq & Libya threatens oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped on recession fears, despite potential production concerns, and an OPEC+ cut is not expected. * OPEC+ sharply revised its forecasts and now sees a 300k b/d supply deficit in 2023, particularly in Q4. * There were...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hints at oil cuts, UAE ambassador returns to Iran, tourism recovers in Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Aug 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi oil minister roiled markets by hinting at possible production cuts. * This came as Iran submitted a “reasonable” response to the EU on the nuclear deal text. * The UAE is sending its ambassador back to Iran afte...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded, Bahrain & Qatar see H1 surpluses, IMF proposes Saudi fiscal rules
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Hopes grew that Iran and the US will compromise to restore the nuclear deal. * Aramco achieved record profits but plans lower-than-expected capex this year. * IMF Article IV praised Saudi policy but urged it to maintain t...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman mulls EDO sukuk amidst H1 surplus, Kuwait hikes rates further, nuclear deal text “final”
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to $100 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, even though OPEC reduced its own. * The Iran nuclear deal text was finalized, and political decisions are pending on whether to sign it. * The Saudi ministry o...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+’s tiny taper, Saudi's large Q2 fiscal surplus, Kuwait heads to elections
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ tapered by just 100k b/d but rising US stocks helped knock prices to a six-month low. * Iran nuclear talks are back on in Vienna, in perhaps the final opportunity for a deal. * PMIs remain strong in July in Qatar, S...

GULF WEEKLY: All bar Kuwait hike by 75bp, grand plans unveiled for The Line/Neom, Kuwait has a new prime minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Libyan production has nearly recovered, and the US announced additional strategic oil releases. * OPEC+ sources have downplayed US hopes for a major supply boost in September. * Once again Kuwait limited its rate hike to ...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden-MBS bump fists, Sharjah junked, Oman’s Q1 GDP looks weak
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose this week despite Biden’s Saudi visit and a restart in some Libyan facilities. * Gulf bond issuance was down -80% y/y in H1, and loans were down by -31%. * MBS was likely pleased with the optics of Biden’s visit, d...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi opens airspace to Israel, oil touches post-Ukraine low, Libyan oil blockade may end
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Jul 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly fell to $94 on Thursday, its lowest since the invasion of Ukraine, amidst recession fears. * OPEC sees 2023 demand rising to 103m b/d (and 105.4m in Q4), well ahead of the IEA forecast. * Libya’s oil blockade ...

GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave peaks, Tecom declines after IPO, Kuwait-Bahrain bank merger
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell on recession concerns, briefly dipping below $100, despite growing turbulence in Libya. * The Covid wave may have peaked in early July, particularly in KSA, where daily cases have halved. * Saudi’s PMI rose to 57...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ kicks the can, Saudi provides liquidity for banks, Tahnoun visits Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ didn’t announce September allocations, and Macron worried about Saudi and UAE capacity. * US-Iran nuclear talks in Doha apparently made no progress but should reconvene in a few weeks. * Coronavirus infections have ...

UAE: Dubai’s economy neared pre-Covid levels in Q1 but a new Covid wave is now underway
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2022

Dubai's Q1 GDP shows that the non-oil sector as a whole had nearly returned to 2019 levels, albeit this recovery was weaker than in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain because of Dubai's greater exposure to pandemic-hurt sectors such as transport and retail trade. The key tourism sector got off to a weak st...

Qatar hosts US-Iran talks to try and break the nuclear deadlock
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Jun 2022

The US and Iranian nuclear negotiators are arriving in Doha shortly for their first (indirect) talks since the JCPOA discussions in Vienna went on an extended pause in March. There have been rumors that Iran might be willing to postpone a removal of the IRGC's terrorism designation, the main outs...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE bond, MBS visits Turkey, Bahrain’s Q1 GDP, Kuwait plans new elections
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The EU foreign policy chief is visiting Iran to try and revive the nuclear talks. * The UK and GCC have launched negotiations on a free trade agreement. * The IMF completed an Article IV mission to Saudi Arabia with a pos...