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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Unleashing repressed inflation feeds inertial inflation and delays recovery
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2016

Macri’s government inherited an economy with large macroeconomic disequilibria and extreme relative price misalignments. The disequilibria and misalignments created by capital and price controls and inefficient regulations distorted the functioning of most markets for goods and services. The n...

Tax amnesty in a volatile environment
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Jun 2016

Congress has finally approved the government’s broad-based legal bill, which incorporates changes in the social security and tax systems. The new law, called the "exceptional voluntary reporting system of tenure of national and foreign currency and other goods, locally and abroad” incorporates t...

A Dirty Float
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Jun 2016

In this report we review the trajectory of the peso, given BCRA polices vis-à-vis a floating exchange rate regime with FX interventions (i.e., a dirty float). The Central Bank started to buy currency for its reserves in mid-January, when the peso dropped below 13.5. Yet, it inverted its net buy...

Forecast Updates for 2016 and 2017
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 16 May 2016

This addendum presents the detailed forecast tables we promised to send to accompany the forecast revisions published in the April 29, 2016 Quarterly Outlook. To help the reader to identify the changes with respect to the forecasts we published in the Quarterly Outlook for January 2016 we have hi...

Economy underperforms expectations in first quarter
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Apr 2016

In the first quarter, the Argentine economy deviated from our expectations in three areas: inflation, growth, and foreign trade. Even though the market exchange rate is still within the range we had predicted, examining the functioning of the free floating foreign exchange market after the elimi...

​The formal end of Default
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2016

Today, once government pays Holdouts their judicial claims and with it enables BoNY to receive payments for restructured debt holders, Argentina will formally end a more than 14 years default. This represents (much needed) good news, not just for the sovereign, but for the economy as a whole as i...

​Court of appeal gave green light for debt placement and holdouts payment
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2016

Today the United Stated Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit confirmed Griesa´s ruling, by which it allows again Argentina to honor its debt commitments in the US market, and effectively worldwide. For a starters, Argentina will be able to pay its 2005/2010 restructured debt (Discounts and Par...

The Economy After the Holdouts Solution
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2016

The government delivered quite positively the first phase of its program of “economic normalization”. A key step was the progress in resolving the long-standing litigation with the holdouts. This includes the constructive negotiations and agreements already signed with nearly 90% of the holdouts ...

​Economic Heritage
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2016

Both, Prat Gasy’s press conference regarding the pre-agreement with Holdouts (Monday afternoon) and president Macri’s address to the nation during the inauguration of the current congress session (yesterday) had one aspect in common: a strong and direct criticism regarding the economic heritage t...

Press conference regarding debt restructuring
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Feb 2016

Just in time ahead of tomorrow’s opening session of the Congress, Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay and Finance Secretary Luis Caputo will give a press conference today to announce the agreement reached with Holdouts. The conference will happen today at 6pm Buenos Aires time (4pm NYC or 9pm Londo...

A brave monetary bet
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Feb 2016

Before the start of the new congressional session this Tuesday, for which Macri’s opening speech will probably include the announcement of a bill to be presented regarding the ongoing negotiations with the Holdouts, this report reviews some of the monetary policy modifications implemented so far ...

​FPV desertion ahead of debt restructuring agreement
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2016

The recent desertion of 12 congressional representatives from the Kirchnerist party “Frente para la Victoria” (FPV) to form, together with other 3 dissident peronists, a 15 man strong non-K Peronist block (Bloque Justicialista - BJ), might not be very surprising. We anticipated such political shi...

​Debt restructuring negotiations
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2016

Many expectations were set on this government’s debt restructuring proposal for Holdouts. As might have been expected, contrary to the former Kirchnerist proposals, Macri’s team did not refer to the 2005/2010 debt restructuring conditions, nor did it discuss the principal of the debt owed. With a...

A Promising Start
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 26 Jan 2016

The newborn administration has taken the right steps in its first weeks in office with major announcements: first, the removal of FX controls; second, the elimination of export taxes in all agriculture and industrial exports, with the reduction from 35% to 30% in the case of soybean products; thi...

A Promising Start (but Big Challenges Ahead)
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Dec 2015

In just two weeks, Mauricio Macri has already followed through on his first electoral promise: to eliminate the exchange rate controls and the main taxes and restrictions on foreign trade. The realignment of relative prices that started with the exchange rate unification and the elimination of...

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