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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A free FX market, at last
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Finally the long anticipated day came. Argentina liberalized its FX rate, abandoning irrational and anachronistic capital controls implemented towards the end of 2011. Those controls kept Argentina in a contradictive state regarding its FX-rate-regime. The official FX market was a quasi-fixed reg...

Alea iacta est
ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Dec 2015

In this report, we are going to revise some of the political and economic challenges that Macri will face, in order to better understand the announcements he is expected to make soon after swearing in. Those challenges include the lax monetary policy fueled not only by the monetization of the ...

​Alea iacta est: Macri President
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2015

With 98.4% of the total votes counted, at the moment of writing these lines, and with Macri obtaining a 2.9% lead over Scioli, there is no doubt left that Mauricio Macri will become, on December 11th, Argentina’s new president. This represents an important change in the political ideology of the ...

A Balanced Presidential Debate
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Nov 2015

Yesterday’s presidential debate between Scioli and Macri ended up being relatively balanced, even though online polls indicate a favorable bias in favor of the opposition candidate. The debate is therefore unlikely to have generated a land-slide shift in voter’s preferences, leaving the impressio...

A Political Earthquake in the Making
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 13 Nov 2015

An unexpected political earthquake shook the country on October 25. First, Daniel Scioli beat Mauricio Macri by less than 3 percentage points when most opinion polls had anticipated a gap of nearly 10 percentage points between Scioli and Macri, the new frontrunner. Second but not least, María Eug...

​Massa’s very explicit “implicit support” for Macri
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Oct 2015 · 2 responses

Without mentioning Macri or Alianza Cambiemos,.Sergio Massa expressed yesterday UNA’s positions ahead of the ballotage on November 22nd. Throughout the press conference, Massa and his main political allies, such as De la Sota and Lavagna, made it clear that they would not support the official can...

Macri’s surprising election
ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Oct 2015

The very close results of the presidential election between the official candidate, Scioli, and its main contester, Macri, from the opposition alliance Cambiemos, represented a positive surprise for the market and a painful reality-check for the government. Scioli managed to gather 36.9% of th...

Ballotage it is! And Macri even managed an initial lead over Scioli.
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2015

With so far 76% of the votes accounted for, the prelaminar results indicate that there will be a second round presidential election on November the 22nd, i.e. Scioli did not manage to win in the first round. Not only did the governor of the Province of Buenos Aires miss the 40% hurdle (so far wit...

A Balance of Payment Crisis in the Making?
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Sep 2015

After the primary elections in August and with less than a month to go for the general presidential election on October 25th, political analysis shifted back to polls, in an attempt to anticipate the awaited outcome. Yet, despite the fact that more than a month passed since the primaries and many...

Political Readings
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

The results of last month’s Mandatory, Simultaneous and Open Primaries (PASO in Spanish) largely ratified the previous electoral polls. That is, they suggested the possible victory of the governing party, Frente para la Victoria (FpV), in October’s presidential elections, but not one strong enoug...

A first victory of Scioli, but not yet enough to ensure Presidency
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 10 Aug 2015

With close to 95% of total votes counted, the results of yesterday’s primary elections are clear and not too different from what the polls hinted in the previous weeks. Scioli emerged as the “winner” but not necessarily strong enough to ensure a first round victory in the October elections, depen...

A Heavy Burden
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary In Argentina nobody discusses the need for a correction in economic policy. The debate is only about the scale and the speed of the required adjustments. The old debate concerning “gradualism versus shock” has returned with the intensity it had in the literature of stabilization...

Electoral Economics
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the fiscal imbalance continues to deteriorate, activity indicators have been showing signs of improvement over the last months. Such relatively “benign” economic change ahead of the elections is no coincidence. Contrary to 2014, the Government has not only relaxed its fisc...

Continuity versus Change
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 21 May 2015

Executive Summary Recent opinion polls do not dismiss the possibility that Daniel Scioli could be elected President in the first round of the October election. Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa, and some other less relevant candidates, are still competing for the non-Kirchnerist vote, which accordi...

Returning to the “markets”?
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 May 2015

Executive Summary With the objective of validating access to the local capital market and softening the financing burden of sterilization costs on the Central Bank, the government reversed its prior “capital market independent” strategy, placing AR$ and US$ debt. The US$ debt placement not only h...

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