Country Insights

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Unexpected results in the Primaries - Game Over for Macri?
ARGENTINA - In Brief 12 Aug 2019 2 responses
The results for the government in the obligatory, simultaneous primary elections (PASO) have been much worse than expected. The Kirchnerists obtained a landslide victory, in particular for candidates for president and governor of the province of Buenos Aires, i.e., the two most critical electoral...

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Lower inflation and incipient recovery improves economic prospects
ARGENTINA - Forecast 23 Jul 2019
Monthly inflation fell from 4.7% in March to 2.7% in June. Early indicators, based on online prices, suggest that monthly inflation may end July at close to 2%. And economic activity indicators, though still in negative territory compared with 2018, show improvements with respect to Q1 2019. This...

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Electoral kickoff
ARGENTINA - Report 12 Jul 2019 1 response
The electoral campaign for the August 9 open primaries officially started on July 12. As they are mandatory and simultaneous, all candidates have to participate. However, as happened in previous elections, most political parties have already decided who will be their only candidate for the lea...

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​A truly political tangle: PJ-Pichetto as Macri’s vice-presidential candidate
ARGENTINA - In Brief 11 Jun 2019 1 response
In our last monthly report (“Political tango or political tangle?”) we echoed the view that in case Massa abandoned Alternativa Federal to join forces with the Kirchnerists (as is expected to be announced any moment), that Macri might consider the possibility of widening the Cambiemos´ coalition ...

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Political tango or political tangle?
ARGENTINA - Report 04 Jun 2019 2 responses
In this report, we review the current political discussions ahead of the presidential elections. We consider this essential to better understand the economic implications of the current political moves and countermoves. As we move closer to June 12 (the deadline for the recognition of politica...

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Cristina Fernández de Kirchner runs for vice-president
ARGENTINA - In Brief 20 May 2019
In a very professionally produced video, with a strong emotional language, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) confirmed this Saturday that she would run in August in the primary election for president with Alberto Fernandez, the former Chief of Cabinet during Nestor Kirchner’s mandate. The surp...

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Government tries to stabilize the exchange rate as expectations worsen
ARGENTINA - Forecast 29 Apr 2019 1 response
During the first quarter of 2019, the Argentine economy performed worse than expected by the government, by the IMF and by most private forecasters. Inflation was much higher than anticipated. The exchange rate, in pesos per dollar, began depreciating rapidly in March towards the upper limit o...

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Higher than expected inflation drives BCRA to announces new monetary measures
ARGENTINA - In Brief 16 Apr 2019
Today, during the IPOM presentations and shortly after March CPI was published by the INDEC (with a higher than expected monthly inflation rate of 4.7%m/m and an annual rate of 54.7%y/y), the BCRA announced new measures regarding the FX band and banking regulation, in an effort to control inflati...

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Some polls start to show Macri losing the presidential election
ARGENTINA - Report 16 Apr 2019
In our recent report “Struggling with Stagflation” we pointed out that the current administration is facing the difficult political challenge of overcoming a severe recession, with little time for the economy to bounce before the elections - or put differently, with only a short time for the vote...

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Struggling with stagflation
ARGENTINA - Report 12 Apr 2019
Macri´s political outlook into the October elections continues to face the challenge of overcoming adverse economic indicators. This is taking place despite the financial support of the IMF, whose USD 10.8bn tranche reached the BCRA reserves this week. The combination of very high inflation and a...

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​Monetae Pax II
ARGENTINA - In Brief 15 Mar 2019
Although not genuinely unsurprising, February inflation data was still disappointing. The 3.8%m/m brought the annual rate to 51%y/y, accumulating 6.8% in the first two months of the year. As in January, the chief diver was not only utilities but also food. Moreover, once more a key component of t...

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Monetæ Pax
ARGENTINA - Report 04 Mar 2019
​As usual, at this time of the year, Argentine politics and economic activity wake up from their summer lull. Friday's opening of the ordinary 2019 congressional session was the official kick-off. President Macri’s State of the Union address was a firm defense of his government’s achievements, de...

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Detailed forecast for the Argentine economy 2019 and 2020
ARGENTINA - Forecast 07 Feb 2019
​This report complements the first quarterly forecast, entitled, “Argentina 2019: at a crossroad again” offering detailed projections for the most relevant variables for one of the three scenarios described in that forecast. We assume that Macri’s government will be able to fully implement the...

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Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again
ARGENTINA - Forecast 11 Jan 2019
The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would have on the elector...

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Inflation is receding but political uncertainty keeps the risk premium high
ARGENTINA - Report 21 Dec 2018
​Monthly inflation went down in November and will probably recede even more in December. This is the consequence of the stability of the exchange rate that was achieved since the beginning of October when the Central Bank announced its constant monetary base target for the period October 2018 to ...