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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Policy mistakes and a severe draught worsen economic projections
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Apr 2023

The trends of the main indicators of the economy for 2023 and the projections under a best-case scenario in 2024 and 2025 continue to be those described in our January 10, 2023 forecast. However, as we expected, the government has made no progress in reducing fiscal imbalances or relative price d...

Massa prepares new measures amidst conditions set by the IMF Executive Board during the fourth review approval
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

During the weekend the IMF Executive Board approved the fourth revision of the EFF, allowing an immediate disbursement of SDR 4bn (approximately USD 5.4bn). According to the IMF press release, “All quantitative performance criteria through end-December 2022 were met with some margin, supported by...

Annual National Inflation climbs above 100%
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Mar 2023 · 1 response

INDEC's official inflation index for February provides information worth reviewing. For starters, the annual inflation rate climbed to a new record high, not seen since the end of 1991, when Argentina was leaving behind its 1989-1990 period of hyper-inflation. Needless to say, this is bad news fo...

Peso debt swap with a renewed BCRA put option to shield the domestic debt market ahead of the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Mar 2023

Tomorrow, Thursday, March 9, from 10:00 AM to 3:30 PM (BA time), the Treasury will be receiving bids to participate in a debt swap to extend the maturity of peso debt instruments, offering inflation-adjusted instruments maturing between April 2024 and February 2025. The government aims to push fo...

The government officially initiates debate ahead of the election, with rising inflation as a background
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Feb 2023

On February 16, President Alberto Fernández (AF) formally initiated the government’s internal debate on what electoral strategy it will adopt for the upcoming elections. Effectively, the debate is about who will run as a presidential candidate in the primaries and what will be the coalition forma...

Government announces a debt buyback in an environment of ideological blinders
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Jan 2023

Economic Minister Sergio Massa announced that the government would start a debt buyback program for Global Bonds, starting with a USD 1bn target for the short end of the curve, specifically for the Global 29 and Global 30. Given the recent peso weakness, in particular in the informal cash market ...

Stabilization and growth can only materialize with a new government
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Jan 2023

During the last four months of 2022 the economy performed in line with the “optimistic” scenario of our forecast from August 23, 2022. There are no reasons to introduce changes to our forecast for 2023. However, to forecast the economy in 2024 it is necessary to discuss the political and institut...

CFK spoke after the government rejected the Supreme Court ruling
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Dec 2022

Tuesday afternoon, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) participated, with the background of the latest dispute of the government with the Supreme Court, in the inauguration of a sports facility in Avellaneda (a district of the Greater Buenos Aires area), accompanied by the governor of the Provin...

After being sentenced, CFK announces that she will not run in 2023
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 06 Dec 2022

Today, the judges of the second federal oral court, found Cristina Fernández de Kirchner guilty of fraudulent administration in determent of the State. After three years of public trials, she received a 6-year prison sentence, in addition to a perpetual disqualification to exercise public office ...

The Argentine economy is becoming increasingly distorted
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The government's handling of the exchange rate is leading to increasing distortions in the economy, affecting both exports and imports. In terms of exports, the production of goods is becoming increasingly discouraged by the taxes imposed on it and by the arbitrary restrictions on imports of int...

Politics in times of high inflation
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In a context of rising inflation and low government confidence indices, at last Thursday's speech on the “Day of the Militancy” (the day when parties celebrate the commitment and support of their voters), CFK presented herself in a rock-star manner, in a crowded “Ciudad de La Plata” Stadium. She ...

The government will be unable to reduce inflation or accumulate foreign reserves
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Nov 2022

The rate of inflation persists above 6% per month, and the government has no effective tools to bring it down. In the past, the tools used to fight inflation were, alternatively, the exchange rate, freezing utility prices, containing nominal wage rises, and increasing interest rates (or quantitat...

Review of the most recent cabinet changes
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Oct 2022

President Alberto Fernandez announced on Monday three cabinet changes, for the ministries of Labor, Social Development, and Women and Gender Equality. Of the three, the most significant cabinet changes were undoubtedly those of Labor and Social Development. The newcomers will have to endure a com...

Argentina: walking a tightrope
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Sep 2022

The recent staff-level agreement Argentina reached with the IMF on the 2Q review, under the Extended Fund Facility arrangement, was not surprising. This staff-level agreement lays the way for the formal approval of the IMF´s board of directors (expected to meet on October 7) and with it, the thir...

The Argentine economy will only deteriorate over the remainder of the Fernandez Presidency: forecasts for 2022 and 2023
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 23 Aug 2022

Even assuming that the government is able to comply with the fiscal and monetary targets set in the EFF program negotiated with the IMF (a primary fiscal deficit around 2.5% of GDP and monetary financing of the Treasury by 1% of GDP in 2022; and 1.9% of GDP and 0.6% of GDP for those parameters, r...

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