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Russia political/pandemic update: history repeats itself, once again
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Apart from the many unpleasant social, economic, and political effects of the coronavirus pandemic, a few developments gradually affected economic behavior in a rather creative fashion. One of them was that many employers and employees realized that one could do almost the same job without going ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2022

Liquidity in the domestic market remains muted as a significant amount of cash was withdrawn from the banking system during partial mobilization. Given that interest rates on the retail deposits are relatively low, the return of these funds to the system may take much more time than was in March-...

September statistics bring no surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2022

Rosstat reported that output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade) was down y-o-y by 3.5% and 0.8% in August and 9M22. Some sectors, such as agriculture, construction, and paid consumer services, performed relatively well, having grown by 5.2%, 5.2%, an...

Russian macro: The 2023 economic outlook increasingly uncertain as GDP contraction is moderate in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Nov 2022

In mid-summer, it became clear that Russia’s GDP could contract less this year compared to the earlier thinking - accounting for the magnitude of the geopolitical shock the country has faced (or chosen). The effect turned out to be less significant than was considered right after the start of the...

The CBR keeps the key rate unchanged
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2022

The Central bank decided to keep the key rate at 7.5% but acknowledged that inflationary pressure remains low. In reality, Russia had m-o-m deflation for three consecutive months in the summer. In September, deflation ended, and CPI grew by 0.05% m-o-m. Inflation y-o-y fell to 13.7%. Rosstat repo...

The Russian industrial growth to be in the red in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2022

Rosstat reported that the Russian industrial output was up by 0.4% y-o-y in 9M22. Even though y-o-y growth was less negative in 3Q22 (-1.3%) than in 2Q22 (-2.5%), it looks as though in 4Q22, the contraction is likely to deepen, and in 2022 as a whole, industrial output will contract. In September...

Russia sovereign debt: Minfin returns to the primary market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Oct 2022

After a month-long pause, the Russian Ministry of Finance returned to the primary debt market, placing OFZs totaling R50 bln last week. However, it would be a big stretch to call it a success, because the borrower was forced to offer double-digit yields on fixed-rate paper and, in addition, it pl...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

The oil price remains volatile. In early October, it moved up as OPEC+ decided to cut production, then it slid on the back of general fears of potential economic recession. The US decision to sell 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also influenced the market. The Russi...

Weekly inflation is moderate, inflation y-o-y likely to fall by 100 bps in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on October 10, inflation was at 0.03% w-o-w. Inflation MTD reached 0.06%, and the YTD inflation moved to 10.53% on that date. Despite high uncertainty and the tense geopolitical situation, there are no signs that inflation may accelerate significantly. I...

The budget was in surplus in 9M22, but turning into a deficit in 2022 as a whole amid soaring expenditures
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Oct 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget posted a small surplus in 9M22 (around R55 bn). However, an expected deficit in 4Q will significantly overlap this surplus as expenditures are to soar. According to the initial budget version, the government planned to spend R23.7trln, whil...

The current account narrows in 3Q22 but is still exceptionally strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022

According to the preliminary estimates published by the CBR, Russia's current account reached $198.4bn in 9M22 as it narrowed in 3Q22 to $51.9 bn (versus $61.8bn in 1Q22 and 76.7bn in 2Q22). The current account remains exceptionally strong and is likely to be so in 4Q22 as well. Exports of goods ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Oct 2022

Domestic financial markets were hit by the announcement of partial mobilization in the second half of October and remained under pressure in the aftermath of the decision to recognize the results of referendums held in Donbas and neighboring areas and incorporate them in Russia. The Western count...

Russian macro: economy challenged by geopolitics and deteriorating demographics
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Oct 2022

According to Rosstat, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and transport) in 8M22 was down y-o-y by 1.8% and 0.4% in August and 8M22, therefore, indicating that the economy was heading to moderate conduction in 2022 as a whole. In the current geopoliti...

Russia political/pandemic update: raising the stakes beyond the point of no return
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Oct 2022

September appeared to be another very peculiar month in Russia as after seven months, the country’s “military operation” in Ukraine abruptly turned into something very different when partial mobilization was announced and the country’s authorities recognized the Donbas region together with some n...

Consumer lending grew strongly in August but may decelerate or even stagnate in 4Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

The CBR reported that consumer lending was on the rise as total credit granted by banks to households grew in August by 1.1% m-o-m and reached R27.4 trln. It was the second consecutive month that consumer credit increased (it grew by the same 1.1% m-o-m in July). In the two preceding months, it r...

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