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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2022

The ruble touched the R/$50 mark recently and encouraged the Ministry of Finance’s verbal interventions. The ministry now plans to discuss ways of “weakening” the exchange rate. One of the ways considered by the authorities could result in purchasing currencies of “friendly” countries on the open...

Economic growth gradually turns more negative in May amid uneven dynamics by sectors and different challenges they face
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Jun 2022

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was up by 1.7% y-o-y in 5M22 but down by 3.2% y-o-y in May alone. Industry and transport posted a quite moderate y-o-y decline in May (around 1.7%-1.8% each) while retail sales collapsed by 10.1% - mainly due to the falling activity in th...

Russian macro: Russia is detached
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2022

The Russian ruble has demonstrated a trajectory of extraordinary shape in recent months. With this in mind, a few questions arise, and one of them is about the long-term implications that the ruble’s very unusual trajectory might cause for the Russian economy. Some other factors that accompanied ...

The government to amend the 2022 budget and start drafting the budget for 2023 and beyond
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2022

The Russian media reported that the government started reconsidering the budget plan for 2022 and drafting the federal budget for the years beyond. The final figures may be slightly different from what is being discussed now but generally, the medium-term budgetary outlook is reasonable, albeit q...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2022

As the oil price remains high (be it Brent or discounted Urals) the ruble continued to appreciate as the West’s pressure on Russia mounts and the economy is being gradually disconnected from the global financial system, dominated by the West. Russia’s demand for FX collapsed amid restricted expor...

Russia’s y-o-y inflation slows amid w-o-w deflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2022

Rosstat reported that deflation of 0.14% was registered in seven days ending on June 10. The MTD consumer prices fell by the same 0.14%, and the YTD inflation decreased to 11.64%. As in inflation in June 2021 was 0.69% m-o-m a further y-o-y disinflation is expended this month. Consumer prices are...

The 5M22 federal budget surplus widens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2022 · 1 response

The Finance Ministry reported that in 5M22 the government collected in the federal budget 48.1% of the annually targeted revenues, i.e., R12.0 trln from R25.0 trln. Total revenues in May reached R2.0 trln, which is fewer than in the previous months as the ruble looked too strong and the ruble-den...

CBR cuts the key rate by 150 bps, more cuts expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

The CBR cut the key rate by 150 bps to 9.5% amid rapid disinflation and an abnormally strong ruble. The latter factor also encouraged the government to cancel obligatory FX sales by exporters introduced after Russia announced its “special military operation” in Ukraine. The regulator now expects ...

The current account and the trade surpluses narrow in May, albeit still remain wide
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As in the aftermath of geopolitical tensions and sanctions, the CBR stopped publishing detailed information on foreign trade regularly. It now provides monthly only a few numbers related to Russia’s current account and foreign trade balances. The regulator reported that in 5M22, the estimated cur...

Russian macro: shocks and pressure
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2022

The initial shock associated with Russia’s “special military operation” has evolved into a kind of permanent pressure on the Russian economy due to the restrictive measures imposed by Western governments and the voluntary exodus of many foreign companies that operated in the country. Even though ...

Consumer lending rates remained high in April and are unlikely to have dropped much in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

The CBR reported that the average weighted consumer lending rate didn’t change much in April, despite the fact that the regulator cut the key rate from 20% to 17% (effective from April 11). Monthly average lending rate for credits with maturity up to 1Y, were at 25.79%, while interest rates for l...

Russian political/pandemic update: coronavirus retreats, politicians advance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2022

A hundred days ago, on February 24, Russian troops entered Ukraine, and this day became a historical milestone that marked the beginning of a rapid rupture of economic, political, and cultural ties between Russia and the West. Since then, the EU has announced six packages of sanctions against Rus...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2022

As the oil prices remain high (be it Brent or Urals which differ from each other by around $35/bbl) while Russia’s imports have seemingly collapsed on the back of western restrictive sanctions and shrinking domestic demand, the ruble strengthened and fluctuated around R/$60, which is a too strong...

Economy contracts in April m-o-m, albeit unevenly by sectors and not as much as was expected earlier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jun 2022

Rosstat reported that Russian industrial output contracted in April by 1.6% y-o-y, while it was still up by 3.9% y-o-y in 4M22. The mining sector was down in April by 1.6% y-o-y as well, and it was up by 5.9% in 4M22. The same figures for manufacturing are minus 2.1% for April and plus 3.2% for 4...

Bank lending to households shrinks in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jun 2022

The CBR reported that total outstanding household debt to banks decreased in April to R26.8 trln (including an insignificant part of credits in FX) from over R27.0 trln as of April 1, 2022 (i.e., by 0.9% m-o-m). It implied that banks granted fewer new credits than households repaid in April. In M...

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