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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2022

As the western countries dramatically cut exports to Russia, demand for FX fell considerably, and the ruble appreciated in recent days to around the R/$80 level (though, the ruble still remained volatile). The ruble appreciation was also backed by capital controls and a reduced appetite to take m...

Inflation w-o-w slows
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w in seven days ending April 15, decelerated to 0.20% from 0.66% during the previous week. Food prices generally continued to rise albeit more slowly, however weekly deflation was recorded for many products in the non-food segment, such as some types of consume...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for a good year ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

The Kazakh National Bureau of Statistics published the 1Q22 economic indicators, and it looks as though the Kazakh economy was doing quite well during this period. The so-called "short-term economic indicator" (covering around 70% of the country’s economic activity) was up by 6.5% y-o-y in 1Q22. ...

Russia’s Epochal Turn: A New “Shock Therapy”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Apr 2022

As Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine is nowhere near its end the “special economic and financial operation” against Russia launched by the West also intensifies. It looks like a consensus is now forming that the Russian economy is set to contract by over 10% in 2022. Things may chang...

​The Federal budget surplus rises in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus reached R614bn and R1.151trln in March and 1Q22. The revenue collection was strong both on the side of oil-and-gas and the non-oil-and-gas taxes. In 1Q22, the government collected 28.7% of total targeted for 2022 revenues (31.2% of ...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

​Russia’s current account remained strong in 1Q22 and in March as well
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

The CBR published its first estimate of the country’s 1Q22 current account which reportedly reached $58.2 bn. The trade balance over the same period accounted for $66.3bn, as exports and imports reached $156.7bn and $90.4bn. All numbers looked strong, including for March as in January exports and...

The key rate cut to 17%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The CBR cut its key rate to 17% while referring to slowing w-o-w inflation, and the risk of further deterioration of the economic activity pressure on the financial sector as well. The regulator also hinted that further rate cuts are possible but the decisions will be data-dependent. High key rat...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

The Russian ruble has bounced back in recent days/weeks as more sanctions were announced and a great number of Western exporters terminated their business with Russia. Demand for imports in the country fell and amid a sort of capital controls combined with increased risk of holding money outside ...

​Markets are too optimistic, but mainly due to technical reasons
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

The Russian markets were traded in an optimistic mood this week. The ruble appreciated from R/$96 to 80 as markets reacted positively to the decision of the Russian authorities to switch gas payments to rubles. Meanwhile, in reality, it may have only a marginal effect - if implemented. The main r...

Russia political/pandemic update: the changing quarantine regime
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Ever since the Russian president launched a special mission in Ukraine, Russia became quite quickly disconnected from many countries. Meanwhile, Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell sharply from around 200K in mid-February to around 20K by the end of March. Given that Russia was almost com...

​Inflation y-o-y to reach 20% soon and erode domestic demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w in seven days ending on March 25, reached 1.16%. Prices keep rising across the board. Inflation MTD and YTD reached 6.60% and 8.91% while y-o-y figure moved up to 15.66% as estimated by the Economics Ministry. Inflation w-o-w moderated but it is likely that i...

Russian macro: in search of integrity
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Having experienced a shock, a month after the start of the military operation some Russian producers and ministries began talking about inevitable changes to their business plans. Even when things go in line with the plans made at the very top level, making one's own plans becomes increasingly co...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2022

As the oil price has moved higher, in recent days hovering around $120/bbl, the ruble bounced back and has seemingly stabilized. Accordingly, banks became less dependent on the liquidity provided by the CBR. Still, the ruble fluctuated in a wide range amid the unstoppable news flow. An idea to st...

Inflation in 2022 is likely to be the highest in twenty years
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that in the seven days ending on March 18, inflation reached 1.93%, therefore bringing the MTD and YTD tallies to 5.38% and 7.67%. Prices continue to rise fast across the board, and there are no signs yet that inflation w-o-w can decelerate materially any time soon. Inflation m-o...

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