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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP up by 4.7% in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2022

The Russian GDP reached nearly R130.1 trln in 2021 and was up by 4.7%. These numbers are higher than was expected earlier, however, permanent upward revisions of selected historical data during the year prompted that surprises from Rosstat could not be ruled out. Still, the currently available qu...

The Russian market: between a rock and a hard place
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Feb 2022

The Russian markets have been hit strongly in recent months. The situation became even more colorful as inflation accelerated not only in Russia, but also globally. This added extra flavor and intrigue. As Russian inflation reached 8.7% in January, while that in the US hit 7.5%, not too different...

The Federal budget posted a surplus in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues reached nearly R2.1 trln in January and were nearly 39% higher than in January 2021. These revenues accounted for 8.3% of the annual plan, i.e., exactly one-twelfth of it. Note, that tax collection in January is traditionally low a...

Economic performance wasn’t too bad in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022

Despite some noise about the vulnerability and the weakness of the Russian economy, which often appears in the media (especially at times of shocks), the country’s economic performance didn’t look bad either in 2020 or 2021. Having contracted by 2.7% in 2020, it looks as though economic growth wa...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022

In early February, the ruble moved to below R/$ 75, having traveled to over R/$80 at the end of January. As Russia and some leaders of NATO member countries are now engaged in discussions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “scheduled” by a group of enthusiasts in the Western countries, looks now less...

Estimated current account surplus hits record in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022

The Russian Central bank published its flash estimate of the main elements of the country’s balance of payments. The current account surplus reached $19bn, while the trade balance widened to $21.4bn. It was greater by more than a factor of two compared to the same numbers reported in January 2021...

Stronger-than-expected 2021 industrial output growth is a good start for 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022

The Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output increased by 5.3% in 2021, i.e., more than was expected earlier. On several occasions, it was mentioned in previous notes of this series that since mid-2020, every month, the Rosstat revises up previously published numbers. Generally, it is har...

​Minfin returns to the primary market
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2022

Today, the Finance Ministry placed 7-year OFZ worth R74.7 bln at 9.6%. As a reminder, the government cancelled primary auctions during the past two weeks because of the high volatility. The return to the market was successful, and total demand exceeded R100 bln. Moreover, the last time Minfin man...

Russia's pandemic/political update: war of words in parallel worlds
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Feb 2022 · 1 response

As the Omicron strain entered Russia, the country’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate soared, having nearly attained 100K cases on January 28, and continued its upward journey quite fast in the days that followed, having reached nearly 126K as of February 1. This was not an unexpected increase as the...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022 · 1 response

As was expected, the Russian financial markets were very volatile in January as the noise about the “scheduled” Russia's invasion of Ukraine became louder and more annoying in recent weeks. One can expect volatility to remain elevated also in February regardless of whether the go-ahead takes plac...

​Consumer credit growth slows in December, as household deposit growth strengthens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022

CBR reported that household deposits increased in December by 5.5% m-o-m (5.8% if escrow accounts added) as the key rate was hiked amid accelerated inflation. In 2021 as a whole, household deposits grew by 13.3% as a result.At the same time, banks’ credit to households (mortgages and consumer cre...

Russian macro: the 2022 budget to be amended as revenues soar
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

In contrast to the planned deficit, the federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.5 trln, (i.e., below 0.4% of GDP) in 2021 amid soaring revenues, and the 2022 budget is already in question once again. The 2021 budget remained in surplus despite the fact that expenditures have been raised sign...

The CBR/ Minfin duo suspends FX interventions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

Today Central bank announced it is suspending daily FX purchases on the open market. These interventions are stipulated by the fiscal rule. Geopolitical tensions created significant pressure over the Russian assets since the start of the year. Since the beginning of the year the 5Y CDS contracts ...

The federal budget posts surplus despite several amendments of expenditures
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2022

According to Minfin’s preliminary budget execution statistics, the federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.5 trln, which should be slightly below 0.4% of GDP. The figure looks lower than we expected, but it only happened because expenditures were suddenly increased to R24.8 trln. A couple of...

Strong 2021 current account amid growing non-energy exports, higher energy prices, and a not-too-negative services balance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

The Central bank reported that the Russian current account surplus reached $120.3 bn in 2021, which was a bit less than expected as the investment income balance turned more negative ($41.6 bn in 2021 versus $34.1 bn in 2020). Russia’s trade surplus widened to $185.9 bn in 2021 as exports reached...

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