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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian macro: exchange rate in a comfort zone to favor growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jun 2021

Russian imports continued to soar in April – both in absolute and y-o-y terms. They reached $26.3 bln that month, a level not seen since mid-2014 (an increase of 49.4% y-o-y). In 2Q20 imports contracted relatively moderately (by 13.0% y-o-y) compared with the increase seen in April and the expect...

Russia’s inflation seems decelerating w-o-w but accelerates y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation during the period ending on June 15 was at 0.12%, which is lower than during the previous seven-day period when it was at 0.16%. As a result, inflation in the first two weeks of June reached 0.28%. Inflation y-o-y, however, still accelerate as the m-o-m infla...

Russia’s inflation seems decelerating w-o-w but accelerates y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation during the period ending on June 15 was at 0.12%, which is lower than during the previous seven-day period when it was at 0.16%. As a result, inflation in the first two weeks of June reached 0.28%. Inflation y-o-y, however, still accelerate as the m-o-m infla...

Russia’s 1Q21 GDP looks better than was reported earlier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that the 1Q21 GDP was down by 0.7% y-o-y, which is better than the initially reported 1.0% contraction. Mining was down by 7.4%, manufacturing was up by 0.6%. Trade (wholesale and retail) combine with auto repairs was up by 0.7%. The financial sector kept growing fast and was up ...

The federal budget and the current account balances strengthen in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 5m21, the federal government spent 41.9% of the annual plan (R21.5 trln). It means that the federal budget expenditures were allocated evenly so far – spending reached R9.0 trln. Federal budget revenues exceeded R9.3 trln (49.7% of the official plan) over the...

Russian Macro: Revising Forecasts Uр
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2021

Amid the ongoing global recovery, continuously loose monetary policies in the developed countries, and fiscal stimuli, oil and other commodity prices are likely to secure Russia’s strong current account surplus this year and next despite rapidly growing imports. The federal budget is likely to be...

Economic performance improves in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s economic performance looked better in early 2021 than was earlier reported. The statistical agency revised upward previously published monthly data for services, transportation, and some other segments of the economy. Apart from agriculture (which was almost flat y-...

Inflation remains high, prompting the CBR to hike the key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation in the last seven days of May was at 0.12%, and cumulative inflation in May reached 0.61% m-o-m, which is a kind of a flash estimate. It is not yet the final official figure due to be published on June 7. Even though Rosstat now publishes inflation numbers wi...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: going with the flow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2021

After a steady decline in early 2021, Russia’s daily infection cases descended in mid-March to below 10K, but there has been little progress since then. Daily cases have been hovering mostly between 8K and 9K, albeit occasionally exceeding the lower and the upper boundary of this band. It was a s...

Russia’s industrial growth gathers pace in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

Rosstat reported that industrial output rose y-o-y by 7.2% in April and by 1.1% in 4M21. Mining was still down by 1.8% and 5.7% y-o-y in April and 4M21. Similar numbers for manufacturing looked more impressive – 14.2% and 4.5%. In May and June, y-o-y growth will become double-digit in the mining ...

Russia’s current account to strengthen in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 May 2021

The Central bank estimated that Russia’s current account widened to $28.1bn in 4m21 as an estimate of the 1Q21 balance of payments published earlier suggested that the current account surplus was at $16.8bn. If so, then the current account was particularly strong in April. Meanwhile, according to...

Russia’s macro: Hiking the key rate to brake consumption growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2021

As Russia’s GDP growth is expected to remain moderate in 2021, the question now is what will happen next with interest rates, as the CBR raised the key rate by 25 bps at the end of March and by 50 bps a month later and hinted it will keep raising it further. What the regulator will do on June 11 ...

​The formally approved 2021 Russian budget is likely to be balanced
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the oil-and-gas revenues soared on a m-o-m basis and reached R893 bn in April 2021 (versus monthly average R540bn in 1Q21). This increase could be partially explained by lagged effects of the increased oil price earlier in the year. A bit weaker ruble in April a...

​Minfin doesn’t rule out buyback of floating-rate OFZs
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 May 2021

Today deputy Finance Ministry Mr Maximov said that the government is considering the launching of special tools to manage structure of sovereign debt. In particular, he mentioned that the current amount of floating-rate OFZs in circulation looks excessive and it would be reasonable to decrease it...

Russian Institutional Investors: Exposure to OFZ Boosted by Contraction of Deposits
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2021

In April, the CBR released data on investments of pensions funds and insurance companies for FY2020. The aggregate amount of assets of Russian institutional investors exceeded 9.5% of GDP. Certain acceleration in growth of assets was demonstrated by insurers due to generally low interest rates in...

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