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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian macro: The CBR - toward a “neutral”, albeit confusing monetary policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Russian Central bank raised its key policy rate by 25 bps last Friday. This move did not look necessary at this stage and for the time being it may be seen as relatively unimportant for the economy. What may be of greater importance is that the CBR clearly said that the key rate may go up fur...

​Inflation y-o-y likely to start slowing from 2Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation from March 10 to 15 was at 0.1%, while in previous weeks it remained consistently at 0.2% w-o-w. Prices on a broader group of products started to fall (including some vegetable prices) which helped inflation to decelerate. GKEM Analytica in the previous notes attri...

Industrial output is down in February y-o-y, but up m-o-m seasonally and calendar adjusted
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2021

As the Russian oil industry has still to comply with the OPEC+ deal, oil extraction remained suppressed in January and February (down by around 12% y-o-y in 2M21), while gas extraction was up by over 5% over the same period. As a result, the mining sector (including coal and metal ores) as a whol...

Decent fiscal performance in 2m21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2021

The Ministry of Finance reported that in February total federal budget revenues reached R1.25 trln ow which R0.545 trln came in as the oil-and-gas prices. Even though the Urals oil price in February 2021 was higher than in February 2020 ($60.78/bbl versus $54.24/bbl), oil-and-gas revenues in Febr...

Balance of payments strengthens in early 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2021

According to the CBR’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s current account surplus was at $13.1bn in 2m21, while the trade surplus reached $17.6bn. The latter figure is equal to the combined trade surplus in November and December 2020. The CBR has not yet published statistics on exports and imports –...

Pandemic/political update: looking for a change, but not now
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Mar 2021

Even though vaccination in Russia is going slowly, reported daily infection cases have fallen to around 11K, almost half the figure reported a month ago. Around 5.4 mln people were vaccinated at least with one shot in early March, which is very little relative to the country’s population. Nonethe...

Russian financial markets: securities to play a more significant role for households
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2021

The aggregate amount invested by Russian households in various financial instruments (outside deposits) almost doubled last year and reached R6 trln as of the end of 2020. The total number of brokerage accounts has already exceeded 10 mln units, but further rapid growth of this indicator is less ...

Russian macro: Emphasis on economic growth the country has been lacking
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Feb 2021

The Russian economy has somehow weathered the 2020 pandemic storm, avoided a deep recession despite low energy prices and is going to bounce back in 2021. But this year looks challenging as well, albeit in a different sense. The country’s economic growth has looked extremely unimpressive on avera...

​Economic activity continues to rebound in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that retail sales were down by a mere 0.1% in January, while in 4Q20 and 2020 as a whole they were down by 2.8% and 4.1% y-o-y. Food retail sales were down in January by 1.0% y-o-y (by 3.9% and 2.6% in 4Q20 and 2020 as a whole). Non-food retail was up by 0.9% in January y-o-y (an...

Demand for refinancing in CBR is decreasing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Today CBR has conducted the placement of 1-month and 1-year REPO loans. Banks raised R50 bln in the first category and expressed no interest in borrowing money for a longer period of time. As a result, the total amount of placement was the minimum since October 2020, when banks received R620 bln ...

Russia’s industrial output continues to gradually recover in January despite fewer working days than a year ago
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that the country’s industrial output contracted in January by 2.5% y-o-y. Mining was down by 7.1% and manufacturing by 1.0% y-o-y. In the same report, the statistical agency significantly revised up December 2020 statistics, particularly on the manufacturing side. The 4Q20 and an...

The Russian budget posted a small deficit in January as expenditures were up y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

Federal budget revenues dropped by 3.7% y-o-y in January amid 3.3% y-o-y growth of expenditures. Oil-and-gas revenues were down by 19.7%, while non-oil-and-gas revenues were up by 6.7% y-o-y. In January, the government collected 8.0% and spent 7.8% of the annual plan. The result looks good as usu...

​Minfin pushes OFZ yield curve up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021 · 1 response

Today the Finance Ministry conducted three primary OFZ auctions and raised R49.4 bln (in three placements), the best result since the beginning of the year. However, the cost that the borrower paid looks high. As a reminder, last week the Ministry cancelled the placement of fixed-rate paper due t...

Russia’s current account widens in January which creates a solid base for economic recovery
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

Russia’s current account and trade surplus widened in January relative to previous months. The current account surplus reached $6.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $9.4 bn. In 4Q20 as a whole, the current account surplus at $5.5bn, and the trade surplus was at $21.5 bn. Based on the CBR prelimi...

Russia political/pandemic update: Epidemiological situation stabilizes, politics gets more intriguing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2021

In the aftermath of the New Year holiday period, the country’s daily registered cases of newly infected people fell from around 27K (where they were at the very end of 2020) to 16-17K as of early February. Even though the authorities did not tighten restrictions, it looks as though Russians mostl...

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