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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The current account widens in October, while imports may have remained stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2020

The Russian Central bank reported that in 10m20 the current account surplus reached $29.9bn, which means that in October alone this surplus was rather strong having reached $5.8bn. In 9m20 the current account surplus was much lower – $24.1bn, and in 3Q20 it was just $2.5bn. The trade balance wide...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: “Rescuing drowning people is the work of the drowning people themselves”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Politically, October In Russia appeared a quieter month than the previous ones as the Navalny saga suddenly evaporated from the geopolitical scene, no fresh comments on the Nord Stream 2 came from either side, i.e., its adversaries or proponents, there was no major news from the Belarusian prote...

OFZ: Supply is evaporating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Nov 2020

October was the most successful month ever for the Finance Ministry in terms of OFZ issuance – it raised R1.5 trln. The main buyers were local commercial banks, which were offered floating-rate bonds with about a 50-bp premium to RUONIA. As a result, the government came very close to its annual b...

Economic policy and growth: short-term problems – no excuse to ignore long-term challenges
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2020

Rosstat reported that Russian industry was down by 2.9% in 9M20 and by 5.0%y-o-y in September. Manufacturing was flat y-o-y in 9M20 and down by 1.6% in September, while mining posted a 10.0% and 6.5% y-o-y contraction in 9M20 and in September alone, respectively. The results do not look too bad, ...

The Russian industry’s dichotomy: manufacturing flat, mining down y-o-y in 9m20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2020

Rosstat reported that the industrial production was down in 3Q20 by 5.0% y-o-y, while in 9m20 it was down by 2.9%. Y-o-y contraction was deeper in 2Q20 (-6.5% y-o-y). It was mostly mining which held the industrial growth in the negative area, as OPEC+ deal had a strong impact on oil volumes. In 3...

Russian macro: Combined 2020-21 budget plan reasonable, external balance stable – expect unhurried growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2020

The Finance Ministry announced that both oil and gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September, with VAT and excise taxes accounting for the bulk of non-oil and gas revenues, pointing to a continued gradual rebound of the economy. In 9M20, the go...

OFZ: Borrowing Plan 2021 looks realistic, but implies extra risks for Minfin
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2020

The Russian government has set a new annual record for domestic borrowing: it raised more than R3 trln on the open market year to date (the FY19 figure was slightly above R2 trln). Domestic local banks brought the lion’s share of demand, in contrast to the previous year, when international player...

Federal budget deficit moderate in September as expenditure growth didn’t impress yet
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2020

The Finance Ministry announced that both the oil-and-gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September as total revenues exceeded R1.5 trln (versus around R1.3 trln in July and August each month). In 9m20, total revenues reached R13.2 trln, including ov...

Russia’s foreign debt decreased as the ruble weakened
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2020

The Russian Central bank reported that the country’s total foreign debt decreased from January 1 to October 1by over $30bn to around $461.2. Sovereign debt shrank by over $10bn to around $59.4bn – largely on the back of the weakened ruble, which affected the value of the ruble-denominated bonds h...

Current account in surplus in 3Q, but it is artificially small
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2020

The Central bank reported that according to its preliminary estimate, the current account surplus reached $24.1 bn in 9m20, while in 3Q20, it was $2.5 bn. As according to the revised numbers, the current account balance temporarily turned into a deficit in 2Q20 (which was -0.5 bn), the ruble sinc...

OFZ issuance: Finance Ministry fulfilled 17.3% of quarterly plan in one auction day
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

On Wednesday the Russian Finance Ministry placed a record high amount of OFZ. During two auctions it managed to place a 10-year floater (linked to RUONIA rate) worth to R316 bln and a 5-year fixed-rate paper worth to R30 bln. In such a way the Government covered more than 17% of the quarterly pla...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: The light is dim, the tunnel looks longer
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2020

It looks as though earlier hopes to contain the spread of the coronavirus within a relatively short time frame evaporated in September. Newly registered cases in Europe (including Russia) started to rise much faster, and in the Americas they remained high, as well. The epidemiological situation i...

Russia and the West: Recent developments seal the split; economy to adjust
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2020

The Russian ruble remained under pressure for some time, aggravated recently by fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's regaining momentum (both in Russia and Western Europe) and potential new sanctions against Russia. It looks as though sanctions are mounting on Russia permanently, so the pressure on t...

The Russian economy in August: slow recovery continues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2020

Rosstat reported that in August, the economic recovery continued across the board, albeit slowly. Most of the indicators looked better y-o-y than in July, especially taking into account that this year August had fewer working days than a year ago. Some previous data have been revised up slightly,...

Russian industry: gradual recovery to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2020

According to Rosstat, in August the Russian industry continued its gradual m-o-m recovery, therefore moving toward relatively moderate contraction of around 5.5% in 2020 as a whole. Even in the case of mining, where the oil production is still under the pressure of the OPEC+ deal, there was over ...

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