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Russian economic policy: Searching for a pass between Scylla and Charybdis
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2020

As the number of newly registered daily coronavirus cases in Russia exceeded 1,100 for a third day in a row, thus bringing the total number to 8,672 people as of April 8 (morning data), it looks increasingly likely that tighter lockdown measures are likely and they may last longer than was annou...

Russia’s response to the virus update: a mix of reasonable macroeconomic policy and somewhat chaotic measures to support the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2020

As Russian financial markets bounced back and the ruble strengthened, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how the situation may evolve in Russia. Even though oil prices have jumped, they may easily go down if the situation deteriorates globally. In trying to address these issues the ...

Virus and the Russian economy: making efforts to decouple
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Apr 2020 · 2 responses

As Russia remains on a week-off regime and people are not supposed to leave their homes, the number of Russians who contracted the virus continued to rise at a high rate in recent days, albeit from a relatively low level (given the size of the country). Around 200,000 Russians who had either retu...

Russia: Trying to contain the spread of the virus
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Mar 2020

President Putin announced that next week will be a week off and encouraged Russians to stay at home to limit the spread of the virus. As the total number of registered cases rose to 658 (up 163 in one day) this step looks reasonable as at this stage Russia still has the chance to avoid scenarios ...

Russia amid global havoc: Regulators remain calm, so far…
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2020

Last week, Russian financial markets were strongly hit by the further global selloff and rising fears about the government’s financial position as the oil price fell dramatically. As a reminder, on Wednesday, March 18, Brent tested $25/bbl (the lowest level since 2003), two times lower than early...

Russia and viruses: balances to shrink as global recession nears
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2020

After the Fed cut its rate nearly to zero and announced plans to massively expand its balance in an attempt to limit the effects of a forthcoming global recession, US stock market futures plummeted by around 5%, followed by a deep contraction in Europe, including Russia. This panic sent the oil p...

Russia: Ready for Low Oil Price
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

As the oil price (Brent) touched $30/bbl on March 9 in the aftermath of OPEC+ agreement falling apart, obvious concerns emerged about the Russian budget and to some extent the balance of payments. The latter is likely to stay positive as the ruble immediately weakened which will pressure imports....

Macro and markets: Russia and global turbulence
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2020

Risk-off trades dominated the markets last week, affecting almost all financial assets in the EM universe, as well as commodity markets. In response to Covid-19 the Fed cut its rate by 50 bps, and other leading central banks may follow suit, also softening their monetary policy, while governments...

Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2020

As the Russian economy reportedly grew by a mere 1.3% in 2019, and this rate of growth looks much lower than the revised 2.5% in 2018, the key question now is not only what has caused this deceleration but also where the economy is heading in 2020. Rosstat reported that industrial output was ...

Russian economic trends: The economy is not what it seems (report preview)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 1.1% in January, implying seemingly a rather slow start for the year. Manufacturing, however, expanded by a more impressive 3.9% y-o-y growth, which was on a par with 4Q19 y-o-y growth (the same 3.9%). Mining, power generation and supply of...

Russia Economics Conference Call - Growth to strengthen amid a more proactive economic policy of the new government
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2020

Our Russia Economic conference call replay,​ Growth to strengthen amid a more proactive economic policy of the new government, featuring Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin. Evgeny Gavrilenko and Alexander Kudrin are recognized among the top analysts of Russia's macroeconomic trends. In our ...

CBR: Government purchase of Sberbank to effectively amend the fiscal rule, affect markets
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Feb 2020

Yesterday Russian authorities announced that the controlling stake in Sberbank, the nation’s largest commercial bank, currently held by the Central Bank of Russia, would be sold to the Finance Ministry. The deal will be financed by the National Wealth Fund (NWF). The deal is structured in such a ...

Russian GDP: Growth of around 2% expected in 2020
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2020

Russia's GDP was up 1.3% in 2019, according to Rosstat, well below the 2.5% growth in 2018. Despite the fact that economic growth accelerated in 2H19 the annual growth figure came as no surprise given that GDP was reportedly up only by 0.9% y-o-y in 1H19. The 2017 and 2018 GDP growth numbers w...

CBR Monetary Policy: Potential impact of the coronavirus
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020 · 1 response

This Friday, February 7, the Central Bank of Russia will hold its Board of Directors meeting on monetary policy. This meeting has the so-called “anchor” status and will be followed by a press conference with Chairperson Ms. Nabiullina. The continuing disinflation favors another rate cut. However,...

Russian industry: Looking beyond the headline numbers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jan 2020

Rosstat reported recently that industrial output in Russia increased 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% y-o-y in December, therefore pointing to deceleration given that industry expanded by 2.9% in 2018. The growth in the mining segment of Russian industry decelerated in 2019 but remained quite strong – it gr...

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