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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 May 2023

After some appreciation at the beginning of May, the ruble returned to the R/$80 area. The uncertainty remains high, and the recent package of sanctions confirmed that pressure on Russia will continue to increase. Many investors believe new restrictions on the financial sector and the “unfriendly...

Moderate y-o-y GDP contraction in 1Q23 prompts decent economic growth this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 May 2023

Rosstat reported that GDP was down by a mere 1.9% y-o-y in 1Q23 which is not bad a result following the 4.5%, 3.5%, 2.7% y-o-y contraction in 2Q22, 3Q22, and 4Q22 and the high base in 1Q22. So far, Rosstat didn’t provide any breakdown of the GDP – just this flash-estimate, which is the usual prac...

Russian macro: Russian economy set to rebound in 2Q23
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 May 2023

At the very end of April, we published a report on the trends in Russian industry (“Manufacturing to Gain Importance as a Driving Force”) and suggested that the country’s industrial sector would deliver quite strong growth in 2023 as a whole, especially in manufacturing. Looking at a broader rang...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 May 2023

A number of interesting events affected the FX market in recent weeks. Note that the ruble significantly weakened in April and moved from R/$77 to about R/$82, which was partially explained by increased federal budget expenditures. In April alone, they accounted for over R3.1 trln. In January, th...

Russia political, pandemic update: Fasten seatbelts securely…
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 May 2023

Public sentiment didn’t change much in April as the Russian authorities continued to enjoy strong popular support. Even though the economic statistics for April were not yet published as of these polls, it seems that the economy continued to adapt gradually to the new reality, and the majority of...

Russian macro: manufacturing to gain importance as a driving force
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2023

Russian industrial output grew by 1.2% y-o-y in March and contracted by a mere 0.9% y-o-y in 1Q23 versus a 3.0% y-o-y contraction in 4Q22. Seasonally adjusted industrial output grew in March by 1.3% m-o-m. In the previous months, industrial growth remained negative due to the base effect caused b...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023 · 1 response

After the rapid depreciation at the beginning of April, the ruble stabilized in the R/$81 to R/$82 range. As some correction of oil prices occurred, we don’t think there are many reasons to expect the ruble to strengthen significantly soon. In addition, in May, Minfin may start purchasing FX on t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...

Russian macro: in search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2023

After a yearly break, the Central Bank of Russia published monthly foreign trade statistics, albeit not as detailed as previously. After February 2022, the CBR stopped publishing monthly data on exports and imports, though recently it provided the aggregate foreign trade data without any breakdow...

The federal budget surplus narrows in 3M23 as revenues exceed expenditures in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2023

The Finance Ministry reported that in 3M23, the federal budget deficit narrowed compared to 2M22 and accounted for R2.4trln (versus R2.6trln a month ago). It means the budget was in surplus of about R200bn in March alone. Tax collection improved last month as the government collected R688bn of th...

Russia political, pandemic update: The geopolitical performance drags on; actors repeat themselves
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2023

It looks as though the consequences of the current standoff between Russia and the West (including Ukraine) will be a legacy that current leaders on both sides will leave to new generations of politicians. It appears that policymakers of all sorts are enjoying the situation they designed and deve...

Russian macro: moderate growth in 2023 driven by domestic demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 03 Apr 2023

Assuming no new major external shocks in 2023, the economy may grow by over 1% this year. The current account will shrink while still remaining in surplus, and the budget balance will remain in deficit. Inflation may decelerate to below 5% this year, which will enable the Central Bank to cut the...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...

Decent economic performance in February, inflation low in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was down y-o-y by 2.2% in 2M22 and 1.8% in February. The industry was down by 2.0% and 1.7% for the same periods (also y-o-y). Note that February 2023 had fewer working days than February 2022. Hence, seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) indu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2023

Brent/Urals spread recently narrowed to about $25/bbl (from $32-34/bbl seen in December). Although, it didn’t support the ruble as Brent fell below the $75/bbl benchmark amid renewed concerns about a global slowdown. The current thinking is that the economic problems may turn more acute amid rece...

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