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Russian Macro: Consumer Lending Unlikely to Drive Growth in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Mar 2023

As Russia’s inflation peaked last year amid a sharp devaluation of the ruble, financial markets were shaken but not yet “stirred”. A combination of administrative measures, such as some form of capital controls combined with the key rate hike, helped the country’s financial markets to survive wit...

Inflation falls below 11% in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation in February was at 0.46%, and it fell to 10.99% y-o-y. At the same time, Rosstat announced that in seven days ending on March 6, inflation was 0.0%, implying that YTD inflation remained the same, namely at 1.3%. As inflation was close to zero in the past thre...

Current account surplus narrows in February but still remains strong enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

The CBR reported that the current narrowed to $5.8bn last month, while in January it was at $7.1bn. Therefore, in 2M23, it reached $12.9bn and was well below $37.7 bn in 2M22. The balance of goods and services was at $15.3 bn, implying that the income balance, i.e., the difference between the cur...

Russia’s Political/Pandemic Update: Fahrenheit 451 and a 360-Degree Turn
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2023

As the coronavirus pandemic is coming to an end, the geopolitical pandemic keeps spreading and contaminating more and more brains. Even though Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms (START), February was a routine month for Russian politics a...

Federal budget deficit narrowed in February as spending moderated tax collection improved
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

Minfin reported that the federal budget deficit in February decreased to R821 bn (versus R1760 bn in January) as non-oil-and-gas tax collection improved and reached R1286 bn (versus 931 bn in January). The oil-and-gas tax flow was poor in both months as the price for Russian oil remained below $5...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

Russian financial markets remain nervous. As the West imposed a next-in-turn package of sanctions last week and announced an intention to impose a "secondary sanctions" mechanism (i.e., tightening enforcement of the already imposed sanctions) market sentiment was negatively impacted. Markets also...

A decent start in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors shrank by 2.5% y-o-y in January which was better than in 4Q22 when it contracted by 3.1% y-o-y. The performance of various sectors was quite uneven in January, but less so than in 2022. Industrial output and transportation services contra...

Industrial output was down y-o-y in January, but less so than in 4Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that in January, industrial output contracted by 2.4% y-o-y as the mining segment fell by 4.3% and the manufacturing by 3.0% (also y-o-y). According to Rosstat's estimates, seasonally adjusted industrial output in January decreased by 0.6% m-o-m (though, one can raise questions a...

Russian macro: decent economic performance in 2022 to increase chances for growth in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that nominal Russian GDP reached R151.5 trln in 2022 (over $2.2 trln). It contracted by 2.1% in real terms but gained significantly in dollar terms as, on one hand, high inflation pushed up the nominal GDP figure by nearly 12%, and, on the other hand, the ruble appreciated agains...

GDP down by a mere 2.1% in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that Russian nominal GDP reached R151.5 trln in 2022 (over $2.2 bn). In real terms it contracted by 2.1% while in dollar terms it grew significantly as high inflation inflated the nominal GDP number, and the ruble appreciated against the dollar in average annual terms. It is not ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2023

The Russian financial markets remain in the area of turbulence. On the eve of the first anniversary of the start of a special military operation in Ukraine, media are reporting about the forthcoming new sanctions package, which will be introduced by the EU and potentially US next week. Besides, i...

The Central bank keeps its key rate unchanged
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2023

The Central bank announced that the BoD decided to keep the key rate at 7.5%, having quoted that the economic situation currently looks better, and pro-inflationary risks remain relatively high. The CBR estimated that the Russian GDP was down by 2.5% in 2022, which encouraged the regulator to upg...

December statistics leaves mixed impression, inflation remains elevated in the early 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was down in 2022 by a mere 1.3%, while in December alone, it was down by 4.3% y-o-y. The performance in various sectors was quite uneven as construction grew by 5.2% and 6.9% in 2022 and December (y-o-y in the latter case). Agricultural o...

The Federal budget deficit explosively widens in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget deficit reached R1.760 trln in January, i.e., over half of the annual target, as revenues and expenditures accounted for R1.356 trln (5.2% of the 2023 plan) and R3.117 trln (6.1% of the target). Usually, January budgetary statistics are not...

Russia political/pandemic update: back to 1984
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2023

Unsurprisingly, the conflict between Russia and NATO/West has continued to escalate, albeit still verbally, so far. It has been almost a year since the events in Ukraine unfolded, and in some sense, it has become routine for many outside observers, i.e., people not affected directly or affected l...

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