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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian macro: credit market getting back to normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Even though banks were among the first targets of the Western sanctions that bombarded the Russian economy last year, the country’s banking sector reported profits in 2022 as a whole, as 2H22 profits overshadowed 1H22 losses. As geopolitical changes forced the domestic economic environment to cha...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2023

Generous budgetary spending helped to increase banks’ net liquidity position with CBR, which surpassed R3 trln - for the first time since September 2022. Excessive liquidity caused inflation to accelerate and pushed money market rates well below CBR key rate. This situation is likely to remain in...

Industrial output marginally contracts in 2022 setting up a basis for moderate growth this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial output contracted in 2022 by 0.6%. In December alone, it fell by 4.3% y-o-y, while it grew by 0.1% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. Mining was up by 0.8%, and manufacturing contracted in 2022 (1.3%). The performance was uneven across sectors as the Russian econ...

OFZ: Minfin may soon resume the placement of floaters
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jan 2023

By the end of January, the Russian Ministry of Finance managed to raise about R200 bln on the OFZ market, which looks like a very modest result compared to 2022 (when the total amount of issuance reached R3.3 trln). So far, the government is sticking with cautious tactics, placing mostly fixed-ra...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2023

The main event on the FX market at the beginning of the year was the decision of the Finance Ministry to start selling CNY from the National Wealth Fund, given that the budget revenues from the energy sector are likely to be lower than planned. The latter pushed the ruble up, and the exchange rat...

Russian macro: Contrary to a tradition, the 2023 budget is unlikely to be amended if the Brent/Urals spread remains wide
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2023

At the very end of December, the Finance Ministry announced that federal budget expenditures exceeded R31.1 trln rubles in 2022, which meant that, after a series of amendments, actual spending last year exceeded the initially targeted amount by nearly one-third. It was already a tradition that th...

Current account narrows in 4Q22 but still remains very strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2023

According to the CBR preliminary estimate, Russia’s current account reached $227.4bn in 2022. In 4Q22, it narrowed to $31.4bn from $48.0bn in 3Q22 and a record high of $78.5bn in 2Q22. The trade surplus reached $282.3bn in 2022 and also narrowed in 4Q22 (to $45.9bn, i.e., roughly one-half of its ...

Inflation steadily moderates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023

Rosstat reported that inflation in December reached 0.78% m-o-m, which is quite a low level given that the authorities moved the indexation of regulated tariffs from the summer months to December. Fruit and vegetable prices were the main drivers of the CPI in December. Inflation in 2022 as a whol...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023 · 1 response

As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a c...

The 2021 GDP statistics revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

At the very end of 2022 Rosstat announced it had revised the country's national accounts for 2021. So far, only the annual figures have been re-appraised. As quarterly data remain unchanged, they do not match yet annual statistics (Rosstat plans to revise quarterly national accounts in April). Ac...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2022

The FX market was volatile in December. The ruble dropped from R/$61 in the early month to R/$71-72 in recent days. On the one hand, some local investors decided to increase their FX exposure in anticipation of a contraction of the current account surplus. The latter is expected to result from th...

Economic performance in November exceeded expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2022

Amid strong monthly economic growth in 4Q21, which caused a high base effect, the country's economic performance looked quite good as most indicators grew above m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms, which resulted either in stronger y-o-y growth numbers or less significant contraction. According to...

Russian macro: another year of shocks and uncertainty ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 21 Dec 2022

This year has been uneasy for the Russian economy, just like many other years in the past decade. The forthcoming years will be even more challenging as politics continue to dominate the economy – both in Russia and worldwide. The Russian economy will continue to undergo dramatic changes across t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

The price cap on Russian oil, which the Western countries imposed recently (currently set at $60), caused only minor disruption for the market (if any) as Urals trades currently below this level. Markets capped the Urals price already long ago as the discount between Brent and Urals widened soon ...

The revised statistics suggested seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP grew Q-o-Q
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2022

According to Rosstat’s revised numbers, the Russian GDP contracted in 3Q22 not by 4.0% as an earlier flash estimate showed, but by 3.7%. Rosstat also showed that the seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP was up versus the previous quarter (around 0.4%). It means that technically, Russia was not yet in rec...

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