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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation slows further in June, NBK rate cut is on the agenda
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation slowed in June to 0.5% m-o-m and 14.6% y-o-y. Food inflation fell to 15.8% y-o-y. Inflation is decelerating faster than expected, which is a good sign as it opens up an opportunity for the National Bank of Kazakhstan to cut its base rate. ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Jun 2023

Jun 16 Bureau of National Statistics: Industrial production in Kazakhstan in Jan-May grew by 2.4% y-o-y Ministry of Agriculture: Kazakhstan allocated over $220 mln from the State budget for the creation of 65 dairy farms in 2023 Qazaqgaz: The company and Gazprom signed an agreement on the transpo...

Kazakhstan Macro: Public finances remain in good shape
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Despite recent budgetary amendments, Kazakhstan’s fiscal situation looks stable as the country has enough reserves in the National Fund and runs the 2023 budget with an easily manageable deficit. The authorities have also a theoretical option to increase domestic borrowing in the case of unexpect...

Kazakhstan macro: mixed 5M23 results amid puzzling statistics
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2023

Given that in recent years, the country’s economy has faced several shocks including the pandemic, protests in early 2022, and Russia’s special military operation, economic trends in Kazakhstan have turned very uneven, being influenced by various base effects. One can also add disputes with Russi...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jun 2023

Jun 2 Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure: Kazakhstan plans to start developing new copper deposits in 2027 and to double copper production by 2030 President: Mr. Tokayev urged the EU to support the idea of long-term supplies of Kazakh oil via CPC to Europe President: Mr. Tokayev said Kazakhs...

Economic performance in May: mixed results
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Jun 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an aggregate measure of the country’s economic activity) grew by 4.5% in 5M23 y-o-y, which looks decent. However, in 4M23 and 1Q23, y-o-y growth rates were higher – 5.5% and 5.1%. Amid significant base e...

Budgetary performance seemingly improved in May
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM and Finance Minister, Mr. Erulan Zhamaubaev, reported at a government meeting today that the country’s state budget (i.e., the republican and local budgets combined) was in decent shape as in 5M23 it accumulated “over KZT8.0 trln of revenues” which appeared about 3% over th...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Jun 2023

May 22 KMG: The company may increase dividends for 2022 by 50%, up to $669.2 mln KTZ: The company and one of the world's largest container port terminal operators PSA International (Singapore), launched a joint venture. Both companies will cooperate in the development of the Trans-Caspian route M...

Kazakhstan macro: government amends 2023 budget but not as much as in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 30 May 2023

In April, the Kazakh government amended both local and republican budget expenditures as it raised the revenue outlook for this year. The country’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for 4M23, which looked decent even though the tax collection of the republican bud...

Budget deficit widens in April amid amendments and weak tax revenue flow
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 May 2023

In 4M23, the deficit of the republican budget reached KZT1.355 trln amid accelerated growth of expenditures. In 1Q23, this deficit accounted for KZT0.830 trln. Once again, the government amended the 2023 republican budget and increased its spending from KZT20.6 trln to KZT21.6 trln. This amount d...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary (Kazakhstan+)
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 May 2023

May 5 Azerbaijan: Gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Italy via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) increased in 1Q23 by 6.3% y-o-y to 2.4 bcm May 8 Uzbekistan: Early presidential elections are scheduled for June 9. May 10 Georgia: The country imported 41K tons of wheat in 1Q23 (+22.3% y-o-y) Georgia: ...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to surprise on the upside in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 17 May 2023

The economic situation in Kazakhstan remained stable in April, and the economy continued to expand steadily as the short-term indicator (an aggregate measure of activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) increased by 5.5% y-o-y in 4M23. In 1Q23 it was u...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 May 2023

Apr 21 KTZ: The company, the Russian Railways Logistics, and the Transport and Logistics Center of Turkmenistan signed a memorandum on the establishment of a JV for the development of the North-South corridor Samruk-Energo: The shortage of electric power in Kazakhstan by 2029 will reach 3 GW Apr ...

Kazakhstan macro: The transformation of foreign trade flows will gradually reshape the economy
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The Kazakh economy continued to expand in 1Q23 as the short-term indicator grew 1Q23 by 5.1% y-o-y. Most domestically oriented manufacturing segments expanded rapidly in 1Q23, while export-oriented ones struggled to grow fast. Domestic demand continued to recover steadily as retail sales and inve...

Kazakhstan's sovereign debt market: positive vibes
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Apr 2023

In 1Q23, the Ministry of Finance fulfilled 25% of its annual plan for local bond issuance. We do not rule out that the National Bank may begin a rate-cut cycle amid decelerating inflation, which may fuel demand for long-term bonds in KZT. An essential feature of the borrowing program this year is...

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