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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Green Shoots Multiplying
CHILE · Report · 20 Feb 2015

Executive Summary There are several signals now that the economy is on a recovery path. But we must be cautious. A month ago there was a single variable that gave us some hope: imports of capital goods. In December we were hopeful because this variable expanded significantly. But January’s fig...

Waiting for the Sun
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Time and again, economists have revised down expected growth for 2015, this time, from 2.7% in December to 2.6% in January (Central Bank's Survey of Economists). The Imacec (monthly index of economic activity) expanded a meager 1.3% in the 12 months to November, while the yoy...

Slow Motion
CHILE · Forecast · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary In our base case scenario, the economy will grow approximately 1.7% in 2014 For 2015, uncertainty is huge and tilted to the negative side. Lately, the international scenario has become increasingly volatile, and that is dangerous for a small, open, flexible-exchange rate econ...

In the Waiting Room
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2014

Executive Summary All signs point in the same depressing direction – or, one might argue, in no direction at all. Business confidence is stagnant, at historically low levels. The manufacturing sector is suffering from bradycardia (a condition of slow heartbeat). For the second month in a row, ...

Internal Contradictions
CHILE · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryTwo major international summits that took place in November, in China and Australia, were all about Ukraine and Russia and met with no apparent success. Despite intense consultations, President Putin was unable to conduct a fruitful dialogue with his counterparts from Europe, and...

Where Are the Green Shoots?
CHILE · Report · 25 Nov 2014

Executive Summary Economists have systematically revised downward their expectations for Chilean GDP growth for both 2014 and 2015. Though fundamentals point to a near-term recovery, there are no signs of this yet. The devaluation of the peso and the fall in the price of oil should help the in...

Bad Mood
CHILE · Report · 22 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Most analysts expect the third quarter to be the bottom of the cycle, and the economy to start slowly recovering by year-end. But pessimism is everywhere. The Monthly Index of Business Confidence (IMCE) is at a historical minimum. Consumers do not seem to be very optimistic, ...

2015 Budget
CHILE · Report · 02 Oct 2014

On October 1, the government presented to Congress its proposal for the 2015 budget. The budget must be approved by Congress before the end of November. The government claims that the budget is aggressively countercyclical. Fiscal spending in Chile depends on “structural” rather than current f...

It's Been a Cold, Cold Winter
CHILE · Report · 16 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Pessimism in Chile is rising, with economists and business leaders increasingly blaming the government for the economic slowdown. Most analysts have lowered their growth estimates, as have the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. We, however, are far from agreeing w...

September Inflation Report
CHILE · Report · 08 Sep 2014

On September 4, the Central Bank released its quarterly Inflation Report. The expected growth rate for 2014 was revised lower, roughly by the amount markets expected. The forecast for 2015 was also in line with expectations. Inflation rates for both December 2014 and 2015 were revised higher and ...

Red Blood Cells Needed
CHILE · Report · 22 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The economy is anemic, and the bottom is definitely deeper than previously thought. Retailers have been left with excess stocks. Though construction permits are very dynamic, actual activity in the construction sector, and home sales, is less robust. Imports of capital goods ...

Clearer Waters Rising
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2014

Executive Summary It is fair to say that the winds are starting to blow in the direction of a recovery in coming quarters. The wide agreement around the main points of the tax reform is good news. But, at the same time, it is hard to agree with some economists that claim that they are beginnin...

Tax Reform, Take Two
CHILE · Report · 18 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Several months of opposition and discussion to President Bachelet’s proposed tax reform has resulted in a compromise deal between government and opposition. The main issue had to do with the taxation of income from capital. Chile today has a system of full integration betw...

Few Sweet Words
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2014

​Executive Summary It’s still chilly in Chile. Growth is ever more meager, with no sign of a quick recovery. To the fall in investment we now can add a slowdown in consumption. Though investment has apparently hit bottom, there are clear signs that consumption is still falling. Adverse exter...

A Hole in the Pocket
CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2014

Executive Summary It continues to be chilly in Chile. Growth is increasingly meager and there are no signs of a prompt recovery. To the fall in investment we now can add a deceleration of consumption. Apparently investment has hit bottom, but there are clear signs that consumption is still dec...

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