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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Green Shoots at Last?
CHILE · Report · 28 Sep 2017

Given the tone of September’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, we think it’s extremely unlikely that the Bank will cut rates further. Still, the IPOM introduced a downward bias for the short-term inflation forecast. A further fall in inflation could be a game changer, but the closer we get to...

Chile’s top economic team walks away
CHILE · Report · 04 Sep 2017

Chile’s entire economic team resigned last week, and the Santiago stock market was barely affected. Yet the news was a shock to the country’s political system. Indeed, the departure of Finance Minister Rodrigo Valdes, Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Micco, and Economy Minister Luis Felipe Césp...

No Good News, But Glimmers of Hope
CHILE · Report · 29 Aug 2017 · 1 response

The latest national accounts were unequivocal about the sluggishness of the economy during H1; we cannot find a single sign of recovery.GDP expanded just 0.5% y/y during the first semester, making it the worst half since H2 2009. Yet there are a few signs of improved expectations. Strong domes...

On Volatility and Predictability
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2017

Retail sales in May looked relatively strong, but monthly data should be taken with a grain of salt, as it has become increasingly volatile. Retail sales still may be favored by a recovery in the stock of durable goods, especially in cars. Manufacturing in May had a better performance than in pre...

Ready to grow
CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2017

The Central Bank kept the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) at 2.5% at its June Monetary Policy Meeting. Likewise, the communiqué barely changed from May. The June communique corroborated the minutes of May’s meeting and the latest Inflation Report that 2.5% is a floor for the TPM. Only significant addi...

Politics Overshadows Ho-Hum Economic Performance
CHILE · Report · 31 May 2017

The Central Bank has for the second month in a row cut its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, to 2.5%. Surprisingly, the board’s communiqué was 100% neutral. Clearly the current cycle of MPR reductions has ended, and a long pause lies ahead. GDP in Q1 recorded its lowest y/y growth rate since ...

Reasons for Hope
CHILE · Presentation · 16 May 2017

The long-expected recovery has not yet arrived. The government’s reform agenda has impacted confidence, and the positive investment cycle ended with the decline in the price of copper. However, the economy seems to be coming out a double dip, with agriculture and services the champions. Given tha...

Hopes for Deliverance
CHILE · Report · 20 Apr 2017

The latest economic activity data are discouraging, with growth at only about 1% in February, and manufacturing production and real retail output negative, y/y. Though lending to the private sector rebounded in March, banks in Q1 saw a deterioration in the conditions for lending supply and demand...

A Sleepy Summer
CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2017

The economy was off to a better-than-expected start in 2017. In the 12 months to January, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (Imacec) expanded 1.7%. Yet activity is still weak. Correcting for the number of business days, the Imacec in January grew by a modest 1.5% y/y. Imacec in February will...

The country is on fire, but not the economy
CHILE · Report · 14 Feb 2017

Chile is being pummeled by natural disasters. This time, more than one million acres of forest in the center and south of Chile have gone up in flames. Although the initial lag in the government's response may indicate some slow decision-making, the true culprit is a Chilean state woefully unprep...

No Bounce Back
CHILE · Report · 16 Jan 2017

In 2016, total exports were the lowest since 2009, but there was a rebound towards the end of the year. This rebound was widespread. The value of imports of capital goods continued the upward trend, which is good signal on investment. That’s the good news. In November, the Monthly Index of Eco...

TPP Pullout Wouldn’t Hurt, But FTA Revision Would Be a Catastrophe
CHILE · Report · 21 Dec 2016

Economic activity continues to be quite depressed. The mining sector is dragging and, beyond seasonal fluctuations, the economy for the first 10 months of the year was flat. While October retail sales figures surprised slightly on the upside, performance remained anemic. But manufacturing produc...

Economy Still Slogging through Winter
CHILE · Report · 16 Nov 2016

Donald Trump's presidential victory will make an impact around the world, including in Chile. Some effects are already being felt: copper prices rose, evidently on expectations of a U.S. construction boom. Other effects are subtler. Trump's influence may extend to politics, as Chile historically ...

President Bachelet appointed Mario Marcel as President of the Central Bank
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2016

As expected, President Bachelet appointed the Board Member Mario Marcel as President of the Central Bank. This will become effective in December, when Rodrigo Vergara leaves his current position.

​The consequences of the municipal elections in Chile.
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2016

Municipal elections were held across Chile on Sunday, and the results were a surprise to Chile’s political class – even the winners. For the most part, it was a good day for the opposition, which won more votes, more mayors and more council members nationwide. Chile Vamos won 38.4% of the popular...

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