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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Stability is the target
CHINA · Forecast · 05 May 2020

GDP fell -6.8% y/y after the Chinese economy was hit hard by the coronavirus in Q1. Since the virus in China has been almost contained since March, economic activities have been gradually rebounding, and there have been clear signs of recovery. Industrial output was down -1.1% y/y, up 12.4 pps fr...

Focusing on “six stabilities,” while struggling to grow
CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The Chinese economy was hit hard by the coronavirus in Q1, and GDP fell -6.8% y/y. Because the virus is almost contained in China, economic activities have since March been gradually picking up, and there were clear signs of recovery. Industrial output was down -1.1% y/y, up 12.4 pps from January...

Economy will be relatively stable amid global turmoil
CHINA · Report · 24 Mar 2020

The coronavirus outbreak in China has had major short-term negative effects on production activities. However, as of March 18th, within China it is largely contained, with zero new cases. The total number of global infection cases outside China has now surpassed the total number of cases in China...

Coronavirus effects may soon be contained in China
CHINA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The coronavirus outbreak that began in late January was one of the most severe exogenous shocks in China’s recent history, especially since it overlapped with the Chinese New Year holiday, which involves the largest population migration in human history. As of February 26th, some 80,428 cases had...

With trade uncertainty eased, 6% growth target can be achieved
CHINA · Forecast · 30 Jan 2020

The United States and China on January 16th struck a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over the future of U.S.-China trade relations. Exports rose 5% y/y in 2019, down 2.8 pps from 2018, while imports rose 1.2% y/y, down 11.6 pps. GDP rose 6.1% y/y last year, down 0.5 pps fro...

Trade war-driven uncertainty eases
CHINA · Report · 27 Jan 2020

The United States and China in mid-January reached a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over future U.S.-China trade relations. The agreement will have Beijing purchase an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the next two years. In exchange, Washington agreed t...

2020 growth target likely to be about 6%
CHINA · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held by top leaders December 10th-12th emphasized “stabilities.” We believe that “around 6%” is the likeliest 2020 growth target. Infrastructure investment was mentioned, suggesting that infrastructure spending will be used to support the economy...

PPI deflation may be worrisome
CHINA · Report · 26 Nov 2019

Major economic indicators were still mostly falling in October. Industrial output was up 4.7% y/y, comparable to July and August. Investment was up 3.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q3. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y, and the real growth rate of this indicator was 4.9% y/y, d...

More opening measures amid trade war
CHINA · Report · 11 Nov 2019

The economy continues to weaken. GDP was up 6% y/y in Q3, down 0.2 pps from Q2, and down 0.5 pps from Q3 2018. Investment was up 4.7% y/y, down 0.8 pps from Q2. Imports were down -2.9% y/y in Q3, down 5.2 pps from Q2, and down 21.9 pps from Q3 2018. Exports were up 3.9% y/y, down 1.8 pps and ...

New deregulation measures expected to boost cross-border trade and investment
CHINA · Report · 31 Oct 2019

The economy is showing various signs of weakening. In Q3, GDP grew at a rate of 6% y/y, down 0.2 pps from Q2, and down 0.5 pps from Q3 2018. Industrial output expanded 5% y/y, down 1 pp from Q3 2018. Investment grew 4.7% y/y, down 0.8 pps from Q2. Retail sales of social consumption goods grew ...

Financial market opens further
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2019

Growth is slowing further. In August, industrial output was up 4.4% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, while investment rose 4.2% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q2. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.5% y/y in August, down 1.1 pps from Q2. The indicator’s real growth rate was 5.6% y/y, down ...

Baselessly labeled a “Currency Manipulator”
CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2019

Growth slowed in July. Industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, down 0.4 pps from both April and May, falling to a record low rate. The main causes were low investment and consumption, sentiment mostly driven by “trade war.” Investment was up 5.1% y/y, down 0.4 pps from Q2, and down 2.4 pps from Q4 201...

Xi promises more openness
CHINA · Report · 24 Jul 2019

GDP rose 6.2% y/y in Q2, down 0.2 pps from Q1. Industrial output rose 5.6% y/y, down 0.9 pps, but notably, was up 6.3% y/y in June, obviously higher than in April and May. We judge the unusually high June growth to be a seasonal phenomenon, and unsustainable. Fixed asset investment was up 5.5%...

London-Shanghai stock connect latest openness step
CHINA · Report · 24 Jun 2019

Growth is experiencing downward pressure. Industrial output rose just 5% y/y in May, down 0.4 pps from April, a new low rate. Investment was up 4.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from April. The fall in investment growth is mainly driven by falling state investment, which in turn was depressed by fiscal defi...

Trade war hurting everyone
CHINA · Report · 23 May 2019

Almost all major economic indicators are falling. Industrial output was up 5.4% y/y, back to its low January-February level, after its March rise. Fixed asset investment was up 5.7% y/y in April, down 0.6 pps from Q1. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y in nominal terms, ...

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