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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Trade war truce resolves growth uncertainties
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2018

Growth data was mixed in April. The value added for industrial firms was up 7% y/y, up 0.2 pps from Q1 and up 0.8 pps from Q4 2017. Fixed asset investment was up 6.1% y/y, down 1.4 pps from Q1, although still higher than in Q3 2017. Specifically, private investment was up 7.5% y/y, down 1.4 pps f...

U.S.-China trade war likely to be short-lived
CHINA · Forecast · 08 May 2018

Chinese economic growth was stable in Q1, with GDP up 6.8% y/y, flat on Q4. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y, a 0.6 pps rise from Q4. Investment was up 7.5% y/y, up 1.7 pps from the lowest growth rate of 2017. But price-adjusted investment growth was up only 1.2% y/y, though private investment r...

Exit from the integrated world may be costly
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2018

Chinese economic growth was stable in Q1. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, flat on Q4. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y, and up 0.6 pps from Q4. Investment rose 7.5% y/y in Q1, up 1.7 pps from the lowest growth rate of 2017 (seen in Q3). However, the price-adjusted investment growth rate rose only 1.2%...

Growth targeted at about 6.5%
CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced during a March 5th address to the People’s Congress of Beijing that China’s growth target for 2018 would be about 6.5%, the same as in 2017, when growth reached 6.9%. The yuan will be “basically stable” at a reasonable level, Li also predicted. More local gover...

External accounts are balancing
CHINA · Report · 23 Feb 2018

The ex-factory price index of industrial products was up 4.3% y/y in January, down 1.6 pps from Q4 2017. PPI was up 5.2% y/y, down 1.9 pps. Given tightening monetary policy, we expect producer prices will continue their downward trend in 2018. Due to the Spring Festival – the Chinese New Year -- ...

Robust and stable
CHINA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2018

Stability was the watchword for 2017, with growth expanding by a comfortable 6.9% for the year, 0.2 pps more than in 2016. Growth was also consistent all year, rising 6.9% y/y in Q1 and Q2, and 6.8% y/y in Q3 and Q4. Value added for primary industry rose 3.9% in 2017, up 0.2 pps from 2016; manufa...

Pessimism notwithstanding, growth picks up
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2018

Growth was robust and stable throughout 2017, even as fixed asset investment and consumption kept weakening. Exports rose, after two years of decline. Producer prices were elevated, while CPI showed little volatility. Monetary policy returned to moderately neutral levels, from its previous tight ...

Narrowing the external imbalance
CHINA · Report · 26 Dec 2017

Growth remained stable in November, with industrial output up 6.1% y/y. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture was up 6.3% y/y, up 0.5 pps from October, and up 2.4 pps from its August nadir. However, the current investment growth rate is still lower than investment goods’ price growth rate,...

Opening Finance – the Right Way
CHINA · Report · 24 Nov 2017

Growth was relatively stable in October. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, almost the same as in previous months. Yet key growth drivers weakened. Fixed asset investment was up 5.8% y/y, slightly above the nadir, but lower than the investment price level. So real investment growth is still negat...

Disregard the Downgrade
CHINA · Report · 10 Nov 2017

Q3 growth was stable, though slightly lower. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, down 0.1 pps from Q2, while industrial output was up 6.3% y/y, down 0.5 pps. But industrial output in real terms might be worse than official statistics show. Fixed asset investment has been weakening, and was up 5.8% y/y in Q3. Af...

19th Congress Sends Positive Signals
CHINA · Report · 30 Oct 2017

Growth in Q3 was stable, though slightly lower. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, down 0.1 pps from Q2. Industrial output rose 6.3% y/y, down 0.5 pps from Q2, but still higher than in Q3 2016. However, industrial output in real terms might be worse than official statistics indicate. Since the beginning of ...

Ratings Downgrade is a Misleading Overreaction
CHINA · Report · 27 Sep 2017

Growth weakened in August. Industrial output was up 6% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, and down 0.9 pps from Q2, which represented its lowest level of the year. Fixed asset investment, up 4.9%, was likewise at its lowest level of the year, down 3.4 pps from Q2. But the ex-factory price index of ...

Managing Financial Outflows with Cautions
CHINA · Report · 28 Aug 2017

Growth remained generally stable in July. Industrial output was up 6.4% y/y, similar to previous months. But fixed asset investment, the key growth driver, climbed only 6.8% y/y in real terms, its lowest rate this year, and was down 1.5 pps from Q2. Its adjusted growth rate is less than 5%, which...

Weak Investment May Pressure Growth
CHINA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2017

GDP growth continues flat, its 6.9% y/y rise in H1 up only 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. Industrial output was up 6.9% y/y, climbing by 0.8 pps, and fixed asset investment was up 8.6%. But in real terms, fixed asset investment growth was just 3.8% y/y, down 5 pps from last year. We expect H2 growth to ex...

Financial Risk Likely to Be Contained
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2017

GDP rose 6.9% y/y in H1, up only 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. Industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, up 0.8 pps, and fixed asset investment rose 8.6%. But fixed asset investment’s real growth rate was just 3.8% y/y, down 5 pps from last year. Negatively affected by weak investment growth, we expect H2 growth ...

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