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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth is Under Pressure
CHINA · Report · 26 Jun 2017

Growth, though stable, is facing downward pressure. Value added for major industrial firms was up 6.5% y/y in May – flat on April, and slightly below that of Q1, but still higher than all quarters of 2016. But a key driver for growth in China, fixed asset investment, was up 7.9% y/y, down 1.3 pps...

Xi Advances Globalization Plan
CHINA · Report · 24 May 2017

Growth was stable April. Real estate investment accelerated, but fixed asset investment growth remained weak, and auto production and sales fell. Money supply grew more slowly, adding constraints on future economic growth. The active real estate market is one key positive factor for economic grow...

Growth Picks Up For Now
CHINA · Forecast · 11 May 2017

President Jinping Xi held a top-level meeting on April 25th, where he emphasized the importance of avoiding systemic financial risk. The market interpreted this meeting as a plan to tighten liquidity. The benchmark seven-day repo rate instantly hit a two-year high, of 3.18%. We expect the financi...

New Urbanization Strategy to Contain Housing Bubble
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2017

GDP was up 6.9% y/y in Q1, its fastest growth since last year, and up 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. But, given the end of producer price appreciation, and real estate market re-tightening, we expect this recovery to be temporary. Industrial output rose 6.8% y/y, up 0.7 pps from Q4. March saw a particu...

Seeking Growth of About 6.5%
CHINA · Report · 23 Mar 2017

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced in a March 5th address to Congress that China was aiming for growth of about 6.5% for 2017, with CPI of about 3%. He also said the government would continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, and maintain a prudent and neutral monetary policy, with the M2 ...

Indicators Signal Good Prospects
CHINA · Report · 27 Feb 2017

Due to Chinese New Year, many statistics are still not available, making our analytical task more difficult. But one notable policy change is that monetary policy reversed its 2016 loosening trend, and shifted into tightening. We also expect this to be the trend for 2017. M1 rose 14.5% y/y, conti...

Stable 2017 Expected, Despite Global Uncertainties
CHINA · Forecast · 12 Feb 2017

Given China’s strong fiscal condition, we expect the country to enjoy stable growth in 2017, global uncertainties notwithstanding. GDP rose 6.7% y/y in 2016, down 0.2 pps from 2015, and admittedly the lowest recent yearly rise. Fixed asset investment was up 8.1%, down 1.9 pps from 2015. After the...

Trade Uncertainties Ahead
CHINA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

The economy in 2016 displayed completely new characteristics. On the one hand, real estate and automobile consumption recovered strongly, and M1 grew rapidly. Producer prices rebounded, to positive territory. On the other hand, quarterly GDP growth rates were almost flat all year. It seems that ...

Stability and Progress Targeted for 2017
CHINA · Report · 26 Dec 2016

The economic working meeting of the Communist Party Central Committee, chaired by President Xi Jinping, has set next year’s main economic goal: stability and progress. The meeting, which ended on December 16th, was the most important political-economic session of year-end. We view progress not in...

Trump Introduces Uncertainties
CHINA · Report · 24 Nov 2016

Economic growth was relatively stable in October. Fixed asset investment was up 9% y/y, a 2 pp rise from Q3. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, and its growth rates have been very stable, with volatility of only around 0.3 pps. But electricity production rose 8% y/y, a record high for many years,...

Hoping We’ve Touched Bottom
CHINA · Forecast · 14 Nov 2016

GDP was up 6.7% y/y in Q3, maintaining the growth rate of Q1 and Q2. Rapid auto industry expansion and the steady real estate boom were the two main factors driving growth. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture was up 7% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q2. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, likewi...

A Transformed Export Structure
CHINA · Report · 01 Nov 2016

Growth seems very stable, if low, with GDP up 6.7% y/y in Q3, the same rate as in Q1 and Q2. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, likewise flat on Q2, and up 0.2 pps from Q3 2015. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 7% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q2.Retail sales of social consumption good...

Supply-Side Reforms Succeeding
CHINA · Report · 03 Oct 2016

Key economic indicators are signaling positive changes. Fixed asset investment was up 8.1% y/y in August, and up 4.2 pps from July, recovering to Q2 levels, and halting its declining trend. Industrial output was up 6.3% y/y, and up 0.3 pps from July. Retail sales of social consumption goods were ...

Why the IMF Raised its Growth Outlook
CHINA · Report · 25 Aug 2016

The IMF in June raised its 2016 growth outlook for China to 6.6%, a 0.1 pp uptick from its April projection, even though Brexit prompted the Fund to slice its global growth forecast for 2016 by 0.1 pp, to 3.1%. The growth upgrade for China shows that the IMF is optimistic about the major refo...

More Uncertainty Over the Yuan
CHINA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016

There’s downward pressure on growth, though we also expect growth rates to stabilize. GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Retail sales of social consumption goods rose 10.2% y/y in nominal t...

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