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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Brexit Stokes Yuan Uncertainty
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2016

GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, the same rate as in Q1. There’s downward pressure on future growth, though we also expect growth to stabilize. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Fixed asset investment rose 8.2% y/y in real terms, dow...

Uncertainties Persist
CHINA · Report · 27 Jun 2016

Uncertainties about growth are lingering. Fixed asset investment rose 7.5% y/y in May, a 4.2 pp plunge from Q1, and only slightly higher than the September nadir. That was due to a major drop in private investment growth, up only 0.9% y/y, a 4.8 pp fall from Q1. Value added for major industrial ...

Uncertainty Persists
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2016

Fixed asset investment growth slowed significantly in April, rising by 10.1% y/y, down 0.6 pps from Q1. Value added for major industrial firms was likewise weak, at 6% y/y, down 0.6 pps from March -- and a break from the previous recovery. We expect private investment to pick up after industrial ...

Encouraging Signs
CHINA · Forecast · 06 May 2016

Though the 6.7% y/y GDP rise in Q1 represented a slowdown from Q4 2015, improved principal indicators bolster our confidence in future growth. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y in March, a 0.7 pps rise from Q4. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 10.7% y/y, up 1.4 pps, with growth e...

Signs of Rebound
CHINA · Report · 28 Apr 2016

GDP rose 6.7% y/y in Q1. Although that is still slower than in Q4 2015, improved main indicators for growth bolster our confidence in future growth. Industrial output rose 6.8% y/y in March, up 0.7 pps from the previous quarter. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 10.7% y/y in Q1, ...

The Housing Boom is Back
CHINA · Report · 22 Mar 2016

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced in an address to Congress on March 5th that the economic growth target would be 6.5%-7% for 2016 - the first time a GDP growth target was set for a particular time frame. Industrial output rose 5.4% y/y, a new low in the current cycle of decline. Fixed asset in...

“Supply-Side Reforms” to Cut Overcapacity
CHINA · Report · 29 Feb 2016

Though many statistics are missing because of the Chinese New Year, we are optimistic about the economy, based on available data. In January, monetary policy continued the expansionary trend it began last July. Narrow money, M1, rose 18.6% y/y, up 3.4 pps from December, finally recovering to 2003...

Lower But Stabilizing Growth
CHINA · Forecast · 09 Feb 2016

Viewed in terms of quarterly data, the weakening growth trend is dissipating. True, real GDP was up just 6.9% in 2015, down 0.5 pps from 2014, and its lowest growth rate for 25 years. But GDP in Q4 was up 6.8% y/y, down only 0.2 pps from Q1, while H2 growth was stable. And the slowdown only began...

Both Growth and the Yuan Will Stabilize
CHINA · Report · 01 Feb 2016

Real GDP was up just 6.9% in 2015, down 0.5 pps from 2014, and its lowest growth rate for 25 years. This is causing great consternation in international markets. Yet the weakening growth trend is diminishing. GDP in Q4 was up 6.8% y/y, down only 0.2 pps from Q1, while H2 growth was stable. The sl...

Pollution Made Priority, Despite Growth Slowdown
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2015

With the IMF’s inclusion of the RMB in its SDR basket, the People’s Bank of China on December 11th published an “RMB index,” against 13 major currencies. This indicates that the RMB exchange rate has officially shifted back to its formally announced regime of “managed floating with reference to a...

Growth May Revive in Mid-2016
CHINA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2015

We expect growth to be low but stable, with the already-loose monetary and fiscal policy leading to strengthening. We therefore foresee a growth rebound in mid-2016. Meanwhile, GDP growth and fixed asset investment both fell in Q3, and producer prices fell further, continuing to deflate. GDP was ...

Capital Outflow Fears Overstated
CHINA · Report · 28 Oct 2015

GDP growth and fixed asset investment both fell in Q3, and producer prices fell further, continuing their deflation cycle. GDP was up 6.9% y/y in Q3, down 0.1 pps from Q2. Industrial output was up 5.9%, down 0.4 pps. Fixed asset investment was up 6.8% y/y in September and 8.7% y/y in Q3. Quarterl...

Local Debt Risk Contained
CHINA · Report · 21 Sep 2015

Fixed asset investment increased 9.2% y/y in real terms in August, reaching its lowest level since this cycle of investment slowdown. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, but price-adjusted actual growth was even lower. The PMI index published by the National Bureau of Statistics shows August PMI a...

Yuan Drop is a Correction
CHINA · Report · 26 Aug 2015

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment increased 10.3% y/y in real terms in July, and industrial output rose 6% y/y. Both key indicators were lower than in previous months. Although a month’s slowdown doesn’t suggest a recovery falloff, there are potential risks. The government needs to ease...

Expecting a Growth Rebound
CHINA · Forecast · 12 Aug 2015

Though growth is still low, we expect it to pick up in H2, driven by several positive factors. GDP grew 7% y/y in Q2, flat on Q1. The GDP deflator grew 2.54% y/y in Q2, up 1.12 pps from Q1. Although prices are picking up, and are slightly higher, both domestically and compared with other devel...

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