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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A blueprint for public expenditure in the future
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2018

An independent commission charged with making recommendations about the size, composition and efficiency of public spending in Colombia hasn’t advocated spending cuts, but has focused on efficiency, inflexibility and income redistribution. The Public Spending and Investment Commission (PSIC) h...

Polls, non-performing loans and downgrades
COLOMBIA · Report · 20 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Polls on the presidential race are still in an early stage of their Evolution. Apparently, the supply of and demand for votes are not matching quite yet in the political market. From our point of view, voters older than 35 and clientele voters will beat young urban and left-leaning voters. The wi...

Economic and political perspectives
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 01 Dec 2017

Is the economy showing signs of a slight recovery? How will the government comply with the fiscal rule over the medium-to-long term? How are the scenarios shaping up for the 2018 presidential election? This presentation highlights the medium term outlook for Colombia’s fiscal, monetary, and econo...

Economic and fiscal waters still choppy
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Nov 2017

The government argues that economic performance hasn’t been so bad, given the shocks since oil prices began plummeting in 2014. The opposition, in political campaign mode in the runup to the May 2018 elections, focuses more on the bleak numbers, contending growth is insufficient for continuing to...

The Apple of Discord
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Oct 2017

The 2018 national budget as approved by Congress included some significant differences from the original proposal, mainly in the partial restoration of severe proposed cuts to investment and spending. Congress raised investment to 4.1% of GDP, from the proposed 3.5% of GDP (yet it’ll still be dow...

Slugging Along, with Few Hopes for 2018
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Sep 2017

Q2 GDP growth figures clearly showed a weak economy, struggling to reach a mere 1.3% growth. Key indicators released since then show that the economy is still underwater – but also that it’s giving off nascent signs of recovery. The Industrial Confidence Index, after almost a semester of decl...

Bracing for an Anemic 2017
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Aug 2017 · 1 response

Growth projections of above 2% for 2017 now look rather remote, given Q2 results. Economic activity expanded by just 1.3%, similar to in Q1. H2 growth would have to top 3% for GDP to grow by the 2% the government forecasts, which now seems unlikely. This will probably lead to renewed congressiona...

The medium term: More questions than answers
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 27 Jul 2017

Several signs indicate that the Colombian economy is still not recovering. In employment indicators, retail trade, manufacturing and construction, things do not look very promising. Most retail sub-sectors are either falling, or performing very poorly. So the slowdown drags on, with no recovery ...

Funny Numbers
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jul 2017

​The new Medium Term Fiscal Framework contained few surprises. The central government’s fiscal deficit for 2017 is still estimated at 3.6% of GDP, in line with the revised fiscal rule target. That’s no mean feat, as a lot has changed this year. First, the economy will grow by less than the govern...

Lawyers, Liars and Murderers
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Jun 2017

New numbers related to the demand side of growth surprised almost everyone, due to the unexpected depth of the slowdown. Remember that aggregate demand grew only 1.1% during Q1, below already-low expectations of around 1.5%-1.7%. Too, poor investment performance is greatly influenced by investmen...

Starting Off Slow
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 May 2017

This year is off to a weak start in terms of economic activity. GDP expanded by a modest 1.1% in Q1, the lowest since 2009, indicating that the Government’s forecasts of 2% growth for 2017 might be too optimistic. Economic activity seems a lot weaker than what both the markets and the Government ...

A Weak Start
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2017

After a sobering Q1, we’ve cut our 2017 GDP growth forecast, to 1.9% from 2.5%. That’s also closer to the Central Bank’s 2% annual growth forecast. These results, and a more dovish Central Bank board composition, as expected lead the Bank to cut rates faster – 50 bp this month. We expect rates to...

Country Overview
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 17 Apr 2017

Rising deficits and net debt-to-GDP demonstrate a deterioration of the fiscal situation, despite the recent tax reform and Ecopetrol profits. The government’s addition to the budget (7.7 trillion COP) underscores the need for increased revenue. The economy is slowing and inflation is declining, s...

Less Austerity, More Intelligence?
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2017

Last week the Ministry of Finance presented a COP 7.7 trillion budgetary addition to Congress -- its first in nine years. This more than undoes the spending cut approved when the budget passed in Q4 2016. Under the label of “intelligent austerity,” the Ministry of Finance had earlier introduced a...

Old Wine in New Bottles
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2017

The government’s new Colombia Repunta (Colombia Picks up) aggregates all of its short-term economic activity-boosting measures. As with previous packages, these are mostly existing initiatives. Though little is new, the government projects that the package will add 1.3 pp of GDP growth in 2017. T...

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