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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A humiliating political defeat
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 02 May 2021

Following weekend consultations with political leaders in the wake of nationwide protests that lasted three days, president Duque finally came to terms with the fact that Minister Carrasquilla’s explosively unpopular attempt at widening both the VAT and the personal income tax base has to be scra...

Fear the wolf and the shepherd
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Mar 2021

These are times of flawed fiscal calculations, in which projections’ failure to match subsequent reality are having negative consequences. The 2020 budget was heavily under-executed, with more than COP 41 trillion (about 4 pp of GDP) of budgeted monies left undeployed. This is a very poor perform...

The dangers of deafness to suffering
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Mar 2021 · 2 responses

Last year’s 6.8% contraction represents, not surprisingly, the worst economic downturn in Colombian history – and only the fourth year in more than a century in which the economy has posted negative results. Though most sectors, especially manufacturing and commerce, followed overall GDP, agricul...

Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Venezuela: Quasi-sovereigns in Latin America and the evolving relationship with the sovereign
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Feb 2021

​In our live webinar, Juan Carlos Echeverry, Mauricio Gonzalez, Marco Fernandez and Ruth de Krivoy discuss the risks and opportunities to watch for in the sovereign/quasi-sovereign relationship in Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Venezuela. Our webinar is moderated by Joe Kogan, Head of Latin America...

Surprise picks for Central Bank board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

President Duque announced today that Ana Fernanda Maiguashca and Gerardo Hernández, members of the Board of Banco de la República since 2013 and 2017, respectively, will be replaced by Bibiana Taboada and Mauricio Villamizar.The year started with wide speculation as to who was going to be replace...

Taxes hikes and ISA sale to raise pandemic funds
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

Increasing the scope of the welfare state and strengthening the state presence nationally, two key tenets of the 1991 Constitution, have raised government spending over the last three decades. Given the public spending pressures generated by the pandemic, and the need to start a fiscal adjustment...

Introspection at the end of 2020
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Balance of payments data show that the current account deficit continued to shrink, from a 3.6% of GDP deficit at the start of 2020, to 3% in Q2, then 2.7% in Q3. While this reduces the economy’s exposure to financing gaps, the reduction deserves a closer look. The improvement in remittances and ...

Who is afraid of Gustavo Petro?
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Dec 2020

The national government deficit for 2020, estimated at 8.2% of GDP in June, was by November rising toward 8.9%, and the estimated deficit for 2021 had been massively revised upward, to 7.6%, from 5.1% of GDP in June. Given that the government’s GDP growth forecasts were also revised downward, fro...

Lower for longer for sure
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Nov 2020 · 1 response

The Central Bank was quick to act during the first days of the COVID lockdown, so Colombia took the lead in implementing one of the region’s first QE programs to prop up financial sector liquidity. The Bank was also instrumental in negotiating FCL enlargement with the IMF. Between March and Septe...

The pirates are circling
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Oct 2020

The plunge in aggregate demand, coupled with reduced remittances of profits abroad, cut Colombia’s current account deficit by half a percentage point of GDP between Q1 and Q2. Since the downturn continued during Q3, the risk of worsening external imbalances vis-à-vis 2019 is low. With abundant l...

​Echavarría cleared for another 4-year term at the Central Bank
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 30 Sep 2020

Even though Law 1821 states that 70 years is the mandatory retirement age for public (unelected) officials, the Constitutional Court ruled today that this restriction does not apply to the members of the Board of the Central Bank, including the Governor. The ruling was based on the fact that Banc...

A Sensible Move
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 28 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The IMF approved Colombia’s request to increase the size of its Flexible Credit Line (FCL) facility from USD 10.800 million (4% of GDP, approved last May) to USD 17.300 million (6.5% of GDP). The Ministry of Finance announced that part of the additional resources (USD 5.300 million or 2.0% of GDP...

It’s time to (cautiously) reopen
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Sep 2020

The unprecedented 15.7% contraction in Q2 was hardly a surprise. But there is uncertainty over the distribution of “pain” across sectors and aggregate demand, and the depth of the collapse. Almost all sectors were hard hit. But agriculture, financial and insurance activities, and real estate acti...

Ballooning fiscal confusion and too little economic support
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Aug 2020

For the first time since 2012, Colombia is living without a fiscal rule. Prior to the crisis, this year's national central government deficit was expected to fall from 2.5% of GDP in 2019 to 2.3% of GDP in 2020, based on 16.7% of GDP 2020 revenues and 19% of GDP of expenses. Under the new COVI...

Untouchables, The End
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Aug 2020

On August 4, five Supreme Court (SC) Justices unanimously found enough merits to impose house arrest on former president and current senator Alvaro Uribe. Uribe and his lawyers may have been involved (allegedly) in witness tampering, in a case against him for (allegedly) supporting the creation o...

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