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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

On realism, fantasy and pain
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Jul 2020

With the publication of the new Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, we finally have a clear picture of expectations for impacts on revenues, the deficit, debt and financing. The NCG deficit is projected to soar to 8.2% of GDP this year, from 2.5% in 2019. Fiscal consolidation is expected to start in 20...

Fiscal rule suspended
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jun 2020

The government formally asked the external committee of the fiscal rule to suspend the rule in 2020 and 2021. During a meeting that took place on June the 15th, the committee unanimously voted in favor of the government’s request. Its members consider the leeway given by the parametric deviations...

Bracing for the Worst Downturn in History
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Jun 2020

President Iván Duque’s early public health actions, among them a nationwide lockdown in March, were hailed as timely. These have been gradually eased since mid-April, and everyone hopes the health system can cope. Otherwise, Colombians might be returned to confinement. We’re all but certain that ...

A delicate, short-lived disconnect between politics and economics
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 May 2020

Countries that entered the COVID-19 crisis strong are likely to emerge stronger, and those that entered weak may leave in an even weaker state. The crucial issue will be actions during the crisis. Three issues common to all strategies are: 1) saving the health care system and preventing the pande...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar: The depth of recession and the ramp of recovery​
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2020

Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discuss Colombia’s macro and fiscal outlook in response to the coronavirus crisis.​

External committee of the fiscal rule activates countercyclical spending clause
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The external committee of the fiscal rule met on April 16th to review the fiscal situation in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was great expectation around the outcome of this meeting, as the government has been forced to make decisions with considerable fiscal implications on the fly,...

Minister Carrasquilla on the flexible credit line with the IMF
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Apr 2020

During a debate in Congress today, carried out using one of the many VC apps out there, Minister Carrasquilla addressed the question of increases in the fiscal package to face the negative effects of COVID-19 across different sectors of the economy. He mentioned four circles or areas of attention...

Keynes vs. Thanos
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Coronavirus cases in Colombia have been steadily rising, to 702 as of March 29th. The early rise has been faster than in Italy, Spain or United States – but seems to be moving in tandem with the rest of the region. Government experts have stated that, under a no-measures scenario, Colombia could...

Colombian Central Bank’s March 23, 2020 liquidity provision measures
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2020 · 1 response

In recent weeks, Colombian asset managers different from banks, have been affected by a flight to liquidity, which in a short span reduced their assets under management from COP 87 trillion to around COP 60 trillion. On March 18, 2020, the Central Bank 1) admitted to the group of institutions wit...

Duque government declares state of economic emergency
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Mar 2020 · 2 responses

Yesterday night, president Duque addressed the Nation, announcing the decision of the cabinet of ministers to declare a state of economic emergency, which under the Constitution gives the government the capacity to legislate by issuing government decrees, without the need of going through the nor...

Hunting in the zoo
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

When it comes to surprise, the January press conference to present the revised fiscal outlook did not disappoint. It was announced that the 2019 deficit was 2.5% of GDP -- far below the ceiling imposed by the relevant External Committee, and down from 3% in 2018. That would have been good news, e...

Credit, employment and expectations
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Feb 2020

The economy seems on track to meet 2019’s 3.3% consensus growth target, and expectations for this year point to something slightly better. Yet averages could mask important differences. Our analysis suggests a credit slowdown is about to begin, which means 2020 could be the peak growth year fo...

To lose a lot is to win a little
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Dec 2019 · 1 response

It was 4:00 am of Friday the 20th, and the House of Representatives was still in session debating the new tax reform, known as the “Ley de Crecimiento”. On Monday, few people believed the reform could be approved by the end of the week. Even more, “extra sessions” were added until the 23rd to get...

Between Borges and Defcon 3
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Dec 2019

One way of characterizing the latest on the external sector is that the factor payments deficit is fully offset by current transfers (remittances), leaving Colombia with a current account balance as big as its trade deficit. This could be a precarious equilibrium. In the event of a new global eco...

Duque’s epiphany
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2019

The fate of the government’s tax reform proposal was, up until the beginning of the last week of November, a big unknown. It seems however, the worst part is over. During an infrastructure congress in Cartagena on November 21st, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla spoke optimistically about...

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