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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Medina’s Next Term: Continuity Over Innovation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 30 Aug 2016

President Danilo Medina’s mandatory speech before Congress on the inauguration day of his second four-year term sent a message of continuity, rather than innovation. His words conveyed hope and optimism, as he highlighted the achievements of his first term, and announced goals for the second. No...

Astonishing GDP, employment and CAD figures for H1
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Aug 2016

On Wednesday, the Central Bank reported GDP preliminary figures for H1 2016. Results are, once again, surprising: a 7.4% growth compared to H1 2015. This remarkable expansion of economic activity was mainly driven by an extraordinary expansion of production in Q2, when GDP registered an 8.7% grow...

Inauguration speech and Cabinet reshuffling signaling continuity rather than innovation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Aug 2016

Yesterday, Danilo Medina was proclaimed President for a new term. In short, his inauguration speech points towards policy continuity and very few innovations or ruptures. Most of the speech was devoted to outline social achievements of the past term and new goals for the next four years. For that...

Fiscal Talks Likely to Take a Back Seat
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 29 Jul 2016

Discussion of political reform is very likely to precede talks over electrical sector reform, and the so-called Fiscal Pact. Business leaders have stressed that good party and electoral laws are a priority, a view shared by almost all civic organizations. The government has been responsive, and h...

The President’s Very Full Plate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Jun 2016

Economic activity continues to expand rapidly. Monthly growth in April was up 10.1% over April 2015, and up 7.1% January through April. We expect lower figures starting in May, as public spending moderates. Inflation remains low, with annualized inflation at 1.71%, well below the 4% (± 1.0%) tar...

Economic growth in April: 10.1%!
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

Last week, the Central Bank announced that the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE, for its Spanish acronym) for the month of April registered a 10.1% expansion in economic activity. This is an impressive figure, with few precedents. Also IMAE results for March registered a growth of 7.2...

Medina’s Victory is Undisputed, But Local Elections Look Crooked
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 27 May 2016

As expected, President Danilo Medina won reelection by a landslide. In 140 of 158 municipalities where vote counting was complete early this week, Medina had won 61.7% of the vote. His challenger, the PRM’s Luis Abinader, won 35%. Medina’s PLD and its allies are also likely to take 28 of 32 Se...

Post election tensions
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 May 2016

Four days after national elections, the country is living in tension because the final tally for Congress and municipal authorities haven’t been finished. Negligence and serious organizational problems in a complex by nature process have become apparent and have caused serious delays and tensions...

President Danilo Medina wins reelection with 62% of the votes
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 May 2016

Danilo Medina has been reelected as President of the Dominican Republic with 62% of the votes, according to preliminary data from the Junta Central Electoral (central board of elections). Challenging candidate Luis Abinader received 35% of the votes. Guillermo Moreno received almost 2% of the vot...

Elections update
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 May 2016

This Sunday May 15 the Dominican Republic will hold national elections. These elections are complex because they are simultaneously at three levels: for President and Vice-President, for Congress (32 senators and 190 representatives), and municipal authorities. 158 Mayors (and deputy mayors) will...

Q1 2016 preliminary results: 6.1% GDP growth and a decline in unemployment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 May 2016

The Central Bank announced that economic activity starts up strongly in 2016. Official figures set GDP growth in Q1 2016 at 6.1% compared to q1 2015. Although in January the short term indicator of economic activity reflected a relatively low growth, in February and March activities picked up sig...

Medina Headed for Landslide Win
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 26 Apr 2016

As campaigning for the May 15th general election enters the home stretch, nothing has surfaced to dramatically change the forecasts: President Danilo Medina and his PLD continue to head toward a landslide first-round victory. Two reputable opinion polls found that Medina’s popularity had even inc...

Admirable precision or convenient accounting?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Mar 2016

The Ministry of Finance just reported the fiscal balance figures for 2015. The results indicate that budget management was right on target: the deficit of the Central Government reached almost exactly the goal for the year, DOP 72.7 bn or 2.38% of GDP. The striking thing is that until October,...

NFPS deficit for 2015 right on target (2.4% of GDP). Central Bank says different
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 14 Mar 2016

The Ministry of Finance has finally released the figures of fiscal year 2015. The data set the NFPS deficit at DOP 72.7 bn. This is equivalent to 2.38% of GDP, right at the level that was set as a target for 2015 by the budget law. Our estimates pointed to a slightly higher deficit due to weak re...

Medina Still Likely to Win in the First Round
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 25 Feb 2016

The Ministry of Finance still hasn’t published or reported data on the 2015 fiscal balance. Data is available to November, and is unreliable for forecasting the closure of the year. Still, we expect the NFPS fiscal deficit to come in slightly over its target under the Budget Law. This year beg...

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