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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Guillermo Lasso and the Ecuadorian Debt
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Aug 2016

Some of our clients have expressed their concern regarding recent statements from Presidential Candidate Guillermo Lasso regarding his intention of "reviewing all foreign debt issued under this government".The statement is surprising coming from a former banker who truly understands the rules of ...

Trying Times
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Jul 2016

The Ecuadorian economy contracted severely in Q1, with GDP shrinking 1.9% q/q, and 3% y/y. Despite the poor performance of oil revenues due to plummeting oil prices, the oil sector value added was still positive, at 2% q/q and 1% y/y, while the non-oil sector shrank 2.2% q/q and 2.6% y/y. Hous...

Playing Political Games, As the Economy Burns
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Jun 2016

With his popularity and credibility falling to 35%, from 60% last year, and government corruption scandals erupting everywhere, President Rafael Correa is reverting to an old political strategy: targeting new enemies, in a strategy to regain lost support. The first target is Catherine Holli...

A Shot of Vodka Might Help
ECUADOR · Report · 25 May 2016

Businesses are complaining of tax bullying, on the heels of two new tax reforms over the past four months. The first initiative, called the Bill of Fiscal Equilibrium, levied new taxes on sugared drinks, telephone services and cigarettes, and drastically cut the limit (from $10,000 to $1089) o...

IMF in Ecuador's Sight
ECUADOR · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

The earthquake of last April 16, has forced the government to seek help from the IMF. Minister of Finance Fausto Herrero confirmed he is working with multilateral to set a fast loan agreement to cover part of the losses from the natural disaster. He insisted, however, that the loan must come "wit...

Ecuador Tries to Rise After the Earthquake
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Apr 2016

Nobody was prepared for the catastrophic event of April 16. The aftermath is still being assessed, and even though President Correa’s assessment that the resulting costs will be around $3 billion or 3% of GDP might be premature, it is clear that the reconstruction will take several years. Minis...

Gloomy and Difficult
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2016

A group of retired officers attended a February 26th military ceremony clad entirely in black, then stalked off across the red carpet when President Rafael Correa began to speak. Correa called them “little naughties,” but his nervousness was evident, when he entered the ceremony surrounded by hea...

Academically, Ecuador Is Not In Crisis
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Feb 2016

President Rafael Correa, his ministers and the general manager of the Central Bank insist that “times are tough,” and that “the Ecuadorian economy is cooling off,” but also that the country has the means to overcome all problems. Correa even stated in an international TV interview that “academica...

Correa The Chess Player
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Dec 2015

Six months ago, Correa was ready to run for another election in 2017 and was strongly pushing reforms to the Constitution that would allow indefinite re-election. A few weeks ago, he declared his presence in the 2017 elections was not necessary given the evidence of a week and not articulated opp...

ECUADOR WILL PAY THE 2015
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 Dec 2015

President Correa announced that the Republic has allocated the money to make payment of the $650 million par value of Global Bonds 2015 by next December the 15th and of the first payment to OXY of a total of $1061.7 million ruled by the World Bank's international settlements court. The total amou...

Healthy Vanity
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Nov 2015

In a sign of healthy and deserved vanity, President Rafael Correa has announced that he won’t run for reelection in 2017. Given the obvious fragmentation and mediocrity of the opposition, he said, his otherwise crucial presence wouldn’t be necessary to guarantee his party’s continuance in power. ...

Minister Herrera Assures Payment of Global Bonds 2015
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Nov 2015

Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera announced today that financing needs for next year's budget will be around $6.6 billion. According to the Minister sources for $4.5 billion are already identified: $2 b coming from multilateral institutions (World Bank, IDB, CAF) and $1.5b from China. The govern...

Sour Drink
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Oct 2015

Q1 and Q2 GDP shrinkage, of -0.1% and -0.3%, confirmed widespread fears that Ecuador is in recession. No one was surprised. But officials have been slow to react, only recently talking about economic adjustments they admit might be a “sour drink for the population.” Minister of Finance Fausto ...

Dollarization At All Cost
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2015

Dollarization at all costs was Finance Minister Fausto Herrera’s promise during a recent press conference – where listeners responded with a standing ovation. Herrera said the government would do whatever it takes to maintain the dollarized regime, by increasing the inflow of dollars, and protect...

As if Nature Itself is Protesting
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Aug 2015

Though it’s still too soon to speak of recession in Ecuador, Q1 GDP performance, the negative oil price outlook for H2, casts doubt upon the official growth estimate of 1.9% for 2015. And economic prospects for 2016 look even worse as the Minister of Finance, Fausto Herrera declared the governmen...

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