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Economics and Politics, 140 days into the BJP Government
INDIA · Report · 10 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The defining issue in India’s business cycle downturn has been weakness in investment. This has been shaped by difficulties in implementing projects, and in the gloom of firms that felt future profitability was not going to be good. Reviving investment is a central priority of t...

Difficulties on Inflation and Monetary Policy
INDIA · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Executive Summary It is widely believed that Governor Rajan is more hawkish on inflation. But the policy rate, expressed in real terms, is not higher in his first year when compared with the previous two years. Monetary policy must choose between inflation policy and exchange rate policy, and the...

The fiscal correction that India requires is feasible: Aadhaar and subsidy reform holds the key
INDIA · Report · 09 Sep 2014

The size of the task Last year (i.e. 2013-14 RE), the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP. The fiscal deficit budgeted for 2014-15 is 4.1% of GDP. The budget speech has said that the target for 2015-16 is 3.6% and then the target for 2016-17 is 3% of GDP. For India to achieve macroeconomic stability, ...

The Indian budget speech
INDIA · In Brief · 10 Jul 2014 · 1 response

The speech is a disappointment. It sounds much like the budget speeches of the last 10 years: A lot of focus on trivial and small actions that pursue one narrow target group after another. There was little evidence of the big thinking that's required. It reiterates the problem of the BJP: they wo...

Economic strategy thinking at the Ministry of Finance
INDIA · In Brief · 09 Jul 2014

Just before the budget, they have released an important document that gives a good big picture about economic reforms in India: http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2013-14/echap-02.pdf

The Economic Strategy of the Modi Government
INDIA · Report · 08 Jul 2014

The Economic Survey and the Budget Speech of the next two days are a crucial milestone for the Modi administration. Contrary to the claims made during the campaign, there is little sign of a plan, a team or a coherent strategy for economic policy. The Budget speech is unlikely to rival July 1991 ...

The First Few Weeks Of The Modi Administration
INDIA · Report · 11 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The new BJP government has done better than expected in some respects and worse in others. It is now possible to start understanding how this new arrangement will work. Cabinet Formation Expectations were sky-high about the Modi administration doing better on cabinet formation. ...

Election 2014: An Unexpected Majority
INDIA · Report · 16 May 2014

The election results, which give the BJP a clear majority, are the first time since 1984 that one party has had a majority. This opens up all sorts of exciting possibilities. An Unexpected Majority In 1984, the Congress won 414 seats compared with the 272 required for a majority. After that, no s...

Outlook on the Elections
INDIA · Report · 12 May 2014

Executive SummaryIt would be surprising if the mainstream projections of a clear majority for the BJP work out. The NDA is likely to come to power, but as a weak coalition dependent on the support of a few allies and it is likely to have a weak position in the Rajya Sabha until 2016. It is unlike...

Expect Continuity, Not Change
INDIA · Report · 26 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The media has anointed the BJP as a frontrunner in the spring elections, amid palpable disappointment with the ruling UPA, due to anemic growth, high inflation, and corruption. The UPA neglected all three of these issues in favor of focusing on subsidies. The election will serve...

Recovery by Yearend?
INDIA · Report · 25 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Our report of December 2, 2013 projected export buoyancy and a fall in companies’ interest rate payments, and said this would lead to better performance for large firms in 2013. Q4 data bears out all three predictions -- though the improvements were less robust than we expected....

Growth Got Better And Inflation Decelerated
INDIA · Report · 24 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The report of 2 December 2013 had suggested that in Q4 2013 there would be export buoyancy, reduced interest payments by firms, and hence improved performance of large firms. All three predictions have been borne out by the Q4 data. There is some easing of tradeables inflation, ...

A Late-Year Growth Rebound?
INDIA · Report · 18 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryCPI inflation is slowing, as both the shock INR depreciation delivered to tradeables inflation in mid-2013, and food inflation, are subsiding. This is delivering an optimistic inflation picture, with CPI inflation falling into the single digits for the first time this year.The Re...

Outlook for 2014
INDIA · Report · 17 Feb 2014

There was a shock to tradeables inflation owing to the INR depreciation in mid-2013, which has subsided. In recent months, food inflation has also subsided. Put together, this is starting to yield some gains in CPI inflation. RBI is trying to establish an inflation targeting monetary policy frame...

Fundamental Change in Financial Regulation
INDIA · In Brief · 10 Jan 2014

The Indian Financial Code: A bridge too far? Transformative change of the Indian State takes place through big projects. We seem to combine stasis in government, with ground-up rethinking in big projects. Six big projects are now in the fray: Goods and Services Tax (GST) Direct Tax Code (DTC) Ind...

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