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The monetary policy and exchange rate situation
INDIA · Report · 27 Dec 2022

Conditions on the INR market have changed; RBI now seems to be preventing an INR appreciation. Conditions on inflation have also changed: there has been a sharp decline in month-on-month price gains. When the Fed raises rates in coming months, there will now be a conflict at RBI. The exchange...

Greater sanity at the end of a startup tech boom
INDIA · Report · 14 Nov 2022

India went through a dramatic period with the success of technology startups backed by venture capital. At its peak this phenomenon induced a significant impact upon the labor market and was starting to reshape the behavior of established financial and non-financial firms. The bloom is off this r...

The monetary policy and exchange rate situation
INDIA · Report · 30 Sep 2022

The export boom of 2020 and 2021 came to a halt in early 2022. Discounted crude oil from Russia has helped keep down the cost of importing crude oil. Inflation that exceeds the target of 4% remains a problem. Rupee depreciation will pass through into a small increase in inflation. The trailing P/...

Reading economics in chess
INDIA · Report · 06 Sep 2022

Indians have done well in chess for a long time. In September 2022, 11 of the top 50 teenagers were from India. This underlines the upper tail capabilities in India in the eyes of global decision makers. The rebranding of India was shaped by the comic strip Dilbert’s “Asok” character in the 19...

The INR at 80
INDIA · Report · 25 Jul 2022

Recent statements by the RBI Governor have clarified the commitment of RBI to defending the exchange rate. Round numbers such as 65, 70, 75, 80, etc. seem to be places where the RBI takes a stand. USD/INR volatility is lower for the last Rs.1 or Rs.2 prior to the round number, and then volatility...

The short-term and medium-term outlook for export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 21 Jul 2022

During the pandemic, Developed Markets consumers supported the world economy by buying more goods, and there was a great export boom in India. This export boom is likely to subside, given the combination of DM fiscal policy normalization, monetary tightening, and DM consumers' rotating away from ...

Outlook on the recovery
INDIA · Report · 12 Jul 2022

The most interesting question in Indian economics concerns the strong performance of listed companies in late 2021 and early 2022: will this be maintained and will it carry forward? Or will it peter out? Strong firm performance has been assisted so far by high export growth, but there are some...

Developments in monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2022

The inflation situation in India is in violation of the inflation target (which demands 4% inflation, and a band between 2 and 6 per cent), but the deviations are relatively modest when compared with those seen in DMs. The RBI is facing difficulties achieving its three objectives – exchange rate ...

Monetary policy strategy in a time of DM tightening
INDIA · Report · 16 Jun 2022

The RBI is juggling three objectives: a desired level of the exchange rate, cheap financing for the fiscal deficit, and inflation. In recent months, there have been capital outflows and the sale of reserves as part of currency policy. DM tightening will exacerbate these pressures. There may be ca...

Disputed taxes and their implications for the measured fiscal situation
INDIA · Report · 13 Jun 2022

In this report, we show a weakness of conventional fiscal data. Many times, it appears that taxes are paid by a private person, but simultaneously litigated. The stock of this litigation has risen to economically significant values. Alongside this, there is evidence that the win rate for the gove...

Webinar Replay: Is India on track for a robust recovery?
INDIA · Report · 20 May 2022

Get insight into India's macro outlook for 2022 and the potential for an economic recovery. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring economist Dr. Ajay Shah discussing India's recovery and the state of the Indian economy.

A surprise rate hike
INDIA · Report · 06 May 2022

On May 4, the RBI came out with a surprise 40-bp rate hike. There are three puzzles here: Why a surprise action, why 40 bps, and why May 4? What is the monetary policy strategy that plausibly generated this? It is possible to reconstruct the logic for this from the viewpoint of exchange rate obj...

Hint of a recovery of private investment
INDIA · Report · 22 Apr 2022

Private investment is unusually important in shaping macroeconomic conditions in India. From 2011/2012 onward, a critical measure of private investment – the stock of investment projects at hand, expressed in real terms – has been declining. For the first time, the recent data suggests that this ...

The state of the recovery: firms faring better than households
INDIA · Report · 11 Apr 2022

There is a divergence in the picture of the economy as seen in data for large firms vs. the data for households. The large firms are faring well. For the first time since 2013, expansion of net sales and operating profit is seen, in real terms, in the aggregate values for non-financial non-oi...

De-facto change in monetary policy stance
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The monetary policy statement though retained the accommodative stance but the wording was changed to: ...."remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth." There is a possibility that th...

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