Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Macroeconomic conditions in Apr-May-Jun 2019
INDIA · Report · 07 Sep 2019

The Indian economy and the listed firms got strong growth in 1991–2011. After that, there have been greater difficulties. The top line of listed companies (non-oil and non-finance) has seen three weak patches. There was the Lehman crisis, when aggregate sales actually declined. There was a flat p...

This time is different: comparing 2008 and 2018 in the performance of the automobile industry
INDIA · Report · 15 Aug 2019

We compare 2008 and 2018 as seen in three components of the automobile industry – HCV (heavy commercial vehicles), passenger cars and two-wheelers. In all three cases, we work with seasonally adjusted levels, and express the starting value as an index of 100. This permits direct comparison of two...

Settlement systems on stock exchanges in India
INDIA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2019

In the bad old days, the Indian financial markets infrastructure worked poorly. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) used to have many settlement failures. The last major failure which took place on the equity market was on the Calcutta Stock Exchange in 2001. (There was also a settlement failure in a...

A batch of policy initiatives to combat the current financial stress
INDIA · Report · 19 Jul 2019

A package of policy initiatives aimed at addressing the current financial stress came out from the RBI, SEBI and the Ministry of Finance from June 27 to July 6. We look at the stock price response of large private financial firms. The impact is somewhat negative. There may be an element of procyc...

Leading indicator report for Apr-Jun 2019
INDIA · Report · 15 Jul 2019

Using the data now available, we are able to calculate the leading indicator for Apr-Jun 2019, but not the coincident indicator for this same quarter. We see a turning point in business cycle conditions in Q1 2018. The leading indicator gives us a sense of what will happen to the coincident i...

Analyzing the Budget announcement of July 5, 2019
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2019

The July budget speech, of the NDA-3, is the first of a five-year period. It is expected to establish the priorities and the work program of the coming five years. It takes place at a time when there is significant financial and economic stress. On about July 18, we will release our business cycl...

The difficulties of signalling, old and new
INDIA · Report · 25 Jun 2019

The NBFC (non-banking financial company) industry is in the midst of a stress test. Some firms such as HDFC are widely trusted by lenders, while others are not. The key puzzle for each healthy firm is about signalling to lenders that it is of high quality. Lenders have relied on three key sign...

Dewan Housing default
INDIA · In Brief · 25 Jun 2019

An important stressed firm in India today is Dewan Housing (DHFL). They are a balance sheet of about Rs.1 trillion. They seem to have stock market returns correlations with a few other important firms (Yes Bank, Indiabulls Housing), and the cluster adds up to about a Rs.5 trillion balance sheet.U...

Update on the financial stress
INDIA · Report · 17 Jun 2019 · 1 response

We compute distance to default for large private firms using data as of June 10, 2019. With financial firms, there is a focus on eight firms which add up to a balance sheet size of about Rs.10 trillion. Three firms (Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and Federal Bank) have seen no deterioration in the dist...

Concerns about GDP measurement
INDIA · Report · 12 Jun 2019

​The previous "Chief Economic Advisor" to the Ministry of Finance, Arvind Subramaniam (who now lives in the US), has released a paper suggesting that GDP growth was overstated from 2011 to 2017. We have long known that the methodology change, which came into effect for the series starting from 20...

Update on the financial stress – the deeper problem in real estate
INDIA · Report · 12 Jun 2019

Dewan Housing ("DHFL"), which has a balance sheet of about Rs.1.3 trillion, has defaulted. By September 2018, this firm was on the shortlist of stressed financial firms, and now we have the default. This will be a difficult default to address, as India does not have a resolution process for finan...

Firm data in Jan-Mar 2019
INDIA · Report · 04 Jun 2019

After a long wait, we have four quarters of relatively good performance by the large listed companies, for the period ended Jan-Mar 2019. The four quarters had nominal net sales growth and nominal operating profit growth of about 10% or more. Net profit has bounced back from the abysmal performan...

What follows the remarkable election outcome
INDIA · Report · 24 May 2019

Narendra Modi has scored a historic win. It is hard to recall a moment in Indian history when the outcome of an election has been so decisive. India is now in that rare situation, of a leadership endowed with electoral legitimacy, that has a five-year horizon. Last time, in 2014, the BJP launc...

Recent troubles and downgrades
INDIA · In Brief · 22 May 2019

In previous reports, we have been watching the distance-to-default (DtD) of large private financial firms. Using data for 10 May, we had found that there were 3 large private banks (Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Yes Bank) and 6 large private NBFCs (Shriram Transport Finance, Edelweiss Financial,...

Weak business cycle conditions in the Indian economy
INDIA · In Brief · 14 May 2019

For a few years, there has been a tension between two views of the Indian economy. One view was grounded in the GDP data, and saw high GDP growth rates. Another view was grounded in the firm data, and saw weak performance of firms. Our work on building a `coincident indicator' is a valuable path ...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.