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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025

OVERVIEW THE MASKS COME OFF The series of crises generated by the Lula administration has shattered myths and exposed personal and systemic weaknesses. With no real plan for the country other than increasing public spending to keep the Workers' Party (PT) in power, the current model distor...

Anatomy of an imbalance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025

GDP grew by 1.4% in the first quarter compared to last of 2024 in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly below the average market forecast of 1.5%. Compared to the same period last year, it grew 2.9%, also slightly below expectations. There were no surprises in terms of growth breakdown: as antic...

Nawrocki will be the next Polish president. The hopes of the government coalition weaken.
POLAND · In Brief · 02 Jun 2025

The election night on June 1st was very stressful, as the initial results were on the edge. The first exit polls showed a slight advantage for Trzaskowski (0.6 pp at 9:00 pm), but the two subsequent late exit polls during the night showed a slight advantage for Nawrocki. However, the early mornin...

Politics: High profile CDMX killings spark nationwide concern
MEXICO · Report · 02 Jun 2025 · 1 response

In a country accustomed to alarming levels of violence and a staggering death count, Mexico was nevertheless shocked by the May 20 murder of two close collaborators of Clara Brugada, head of the Mexico City government. The killing of Brugada’s personal secretary and a close advisor was well plann...

Congress hosts the XI BRICS Parliamentary Forum, the government continues to discuss the IOF decree, and the STF will hear two appeals on the Internet Bill of Rights
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025

Congress is expected to have a quieter week, as it hosts the XI BRICS Parliamentary Forum, which will include representatives from 31 legislative bodies and approximately 150 legislators from other countries. The IOF issue remains on the government and Congress’s agenda. Lower House President Hug...

Economics: News and indicators as of May point to further economic stalling
MEXICO · Report · 02 Jun 2025

Revised first quarter GDP data showed the economy sputtering to a 0.6% yoy seasonally adjusted rate of growth while all components of industrial activity contracted during the same period. In most branches of activity, the economic indicators for March and those available for April show a greate...

Essential CIS Politics: June 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2025

- Russia launches the largest strike of the war in likely preparation for a summer offensive. - Russian and Ukrainian delegations negotiate in Istanbul and plan to meet again on June 2. - The largest information leak in Russian history reveals sensitive nuclear secrets. - G...

Unsettling politics, flagging economy
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

The battle of wills between President Erdogan and the main opposition CHP reached a crescendo last week, with courts ordering the arrest of 100 suspects on charges of graft, 5 of the suspects being CHP borough and township mayors. There are credible rumors that another court will rule the prev...

Moody's affirmed their Baa2/Negative sovereign rating to Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2025

This means that the government has escaped a downgrading from a key rating agency for now. But the negative outlook was maintained, and Moody's will review their rating again no later than November 28. The next review by a top-3 agency is due in a week's time, by Fitch Ratings, currently rating H...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco issues bonds, Oman records Q1 deficit, Fitch expects mild Dubai property correction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 May 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $62 amidst reports that OPEC+ could boost July output by more than 0.4m b/d. * Trump said Iran talks are going well and warned Israel not to strike. There could be an interim deal. * Saudi Arabia conducted a...

Domestic demand shrinks in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 30 May 2025

The Turkish economy grew by 1% in the first quarter of the year, sequentially, which was notably less than expected (around 1.5%), while annual growth was 2.0%, y/y (Graph 1). The expenditure composition of growth is starkly different in annual vs. sequential (quarter-on-quarter) data, with domes...

Growth in industry to remain slow in 2025 despite some improvements in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 May 2025

After an abrupt slowdown of industrial growth in 1Q25 (1.1% up y-o-y that followed a 5.7% y-o-y increase in 4Q24 and 4.6% in 2024 as a whole), April statistics looked somewhat better, albeit marginally. In 4M25, industrial output grew by 1.5% y-o-y, which pulled the 4M25 tally to 1.2% y-o-y. Seas...

May CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Tajikistan cuts rates, Uzbekistan's FX reserve reach record-highs, Azerbaijan's CPI breaches CPI target range
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 May 2025 · 1 response

I briefly touch on the key macro and political events in the CCA in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 5.2% YoY in 1Q25 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 5.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Amulsar mine launch may have positive impact on GDP growth of about 0.5% Armenia: Central Bank keeps po...

The Finance Ministry may revise the IOF tax increase due to backlash, the STF begins adjudication of three important cases, and next week will be the XI BRICS Parliamentary Forum
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2025

After the negative backlash to the decree that raised the IOF on credit and foreign exchange operations, the Ministry of Finance may revise certain aspects of the measure. The goal is to address the R$ 800 billion in tax waivers granted by the government. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) be...

Haddad met with congressional leaders to discuss the IOF tax increase, the Senate approved the bill that grants a salary increase to federal servants, and the Senate also approved advertising restrictions on “bets”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met yesterday with the President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, and party leaders. Despite pressure from Congress, according to Haddad, there is no alternative to the IOF decree at this time. On Wednesday, May 28, the...

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