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Mexico Macro Monitor: Gross fixed investment recorded its fifth consecutive decline in January 2025
MEXICO · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Gross fixed investment in January: Annual decline recorded for the fifth consecutive month, again due to a sharp contraction in construction investment. Gross fixed investment (GFI) contracted by -5.9% YoY in the first month of this year, continuing the negative trend that began in the second hal...

The US tariffs on Kazakhstan look peculiar, but the overall impact of the US trade policy won’t be unnoticed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

As the US administration published the list of countries and tariffs imposed on many countries, Kazakhstan found itself in a quite peculiar situation as its foreign trade with the US so far was insignificant. According to the Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics, exports to the US accounted for a...

Decent print, but brace for bumps ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2025

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 2.5%, m/m, in March (versus consensus forecasts of around 2.9%) with the annual CPI-inflation rate falling by a full percentage point to 38.1%, from 39.1% in February. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 1.9% increase in the month, lowering the 12-...

Trump announces reciprocal tariffs impacting Brazilian exports, President Lula’s popularity drops even further, and the rapporteur for the tax exemption bill is announced
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will impose a 10% tariff on Brazilian imports—the minimum rate proposed by the American president. The measure will take effect starting Saturday, April 5. The 10% rate for Brazil is lower than the initial expectations of the U.S. government...

Economic activity remains moderate in February, and the trend to persist in 2025
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for aggregate economic activity accounting for industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew by 1.7% y-o-y in 2M25 and 0.3% y-o-y in February alone. The y-o-y numbers look unimpressive (especially i...

Government macro forecast changes in the right direction but at the wrong time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Early this week, Mr. Nagy, the economy minister, announced a scaling back of the government's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from the 3.4% included in the annual budget, parallel to raising this year's forecast for average CPI-inflation to 4.5% from the original 3.2%. These are exactly the figu...

"Liberation Day" tariffs have limited direct impact on the GCC but have hurt the oil price
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

As a hot take on the impact of the US tariff announcements on the GCC, here are two positives, two negatives, and two areas that are currently unknown. There will be much more to discuss as responses and secondary impacts become clearer. Positives 1. GCC competitiveness in the US (and elsewhere) ...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

Mar 19 Energy Ministry: Mr Akkezhenov (formerly Deputy Minister) has been appointed as the new Minister of Energy. National nuclear company: In 2024, Kazatomprom’s net profit increased by 38%. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan held talks with French EDF. These negotiations are part of the process of ch...

Mexico Macro Monitor: General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy for 2026
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

“General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy”: High optimism regarding growth, inflation, and public deficit for 2025; relative pessimism in the oil market. The Mexican Ministry of Finance (SHCP) presented the so-called “General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy (PCGPE in Spanish)”, which include...

Pachakutik support for Gonzalez
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

As a follow up to my webinar of last Monday, I wanted to present our perspective on how Pachakutik could vote on April 13. By the end of Sunday, March 30th, Pachakutik decided to officially support Luisa Gonzalez. Leonidas Iza conditioned this support to the following points: no oil neither minin...

Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs impacting Brazilian exports, opposition in the House threatens to obstruct the trade bill until the amnesty bill is addressed, and tax reform advances
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2025

The whole world is waiting for Donald Trump's announcement on reciprocal tariffs. The day is being called the "Day of Liberation," with tariffs of 25% on all imported cars and "reciprocal" tariffs country by country—which could affect Brazilian products exported to the U.S. such as ethanol. Yeste...

Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity recorded zero annual growth in January
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

The Global Indicator of Economic Activity recorded zero annual growth in January and a -0.2% monthly decline with seasonally adjusted figures The Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) showed no annual growth in January 2025, following declines in October and December of the previous year a...

Central Bank maintains monetary policy rate unchanged
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

For the fourth consecutive month, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) will keep the monetary policy rate unchanged as of January 2025. In April 2025, the policy rate will remain at 5.75% per year. Similarly, the interest rate on the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repo...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February the fiscal deficit dropped sharply, however it is unlikely the annual target will be met
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

By February 2025, public finances strengthened. Total revenues rose by 4.8% in real annual terms (driven by a 10.1% increase in tax revenues), while spending saw an exceptional decline of 17%. This sharply reduced the fiscal deficit, measured by the broad Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (PSB...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Banxico prioritizes support for economic slowdown vs. controlling inflation
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

Banxico (Mexico's Central Bank) decided to lower its target interest rate to 9%. This confirms that the central concern of the Governing Board is that the ex-ante real interest rate remains too high, and it appears to prioritize economic recovery over inflation control—the latter being its primar...

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