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The consequences of the Federal Supreme Court’s First Chamber’s decision to make Bolsonaro a defendant
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The First Chamber of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) has accepted the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) complaint against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and allies for allegedly attempting a coup d'état in 2022. From now on, they become defendants, which generates repercussions in the legal...

Updated excel sheet on CBRT reserve data
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2025 · 1 response

We have received some requests from our audience to have an updated version of the excel file that had been attached to our semi-technical note (from earlier this month). Updated excel sheet is here, the technical note that we hyperlinked to yesterday's brief is here (for your convenience), and t...

STF rejects defense motions and begins voting on Bolsonaro coup attempt case, Bolsonaro calls for April rally in São Paulo after Rio turnout falls short, and Federal Revenue estimates minimal impact of income tax reform on states and municipalities
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) is continuing the trial on the complaint filed by the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) against former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven others accused of attempting a coup d’état following the 2022 elections. Yesterday, former President Ja...

An Indian view on "Liberation Day"
INDIA · Report · 26 Mar 2025

"Liberation Day", April 2, the day when US President Trump is set to unveil his Tariff Plan, is drawing nearer, and not much is known about what will happen. The scenario for India is likely to involve some tariff cuts, some degradation of market access into the US, and some harm to India’s WTO ...

The ceasefire illusion: fake it 'til you make it
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The new U.S. administration is clearly aiming to disengage from Ukraine, and to restore ties with Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to shift the blame for a potentially failed peace deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as the public witnessed during the February 28th Oval ...

CBRT reserve update
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025 · 1 response

There is a lot of interest in CBRT reserve numbers these days for obvious reasons, so we thought it might be useful to send our latest estimates. In the three days from March 19 through 21, we estimate that the cumulative decline in net and gross reserves amounted to $26.6 billion and $19.2 billi...

Today's Monetary Council went just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

The MNB base rate was left at 6.5% and the interest rate corridor remained at 5.5% to 7.5%. At the press conference held after the meeting by Mr. Varga, the new governor, it has been stressed that the base rate may be left unchanged for a longer period, without any specification on how long that ...

The government considers bringing forward the 13th salary to regain popularity, the STF to deliberate on accepting charges against Bolsonaro for an alleged coup plot, INSS payroll loan rates are under review
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The economic team is evaluating the possibility of advancing the payment of the 13th salary for retirees and pensioners in 2025. The request was made by the Ministry of Social Security, Carlos Lupi (PDT). Today, the First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) will begin deliberations on whethe...

Economics: The US 25% tariff affects a high percentage of Mexican non-USMCA products; the threat of reciprocal tariffs heightens uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2025

Tariff threats against Mexico have focused on demanding measures to prevent migration and fentanyl trafficking. However, it is very likely that issues directly related to foreign trade, attracting production chains to the US and a strategy to reduce the presence of Chinese products in the joint U...

Letters from the Insane Asylum
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

Former president Suleiman Demirel once remarked “24 hours is a very long time in Turkish politics”, which wisely describes the bind the nation finds itself in. The rival camps are moving their pieces at dizzying speed like in a Blitz chess game. Since our last writing on Sunday night, there is a ...

Politics: Sheinbaum proclaims missing persons a national priority. Can she deliver on her pledge to tackle the issue?
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2025

The issue of missing and forcibly disappeared persons in Mexico has mushroomed into a major political and social controversy that has captivated public opinion and put the Claudia Sheinbaum administration on the defensive. The catalyst was the discovery of what has been called an extermination ca...

The political impact of the income tax exemption and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025

President Lula visits Japan and Vietnam throughout the week. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will decide whether to accept the charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro and other defendants accused of attempting a coup d'état. The 2025 Budget may be sent for presidential sanction. This w...

Global uncertainty and local risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025

Uncertainty is the key term when it comes to the economic outlook. While there are still significant domestic challenges, the biggest concerns stem from the global scenario, reflecting the radical shift in U.S. policy with the beginning of Trump’s second administration. Although changes in tra...

Reality bites
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Mar 2025

A series of unfortunate events descended upon Argentina in the last four weeks that disrupted the fragile Pax Financiera the country had enjoyed since August of last year. Trumpian economics or, more accurately, the global uncertainties created by it, was the first mishap. Here, the concern is ho...

Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues grow YoY but not enough, prompting tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Mar 2025

We recently mentioned that the republican budget accumulated about 15.1% of annually planned tax revenues in 2M25, which looks like an improvement compared with January, when the authorities collected only 5.1% of the annual plan. However, things still don’t look very reassuring as some taxes are...

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