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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political scene remains uncertain; El Niño introduces downside risk; we retain our call for an August rate cut
PERU · Report · 11 Jul 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we focus on three main topics. First, we discuss the expected busy political calendar for July. On July 19th, left-wing organizations and parties are planning a march into Lima, similar that of January 28th. On July 26th, Congress will elect its new president and board. And on Jul...

Armenia: Net remittances grind to a halt in May
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Jul 2023

Net monetary inflows from abroad fell significantly in May.  Net inflows tripled to around US$300mn per month last year as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, but Jan to May data so far in the year is already indicating a return to pre-2022 levels (Graph 1). A breakdown of the inflows is showing ...

Centrão parties want more space in the government, Haddad will meet with Pacheco to discuss Tax Reform, and the CPMI on the January 8 attacks will hear from Mauro Cid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2023

The pressure from the Centrão parties for more space in the government has increased. The change of command at the Ministry of Tourism is certain. Other positions are also being targeted, such as the Ministry of Social Development, the Ministry of Sports, and the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, a...

Politics: De facto presidential candidate selection process advances, race tightens up
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023

Now that the opposition coalition and civil society groups worked out the basic rules for the process of choosing their future presidential nominee over recent weeks and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez jumped into the race, the Broad Opposition Front has begun to gain the sort of traction that eluded it f...

Economics: FDI sustains positive trajectory but the country is failing to fully reap the benefits of nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has performed favorably during the current administration, and its potential can increase if appropriate measures are taken to attract nearshoring investment. It is important to consider, however, that although the nearshoring phenomenon has been recurrently mentio...

Rates on pause, further tightening will depend on the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jul 2023

Rates on pause, further tightening will depend on the shekel The Bank of Israel decided to maintain policy rates stable at 4.75%, stressing that present rates are already restrictive enough. The decision was supported by the lower-than-expected CPI in May and resulting deceleration of inflation (...

The next steps for Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023

This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess. Few relevant topics are on the agenda. The Tax Reform proposal should be sent to the Senate this week, as well as the CARF bill. Senators are waiting for a new decree from President Lula on the sanitation framework. This week's T...

Global Inflation and Slower Growth: Consequences For Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023

The pandemic was an unprecedented event that triggered a wave of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, together leading to an outbreak of inflation around the world. The United States and the Euro Zone, which together account for almost 40% of global GDP, established fiscal stimulus actions that...

This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess, a session of Congress was scheduled to vote on presidential vetoes, and President Lula will travel to Brussels on Saturday to attend a meeting between the CELAC and the EU
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2023

This is the last week of activity in the National Congress before the recess. Since the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) was not put to a vote, members of Congress will have an informal recess. A session of Congress is scheduled for Wednesday, July 12, to analyze presidential vetoes. An agreement betw...

Difficulties after restoring pre-pandemic conditions
INDIA · Report · 10 Jul 2023

We are now able to assemble a picture of the post-pandemic recovery based on four business cycle indicators: listed company net sales, listed company operating profit, exports and bank credit. At first, there was a powerful post-pandemic recovery, but after February/March 2022, there has been a s...

We are leaning towards a rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jul 2023

1. We see a 60% probability of a rate hike today. Sticky service price inflation, a tight labor market, wage pressure, a weaker shekel and fairly steady growth will support further tightening. 2. Politics continue to impact markets, as the coalition presses forwards with cancelling the “reas...

China and the Wagner coup
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jul 2023

The Wagner coup in Russia was an awkward, embarrassing, and potentially destabilizing moment for China. China’s quiet support for Russia—while adhering to the letter of U.S. sanctions—was a balancing act that has thus far played in China’s favor. As Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment note...

Uzbek President re-elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2023

On July 9 an election took place, and the result came on July 10. As expected, Shavkat Mirziyoyev was decisively re-elected. He will begin his third term. He took office in 2016. His term will last 7 years and he will be allowed to seek another one in 2030. Turnout was said by the election commis...

Watching Vilnius, reserves and the budget
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jul 2023

The politics author returns to work by discussing the potential electoral impact of the huge tax hikes at first. These will be highly painful to AKP voters in large urban centers, he thinks, but President Erdogan has other ways to engineer a victory at the March 2024 local elections. While it ...

Rate hike likely on Monday
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jul 2023

We see a 60% probability of a 0.25% rate hike on Monday to 5.0%. What supports further tightening? Inflation remains sticky and accelerating in the service sectors. Granted, core inflation did slow to 4.9% y/y in May from 5.3% in April, but this was due to a sharp deceleration of core goods to 1....

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