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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

On June inflation and a few other things
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 3.9%, m/m, in June, with the 12- rate thus easing to 38.2%, from 39.6% in May, largely owing to – once again -- last year’s elevated base. Producer prices, reflecting a quicker pass-through from TL weakness, rose by a more visible 6.5%, m/m, ...

The House should vote on the CARF bill, if the Tax Reform proposal is not voted on this week it should be put to a vote in August, and the Senate is expected to vote on the legal framework for sanitation today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2023

The House postponed the vote on the economic agenda, the bill that deals with the tie-breaking vote of the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF), and the new fiscal framework to today. Regarding the CARF, the tie-breaking vote issue remains unresolved. Since the CARF bill has a constitutio...

Politics: Opposition coalition commits to presidential pre-nomination process, Xóchitl candidacy the big surprise
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jul 2023

Following months of wrangling between the three opposition coalition parties and civil society organizations and activists, both sides settled on the basic approach for choosing the person who will eventually be their 2024 presidential candidate. The rules, which offer a hybrid approach combining...

June inflation eases
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jul 2023

Highlights from today’s inflation report are as follows: The headline inflation rate continued to trend down to 5.4% in June from 6.1% the previous month and a high of 8.7% in January. Compared with the February to May months when month-on-month inflation rates were at zero or negative, June mont...

Signs of increasing wage pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jul 2023

Wage growth appears to be accelerating. Average wages in May were 5.4% above that one year ago, accelerating from 5.1% y/y in April (according to initial data from the CBS). Detailed wage data exists only for April and points to rapid wage growth in manufacturing (6.4% y/y), retail (6.6%) and foo...

Drone attacks on Moscow Airport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2023

On July 4, 5 drones near Moscow Vnukovo Airport forced it to close for a few hours in the morning. There were no casualties. Ukraine unusually commented on the reports and hinted that it had sent the drones. This is worrying for Russia. This war was supposed to make Russia safer.  On July 4 Russi...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

The ineligibility of Bolsonaro can soften the current political polarization if the other side of the political spectrum adopts a constructive stance. Much is in play in Congress, which has two weeks to reach decisions on important themes like the fiscal framework, tax reform and CARF rules, amon...

Wagner recruitment suspended
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2023

The Russian private military company has been a vital component of the war effort in Ukraine. At one stage it had 50,000 fighters. Wagner announced the suspension of recruitment on its Telegram page. Private companies were required to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by July 2. Wagner ...

The government without Bolsonaro and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

There will be a full agenda in the House this week. The agenda includes the bill on the CARF, the new fiscal framework, and Tax Reform. The Senate will hold confirmation hearings for Gabriel Galípolo and Ailton Aquino, for the Monetary Policy and Supervision directorates of the Central Bank, resp...

Economics: Data in June shows internal market as main growth catalyst, with inflation and exports subsiding
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jul 2023

As the internal market has emerged as the economy’s main growth driver, last week saw the release of Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for April showing that economic activity has sustained a steady pace so far this year, growing a seasonally adjusted 3.3% during the month, in line with its avera...

Inflation slows further in June, NBK rate cut is on the agenda
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation slowed in June to 0.5% m-o-m and 14.6% y-o-y. Food inflation fell to 15.8% y-o-y. Inflation is decelerating faster than expected, which is a good sign as it opens up an opportunity for the National Bank of Kazakhstan to cut its base rate. ...

The House will focus on three matters this week, the Senate may hold confirmation hearings on the appointees to the Central Bank, and the CPMI on the January 8 attacks will hear from Bolsonaro’s former assistant
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

The agenda in the House is full. The three main matters are the bill that deals with the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF), the fiscal framework, and Tax Reform. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) should approve on Tuesday the two appointees to...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2023

* Wagner Group seized Rostov but agreed not to march on Moscow as charges against Prigozhin were dropped. * The Ukrainian counter-offensive has made minor progress. * African peace envoys visited Kyiv and Moscow but did not bring peace. * Ukraine and Russia continue to bombard each o...

Steady economic growth and a weaker shekel will support tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jul 2023

1. Private consumption picked up modestly in March-May on employment growth and the public sector wage bonus. 2. The shekel continued to weaken last week as the coalition plans on pushing forward with part of the judicial overhaul. 3. Steady growth and a weaker shekel will support a rate h...

Growth exceeded our previous forecast for 2023, but in 2024 it will slow, regaining traction in 2025. Fiscal figures will be favored by Minera Panama's new royalties. Ricardo Martinelli's trial faces a verdict in early July
PANAMA · Forecast · 03 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Growth in the first quarter of 2023 exceeded expectations, much like analysts' forecasts for the global economy. According to our estimates, Q1 GDP may have grown between 9-10%, similar to the year-over-year increase of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE) through February. The resilience s...

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