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Tales on a summit
TURKEY · Report · 28 Sep 2025

Amidst much hype and misinformation, Messrs. Erdogan and Trump finally met. The summit was significant, because the respective teams spent 2 hours and 20 minutes behind closed doors. The politics author concludes in his single essay for the week that the outcome was largely favorable, although co...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi bonds, Riyadh rents frozen, Qatar & Oman GDP, UK & France recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Sep 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Brent rebounded to $70 on concerns about Russian exports, amidst Ukrainian drone strikes. *Gulf leaders addressed the UN and discussed a new US Gaza plan with Trump. *Ten more countries, including the UK and France, recogn...

Tarcísio said he will run for re-election as Governor of São Paulo, Justice Fachin will replace Justice Barroso as the new Chief Justice of the STF, and the House may vote on the income tax exemption bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2025

In recent days, conflicting reports have circulated regarding the political future of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos–SP) in 2026. Just yesterday, however, Tarcísio reaffirmed that he will seek re-election in 2026. During an official event, he denied having received Bolsonaro’s blessin...

Webinar replay and slide presentation: Can Mexico maintain macroeconomic stability in 2026?
MEXICO · Presentation · 26 Sep 2025

How realistic is the government's fiscal plan for next year? Will Pemex no longer be a burden for the federal government with its new strategic plan? Could the Banxico dove turn into a hawk? Can free trade and investment between Mexico and the US flourish once the new tariff policy is completed? ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currency appreciation has come to an end
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Sep 2025

In mid-June I asked how long the CCA currency strength (vs the US$) would continue. My key thesis was that, beyond the myriad relevant macro stats, this would critically depend on the RUB. In short, I argued that the ongoing strengthening of local currencies vs the US$ would only have legs until ...

Mixed results in GDP growth and IMAE. The ACP and Mulino could learn how to generate a positive climate for the new Canal projects from the previous Canal expansion.
PANAMA · Report · 26 Sep 2025

Panama’s economy slowed in Q2 2025, with GDP growth decelerating to 3.4% year on year from 5.2% in Q1. The main drag on growth came from the transportation sector, particularly the Panama Canal, where growth dropped sharply as the inter-annual boost from improved water levels faded and the ongoin...

New inflation report does not point to a lower MNB base rate in the foreseeable future
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2025

The monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held three days ago, and the Q3 inflation report was published yesterday. At the meeting, no rate or other policy action was taken, and the existing "careful and patien" policy approach, together with the Council's hawkish forward guida...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025

The fixed income market reacted negatively to CBR officials' comments following the decision to lower the key rate from 18% to 17% on September 12. Monetary authorities have highlighted fiscal policy risks and indicated a more cautious stance on further rate cuts. Consequently, long-term OFZ yiel...

Industry’s performance remains unimpressive in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025

Although Rosstat reported a seasonally adjusted output increase of 0.7% m-o-m in August, this figure seems weak considering the contractions of 1.6% in June and 0.6% in July. For 8M25 and August alone, industry grew by 0.8% and 0.5% y-o-y, pointing to an overall growth of around 0.0% to 0.5% for ...

Economic stagnation meets polarized elections
CHILE · Report · 25 Sep 2025

Since February 2023, the Chilean economy has grown at an average rate of about 2.5%. The path, however, has been marred by sharp swings. July’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) rose 1% m/m (sa) and 1.8% y/y, recovering part of June’s drop. Health services led July’s rebound. This is mo...

The Senate CCJ unanimously struck down the Privileges PEC, the rapporteur on MP 1303 presented his report on the measure, and the vote on the income tax exemption bill is scheduled for next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2025

After strong political and popular backlash against the “Privileges Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC),” the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) unanimously approved Senator Alessandro Vieira’s (MDB-SE) report deeming the measure unconstitutional. Congressman Carlos Zarattini (...

Market calm returns to Argentina after President Trump and US Secretary Bessent pledge strong support
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Last week, Argentina’s economy faced intense pressure as the nominal exchange rate hit the ceiling of its exchange band and country risk surged to 1,450 basis points. Yet, the government, led by President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis "Toto" Caputo, pulled off two bold moves that swiftly...

Trump said he should meet with Lula next week, the submission of the report on the Amnesty Bill was postponed, and the Senate may vote on the bill that establishes the Management Committee for the IBS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2025

During a UN meeting yesterday, President Donald Trump said he had a brief conversation with President Lula and that the two will hold a meeting next week. In an interview with CNN, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira stated that the conversation is expected to take place by phone or videoconference. On...

Headwinds to imports of Russian oil are intensifying
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Following the obvious failure of his Alaska initiative, President Trump has decided to move to Ukraine's side most recently. On different occasions and through various means, including his own social media platform, his energy minister, and also talking at a press conference at the UN general ass...

Next Stop: Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Early yesterday, an Ankara prosecutor ordered the arrest of 13 employees of the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality and independent contractors on charges of “overspending” ca. TL 150 mn ($4-5 mn depending on the exchange rates prevailing at the date of events). These accusations had been headlined ...

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