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Boluarte attempts to boost approval ratings; post-election risk falls, but near-term election risk will impact economy; local market rally weakens
PERU · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

We cover three topics in this September forecast report. First, in politics, having adjusted our forecast in August, we now believe with 80% probability that President Dina Boluarte will complete her current term, scheduled to end in July 2026. We examine how Boluarte has attempted to boost her p...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth backed by rapidly expanding domestic credit to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

According to the Ministry of National Economy’s flash estimate, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in 8M25. Earlier, the Ministry estimated economic growth in 7M25 at 6.3%. Prior to that, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 5.6% and 6.2% y-o-y in 1Q25 and 1H25, respective...

The Lower House president will meet with party leaders to discuss this week’s agenda, the opposition continues to push for the amnesty bill, and the rapporteur of the measure on taxing betting should present his report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), will meet with party leaders to discuss this week’s agenda. Two topics are expected to draw the most attention: the income tax exemption and the amnesty proposal. On the amnesty issue, the opposition continues to push for a broad tex...

A window of opportunity in the legislative agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025

President Lula is on his first trip to the United States since Donald Trump was elected president. The U.S. has pledged to announce new sanctions against Brazil. Party leaders continue negotiating a text to grant amnesty to those accused and convicted of attempting a coup d’état. The government i...

Politics: The 2026 Budget Proposal advances but is too subordinated to political considerations
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025

In the 2026 Budget Proposal (PPEF), total net public expenditure for the fiscal year is projected to increase a real 5.9%. Despite the declared need to reduce the fiscal deficit, social spending in politically oriented programs will receive a massive injection of resourses. This reflects the gove...

Should I stay or should I go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Imbalances continue to accumulate. After some improvement in the performance of public accounts in the first half of the year, largely due to the change in the disbursement date of certain expenditures, notably those related to court-ordered payments, the primary deficit is rising again. It is ex...

Lula traveled to the U.S. yesterday, the rapporteur of the bill on income tax exemptions should present his report tomorrow, and the Lower House is expected to vote on the amnesty bill in the coming days
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025

President Lula traveled to the United States yesterday. This is his first trip to the U.S. since Donald Trump was elected president. However, no meeting between Lula and Trump is expected. Congressman Arthur Lira (PP-AL), rapporteur of the bill granting an income tax exemption for those earning ...

Higher public investment and deficit driving 2025 growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Sep 2025

The Dominican economy grew by just 2.4% in H1 2025, half of its potential. To stimulate activity, the government approved a budget amendment that raises capital spending by 0.4% of GDP, increasing the overall deficit by the same amount. With the same objective, the Central Bank has continued the ...

Economics: Public investment outlook for 2026
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025

The 2026 Expenditure Budget Proposal (PPEF) anticipates a slight recovery in public investment following a deep contraction in 2025. Physical investment could increase by nearly 10% in real terms (from 888.9 billion to 975.5 billion pesos, ((US$48.30 billion to US$53 billion)), while investment i...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 22, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Sep 2025

Last week was dominated by geopolitics, as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Super Sparta” speech raised fears of economic fallout and deepened Israel’s diplomatic isolation. Markets reacted negatively, while the failed strike on Hamas leaders in Doha further strained ties with Arab states. We outlined...

Mr. Erdogan goes to Washington
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2025

Erdogan added another one to Turkey’s recent gains in foreign policy by scoring an invitation from Trump to the White House on the 25th of September. Trump may visit Turkey in October too. The politics author anticipates a lucrative meeting for the US, and a productive one for Turkey. Gaza and Is...

The president of the União Brasil was accused of owning jets involved in organized crime, the rapporteur of the Amnesty Bill will begin negotiations on the matter next week, and Lula has scheduled a trip to the U.S.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2025

The relationship between the government and União Brasil party has once again become tense. The party’s president, Antonio Rueda, was accused of being the hidden owner of executive jets used to transport members of organized crime. Next week promises to be busy. The rapporteur of the Amnesty Bill...

GULF WEEKLY: All mirror Fed cuts, Saudi revises inflation basket, Kuwait's population declines
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Sep 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks all mirrored the US’s -25bp interest rate cut. * The IEA warned that annual field decline is higher than previously estimated, about -5.5m b/d. * Saudi Arabia revised its inflation basket, lifting the w...

Tax collection gradually improves but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Sep 2025

The Ministry of Finance released 8M25 budget execution data for all levels of the nation’s budget system, including republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and extra-budgetary funds, which are now part of the consolidated budget statistics. Although tax collection showed some improvement...

Webinar replay - Turkey politics: CHP vs. Goliath
TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2025

As the Erdogan-controlled legal system aims to divide and paralyze CHP with lawsuits, what countermeasures is the party's chairman Ozel taking? Can the CHP continue as a functioning political party in the face of these attacks and the pending indictments of arrested CHP mayors? With the Peace Com...

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