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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Dec 9 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 17
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Central America databank Nov 26
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Chile databank Nov 28
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Dec 3
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 21
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Ecuador databank Nov 20
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Gulf Countries databank Dec 5
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Hungary databank Nov 24
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Dec 10
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Nov 4
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Nov 14
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South Africa databank Dec 9
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Dec 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Fast-track executive action
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Sep 2025
President Daniel Noboa cannot be accused of procrastination in the past three months. Since he assumed office last May, he has sent three symbolic bills with the character of economic urgency for approval by the legislature: the National Solidarity Bill, the Intelligence Bill and the Public Integ...
Economics: A first glance at the 2026 Economic Package sent to Congress on September 8
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2025 · 1 response
On Monday, September 8, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) sent the 2026 Economic Package to Congress. It includes the government’s forecasts for the country’s macroeconomic outlook, as well as proposals of revenue, expenditures, and the public sector fiscal deficit, which includes ...
Kazakhstan macro: looking for 2026 budget challenges
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 15 Sep 2025
Despite the nation’s budget performance appearing stable in 7M27, with high inflation and a weaker tenge boosting revenues tied to the exchange rate, some questions remain about the 2025 and 2026 budgets. The republican budget saw its total revenue grow by 12.4% in 7M26, with tax revenue increasi...
The opposition continues to push for an amnesty bill for Bolsonaro, the government is prioritizing the income tax exemption bill, and the House may vote on the Social Electricity Tariff measure for low-income households
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2025
Following the conviction by the First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état, the opposition is pushing for consideration of a bill granting amnesty to all those accused. The government’s coal...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 15, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Sep 2025
The focal point last week was Israel’s unprecedented strike in Doha against the Hamas leadership. From Israel’s perspective, the operation fell short of its objective, as senior Hamas figures were apparently not present in the targeted building. The move drew criticism abroad, including from Wash...
Prime Minister Holness wins first third term for a JLP government in a close election
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 15 Sep 2025
In a hard-fought, close election, Prime Minister (PM) Andrew Holness was re-elected for the first third term for a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) government, and now equals former Peoples National Party (PNP) PM PJ Patterson in having been elected three times (Jamaica does not have term limits). The ...
CHP convention hearing postponed to 24 October
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025
Contrary to majority expectations, the Ankara court trying allegations that CHP Grand Convention, when Ozgur Ozel dethroned Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was rigged, postponed its hearing to 24 October. It is not certain that the bench will reach a verdict, than, either. As I write these lines at 2 PM Ista...
Q2 current account surplus narrows; Israelis invest more abroad, while foreign inflows remain resilient
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025
Yesterday we got some surprisingly weak data from Israel’s current account. The surplus narrowed dramatically to just $0.6 billion in Q2 2025, down from $5.4 billion in Q1. This is the lowest surplus recorded since Q4 2012, signaling a worrying trend for the Israeli economy. The trade deficit wid...
August CPI preview: high monthly inflation of 0.6% is expected, but yearly inflation to fall below the upper bound of the target
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2025
On Monday ((tomorrow), Israel will release the August CPI print, which we will be watching closely. We expect a 0.6% monthly increase, which would bring annual inflation down to around 2.8%, below the Bank of Israel’s 3% upper target range for the first time since September 2024. August has histo...
Lower rates, higher political tensions
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2025
There are more than 50% odds that on Monday an Ankara court will declare the Grand Convention of CHP, where Ozel toppled Kemal Kilicdaroglu, null and void, reinstating the latter as trustee chairman. The first essay explains why: Kilicdaroglu’s views are very convenient for Erdogan, who shows no ...
Mixed messages from the IMF Article IV. The copper mine at Donoso faces an uncertain road ahead. Moody's credit review in November will determine the investment grade status of the sovereign rating.
PANAMA · Report · 12 Sep 2025
The IMF's latest Article IV report shows that Panama’s economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Growth is projected around 4%, potentially reaching 5% if large infrastructure projects move forward. A key IMF warning is the need to increase foreign direct investment and external financing t...
GULF WEEKLY: Allies rally around Qatar, OPEC+ hikes production, UAE posts H1 fiscal surplus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Sep 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose despite the decision by OPEC+ to begin tapering the May 2023 voluntary cuts. * Revised compensation plans from Kazakhstan postpone its cuts for overproduction until 2026. * An IMF study found that FDI in the GCC ...
The STF convicted Bolsonaro to 27 years of prison, his allies in Congress are pushing for the amnesty bill to be put to a vote, and Motta wants to vote on the income tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2025
The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) concluded its trial on Thursday (September 11) and sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to 27 years and 3 months in the case involving the coup plot. Allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro plan to push for an amnesty bill. São Paulo ...
Government defeat in Buenos Aires Province: Political and economic implications
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Sep 2025
The ruling coalition suffered a 13-point loss in Buenos Aires Province, a stronghold of Peronism. The markets reacted sharply: equities fell up to 25%, bonds weakened, and country risk surpassed 1,000 basis points. Inflation stabilization has come at the cost of recessionary pressures, weak reser...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's fast growing population—a blessing or a curse?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Sep 2025
About two years ago, spurred by William MacAskill’s “What We Owe The Future”, a book that focuses on long-termism and effective altruism, I tried to explore what the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time might mean for the Caucasus and Central A...