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Feb CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps cutting rates, Georgia's GDP growth has a very strong start to the year, Uzbekistan issues Eurobonds for US$1.5bn, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan settle multi-year border dispute
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Feb 2025

The Feb CCA highlights key macro-political events in the region: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% in 2024 Armenia: CPI rises by 1.7% y/y in Jan Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 7.1% YoY in Jan Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 6.75% Armenia: FX reserves fall to ...

Lula gave an optimistic speech about the economy, VP Alckmin will meet with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs, and Padilha will replace Trindade at the Ministry of Health next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2025

During an event in Santos, alongside São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), Lula delivered an optimistic speech about the economy. He stated that Brazil will grow 3.8% in 2024 and slightly over 2.5% in 2025, contradicting what he believes are the pessimistic forecasts of some econ...

Strong growth with (re-)rebalancing…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2025

The Turkish economy expanded at a sequential pace of 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of the year, broadly in line with forecasts, after slight contractions in the previous two quarters (in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms). Activity expanded by 3%, y/y, in Q4, with GDP thus growing by 3.2%...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch negative outlook on Bahrain, Saudi issues bonds, Gaza's ceasefire deadline looms
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil dipped to $72, the lowest this year, on weak economic data. * The US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s exports and ended a waiver for Chevron in Venezuela. * Moody’s added a positive outlook for Oman’s banking but...

So far, so good
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Feb 2025

In the midst of a deteriorating perception of Indonesia's economy, the country posted an encouraging Q4 2024 GDP growth result, at 5.02% Y/Y. This was higher than the 4.95% annual growth for the previous quarter. On a Q/Q basis, the Indonesian economy expanded by 0.53%, which followed the regular...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

The Russian market moved up on the wave of optimism regarding the potential resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Many investors think it may happen in the coming months, and some sanctions on Russia could be removed in the aftermath. Moreover, this factor is treated as disinflationary, which ma...

More news on fiscal policy, more bad than good, today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

On the same day that Cabinet Minister Guyás told the press that the government remains committed to meet this year's 3.7% of GDP fiscal deficit target (after the preliminary actual 4.8% deficit ratio in 2024, both figures referring to general government by Eurostat methodology), the economy minis...

The government will meet with food sector representatives to discuss food prices, rumors in Brasilia suggest Haddad could be replaced, and Lula said he has chosen a replacement for Minister Padilha
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2025

In an effort to accelerate a decline in food prices, the government is expected to meet again with the supermarket and food sector to discuss the issue. Chief of Staff Rui Costa (PT) stated that discussions are underway for the meeting to take place next week. Yesterday, rumors emerged about a p...

Russian industry decelerates sharply in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2025

Rosstat reported that the industrial output was up by 2.2% y-o-y in January, which appeared unexpected as it was up by 8.2% y-o-y in December. Seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial output contracted by 3.2% m-o-m. It might be too early to say that growth trends changed abruptly last month, ...

Volatile times bringing surprising favor to the region
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2025

Costa Rica dealt with an array of factors that slowed economic activity in 2024. However, real GDP growth outperformed our forecast, although growth was lower than in 2023. Domestic and external exogenous elements influenced the economic deceleration, such as a restrictive monetary policy stance ...

Business sector indicators for January signal a return to pre-war levels
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Feb 2025

The Bank of Israel's Composite State-of-the-Economy Index increased by 0.6% in January, following an upward revision of December's data to 0.9% (compared to the previous estimate of 0.7%) and a revision of November's data to 0.3%. This rise in the index reflects a 0.9% increase in business sector...

Another poll confirms Lula’s decline in popularity, the Minister of Health will be replaced, and the Ministry of Labor announced a provisional measure on accessing FGTS funds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

Another public opinion poll released yesterday confirmed the decline in President Lula’s popularity. According to CNT/MDA, disapproval of the government has reached its worst level since January 2023. Yesterday, the dismissal of Health Minister Nísia Trindade was confirmed. She will be replaced b...

No surprise from the last Monetary Council rate-setting meeting chaired by outgoing governor Matolcsy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2025

As governor Matolcsy is set to leave the MNB on March 3, today's was the last regular monthly rate-setting meeting chaired by him in the Monetary Council. There was absolutely no surprise caused by the Council on this occasion: the base rate was kept at 6.5%, the interest rate corridor at 5.5-7.5...

Lula announced more payments from the Pé de Meia educational program, he will meet with the Minister of Labor to discuss the FGTS payments, and the Federal Budget should be put to a vote on March 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula delivered a nationwide address on radio and TV to announce two measures. The first is that today, a payment of R$ 1,000 from the Pé de Meia program will be made. This is a financial-educational incentive program aimed at students enrolled in public high schools. Today, L...

Trump’s quick fixes hit a wall
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump appears disappointed and irritated that his fast-track approach to brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has stalled from the start. It’s evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a strategic plan for countering Russian aggression. Instead, the strategy seems to i...

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