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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Kazakhstan macro: inflation to remain elevated in 2023, leaving limited room for base rate cuts
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s National Bank recently released its updated macroeconomic forecast and it expects the country’s economy can expand within the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2023. The regulator expects the same rates for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, quoting it as an equilibrium growth trajectory for Kazakhsta...

External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive 
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Mar 2023

1. External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive as the goods/services surplus continues to decline. 2. The shekel will continue to react more to global equity movements and the domestic uncertainty regarding the judicial measures. 3. Tax revenues continue to decline and are likely to...

Haddad will submit the bill that deals with the new fiscal framework, the PDT, PSB and Solidariedade discuss forming a party federation, and the CAE will review a request to summon Roberto Campos Neto
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2023

In an interview with CNN Brasil, Haddad said that the new fiscal framework will be a combination of mechanisms to monitor public accounts. According to him, the new rule will not be based on public debt. The PDT, PSB and Solidariedade leaders will meet on Tuesday, March 14, to discuss the formati...

SVB and Asian banks
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Generally, contagion risk from the Silicon Valley Bank situation is minimal—apart from the issue of “animal spirits…” What are the risks that could affect Asian banks? * Excessive concentration of digital assets in the banking system. However, most digital start-ups obtain funding from ventu...

Israeli savings institutions shift more investments abroad
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Mar 2023

In January, Israeli savings institutions were net FX purchasers of 4.5bn USD, buying assets abroad totally 3.8bn and reducing their FX hedge by 0.7bn. Their FX exposure increased to 18% of all assets under management from 16.5%. This is a significant jump to a level not witnessed in the past two ...

Kilicdaroglu has wind in wings
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Your beloved Politics Author a.k.a. Atilla Yesilada is still convalescing from gastric surgery, which is the reason for his absence from our Weekly Report. Since my work hours are still quite restricted, I shall instead analyze the developments after Kilicdaroglu’s nomination briefly, inviting ou...

External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023

The goods/services surplus declined in Q422 Although the headline current surplus improved in Q422, the more important breakdown of good/services account reflect a declining surplus to 3.4bn USD in Q4 from 3.9bn in Q3. FDI into Israel surged in Q422 to 9.4bn USD compared to 6.8bn in Q3. 2023 will...

A dull and short weekly, for a change...
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2023

Our politics author, who is in convalescence but doing well, plans an update on the political scene in the next 24-48 hours. In his absence -- and with elections now almost certainly set for May 14, we report the latest state of affairs in the polls, no matter how rudimentary the polls might be. ...

Georgia drops controversial legislation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2023

On March 10 the foreign agent bill was defeated. The proposed legislation caused massive protests. It had been compared to Russian legislation that obliged those who receive foreign funding to comply with onerous registration regulations. The police had trouble containing protestors against the b...

Cabinet shuffle in Chile
CHILE · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023 · 1 response

If a week is a long time in politics, this one was endless, especially for president Gabriel Boric. On Wednesday the government’s tax reform was voted down in the House of Deputies. Although the government was quick to blame the opposition – and the opposition indeed opposed the reform as it was ...

Russian Macro: Consumer Lending Unlikely to Drive Growth in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Mar 2023

As Russia’s inflation peaked last year amid a sharp devaluation of the ruble, financial markets were shaken but not yet “stirred”. A combination of administrative measures, such as some form of capital controls combined with the key rate hike, helped the country’s financial markets to survive wit...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Iran ties restored, Qatar and Abu Dhabi reshuffle officials, Saudi Q4 GDP & fiscal data
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed in China to restore diplomatic relations after a 7 years hiatus. * Saudi GDP grew by 5.5% in Q4 and 8.7% in 2022 as a whole, close to the flash estimates. * Transport, finance and business ser...

Inflation falls below 11% in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation in February was at 0.46%, and it fell to 10.99% y-o-y. At the same time, Rosstat announced that in seven days ending on March 6, inflation was 0.0%, implying that YTD inflation remained the same, namely at 1.3%. As inflation was close to zero in the past thre...

Current account surplus narrows in February but still remains strong enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

The CBR reported that the current narrowed to $5.8bn last month, while in January it was at $7.1bn. Therefore, in 2M23, it reached $12.9bn and was well below $37.7 bn in 2M22. The balance of goods and services was at $15.3 bn, implying that the income balance, i.e., the difference between the cur...

Slide presentation: Panama - Economic outlook 2023: Real and fiscal issues
PANAMA · Report · 10 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Get insight into Panama's macro outlook with the slides from Marco Fernandez's presentation, "Panama - Economic outlook 2023: Real and fiscal issues".

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