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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The EU Commission is set to come forward with its proposal on the Hungarian rule-of-law procedure tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2022
The widespread current expectation is that the Commission will propose to freeze Hungary's access to 65% of its transfer (= development grant) quotas under three major cohesion policy programs of the EU's common budget for 2021-2027, in a total value of €7.5bn. This would be the same proposal as ...
The Transition PEC has been officially submitted, the Joint Budget Committee will hold a public hearing on the 2023 Federal Budget, and Lula decided to have Haddad look over the Transition Team’s working group on the economy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2022
According to the text of the PEC, the Auxílio Brasil would be removed from the spending ceiling for four years. The total value is around R$200 billion. By submitting the PEC, the elected government is handing Congress the responsibility of defining the text. It is very unlikely that the PEC will...
Politics: Major political reform may be off the table but AMLO sustains his assault on the INE
MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2022
It’s a foregone conclusion that President López Obrador will not succeed in passing his political reform constitutional amendments through Congress this year or any time before he leaves office. He has failed to line up enough votes, and if there was any doubt whether the PRI might once again sup...
Primaries, talks and Maduro’s diplomacy
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Nov 2022
Two events that have been on the radar for months finally happened. On November 26, the Maduro government and the opposition signed their first agreement in Mexico, and the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued license 41 expanding the scope of Chevron's operations in Ven...
Economics: Results in November may suggest the recovery is peaking as major risks loom
MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2022
Economic news published in November delivered numerous readings of economic activity in Mexico that proved to be much stronger than expected, beginning with a 4.3% yoy surge in third quarter GDP. While manufacturing continued to contribute significantly, thanks to the bounce seen in US GDP and in...
Kazakhstan and Russia affirm their friendship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2022
On November 28 Putin met the Kazakh President in Moscow. President Tokayev signed an agreement. Tokayev has just been re-elected to serve a 7 year term. He is constitutionally barred from seeking another term after this one. This is his first visit since the election and that in itself is telling...
The future governing coalition and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2022
This will be a decisive week for the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Lula is expected to start announcing the names of his ministerial team. On December 2, the Working Group created by Minister Gilmar Mendes to discuss the constitutionality of the ICMS reduction concludes its ...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2022
Four weeks after the runoff election, in the midst of serious uncertainties, some hints have emerged of what can be expected of the new government. An important one is that the PT has changed very little with the passage of time. Lula continues to centralize decisions in his hands, which deters t...
The Transition PEC must be put to a vote this week to be enacted by December 15, the Joint Budget Committee will hold a public hearing on the 2023 Federal Budget tomorrow, and the Transition Team will publish the first sectoral reports on November 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2022
The probability is for Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to be valid for less than four years and provide less than R$150 billion, as proposed by the PT. In Congress, the preference is for a value of up to R$100 billion for just one year. For the proposal to be enacted by Decembe...
Russia preparing bomb shelters
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2022
On November 26 Russian media reported that the government is inspecting bomb shelters. Bomb shelter signs are going up on streets particularly in the Belgorod Region, which borders Ukraine. In Rostov-on-Don, shelter signs have been erected. Civil defense is being put into a high state of readines...
Another spike in growth
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Nov 2022
The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q3 2022, growing by 5.72% Y/Y. This is significantly higher than the 5.44% achieved in the previous quarter. In fact, the rate of growth also exceeded the consensus. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy also expanded, ...
A dovish hike combined with hawkish talk
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Nov 2022
1. Despite the 0.5% dovish hike, messages from the BoI remain rather hawkish. 2. We currently expect two more hikes, to a terminal rate of 4.0% in February 2023. 3. The MoF does not appear concerned that the cancellation of non-tradeable bonds will put pressure on tradeable bonds.
A dovish hike combined with hawkish talk
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2022
Rates increased by 0.5% to 3.25% On Monday, the BoI hiked rates up by 0.5%, while market expectations were divided between 0.5% and 0.75%. The monetary statement retained the usual justification: Inflation is above target, economic activity is strong, and the labor market tight. On the other hand...
“Yağdır, Mevlam, Yağdır”*
TURKEY · Report · 27 Nov 2022 · 2 responses
To our surprise, Saudi Arabia and Qatar chose to bankroll President Erdogan’s election campaign with generous financial donations. In return, Erdogan promised to meet Assad and shook hands with Sisi. However, neither U-turn signals substantial policy change. Financial aid from Gulf countries poss...
Russian combat deaths proven to be 9,300+
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2022
On November 26 the BBC and a Russian media outlet Mediazone said they could name 9,300 Russian soldiers who have died in the Ukraine War. It is thought that the true number of war deaths could easily be double this. The report said that total casualties (dead, wounded, missing and captured) could...