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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s ongoing structural reforms provide some tailwinds to growth amid global uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Sep 2025

• South Africa’s growth: The domestic economy began the year on a subdued trajectory, with underlying structural constraints persisting alongside intensifying global headwinds, including rising protectionist measures. Progress in implementing government’s structural reform agenda, particularly ...

Economics: The data published in August reflects an economy that remains weak
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2025

Economic data published in August indicate that while the economy improved its performance in the second quarter and in July, it remains weak. Industrial activity continues to show a slight decline, and services, while experiencing relatively high growth, are seeing some sectors affected by lower...

The STF begins trial of Bolsonaro’s case, Lower House party leaders meet to vote on the week’s agenda, and the Senate may vote on two major bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025

Today, the Supreme Federal Court begins the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. This week, no justices are expected to cast their votes. In the Lower House, party leaders will meet to decide the week’s voting agenda. Lawmakers m...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

The Brazil Synthesis is a monthly overview of the Brazilian economy, with commentary and charts. The report begins with a timely topical overview, and charts provide a snapshot of the economy. Uncertainty is the name of the game Tarcísio strikes the right tone, the PCC suffers a setback: ...

Lula tests his electoral narrative and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état in 2022. President Lula launches the “People’s Gas” program, a reformulation of the “Gas for All” program. In the Lower House, the government pushes f...

Politics: Congress resumed on September 1, with no big surprises, as continuity is maintained with AMLO’s project
MEXICO · Report · 02 Sep 2025

The second year of the current congressional period of sessions began on September 1 with no big surprises. Morena legislators provided a sneak preview of its agenda. Apart from the 2026 economic package (revenue law and expenditure budget for 2026), there are no new significant issues on the go...

NBK holds the base rate; inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025

A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan kept the base rate unchanged, citing inflation remaining high in July (at 11.8%). The regulator acknowledged that inflationary pressure would remain elevated for the rest of the year and mentioned the possibility of future rate hikes. The NBK expect...

Not more of the same
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Trump is reshaping pressure on Venezuela under an anti-drug narrative, designating the "Cartel of the Suns" a terrorist organization and deploying naval forces to the Caribbean. The pressure on Maduro is evident, though the U.S. government is not speaking of regime change. The military deployment...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025

- Putin and Trump meet in Anchorage for a friendly but inconclusive summit. - Crises in Russian petroleum, agriculture and space industries; strikes on Russian refineries seek impact on population rather than armed forces. - Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan continue to crater. - Aze...

Higher than expected Q2 growth, fueled by stock changes
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Sep 2025

According to data announced by Turkstat, second quarter GDP growth markedly exceeded expectations, including of this author, in both sequential and annual terms, coming in at 1.6%, q/q, and 4.8%, y/y, respectively (Graph 1). As usual we briefly focus on the sequential data here, which reflects th...

An early and a brief start
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2025

We’ve decided to end the summer holiday of our Sunday Weekly earlier than planned, with a very brief update on the latest political and economic developments. Turkey experienced the hottest August in at least 30 years, which triggered crop failures, forest fires, and general lethargy among cit...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait capex cuts narrowed the deficit, UAE plans free trade partnership, UN sanctions on Iran to snap back
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Aug 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * European countries started the process of implementing “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran. * Saudi banks sold $2.25bn in 10-year Tier 2 bonds, one of them green. * Humain broke ground on its first data centers and launched a...

Lula said the income tax bill should be put to a vote next week, Tarcísio is gaining more momentum as a potential candidate for 2026, and the trial against Bolsonaro is scheduled to start on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2025

In an interview with Record, President Lula said that the vote on the Income Tax Bill will take place next week. The vote, however, depends on negotiations between the Finance Ministry and party leaders. Over the past few days, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) has gained mome...

Aug CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Azerbaijan revises down 2025 GDP growth, remittances to Uzbekistan keep on growing
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Aug 2025

I touch on the key macro-political events in the South Caucasus during the latest month: Armenia: CPI declines to 3.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Central Bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Government debt inches down in 2Q25 Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% YoY in 2Q25 Armenia: Monthly ...

Economic performance looks increasingly unimpressive
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

According to Rosstat, the output of the five basic sectors, a monthly proxy for overall economic activity, grew y-o-y by just 0.2% in July and 0.9% in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a rapid slowdown. Industrial production increased by 0.7% in July and 0.8% in 7M25, though July marked ...

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