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Seething politics, shaky currency
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2022 · 1 response

The Erdogan administration promised fairly large fiscal stimulus by July in the form of raising civil service pay and pensions. These may be signals for surprise elections in autumn, though the politics author is not yet willing to subscribe to the scenario. At the end, the fate of the shaky curr...

Breakaway region of Georgia may unite with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2022

On May 14 the President of South Ossetia said a referendum on seeking accession to the Russian Federation shall be held. The referendum will be on July 17 2022. It is almost certain that the result will be Yes to joining Russia.In 2008 Russia fought Georgia over the region. Russian troops in Sout...

Rallying, with inflation and police violence the main issues
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 May 2022

Given the atmosphere of global uncertainty, everything would seem to indicate that the Dominican economy is managing to overcome the situation well, and without great difficulties, except for the problem of inflation. GDP grew 6.1% in Q1 2022, compared to the same period in 2021; exports of to...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 May 2022

May 4 National bank: Current account surplus reached $2.2 bln in 1Q22, according to preliminary estimates Bureau of National Statistics: CPI in April was 2% y-o-y and 7.3% in 4M22 Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (local railways): Transportation for export via railroad grew in 1Q22 by 6% y-o-y May 5 Parlia...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE president dies, Dubai tourists exceed 2019 levels, Qatar’s emir visits Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 May 2022 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The EU and Qatar attempted to restart Iran nuclear negotiations with visits to Tehran. * PMIs fell in April in Saudi, Dubai and UAE but rose to a new record in Qatar. * Aramco surpassed Apple as the world’s most valuable c...

President Bolsonaro conflicts with the TSE and with Petrobras, the new Minister of Mines and Energy submitted a request for studies on the privatization of Petrobras, and the third-way alliance may select its presidential candidate next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2022

After the president of the TSE, Minister Edson Fachin, stated that “...nothing and no one will interfere in the Electoral Court," President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) declared, “The Armed Forces are not meddling in the elections.” Bolsonaro also said he will go to court to try to force Petrobras to redu...

Ukrainian gas transit to Europe fell by one-third, Hungary is indirectly affected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2022

The operator of Ukrainian gas pipelines stopped transiting Russian natural gas through a particular branch of its network on May 11, claiming the occurrence of a force majeure that made it impossible to continue its service. Gas TSO of Ukraine, the operator, said that it had lost control of its f...

Russia says EU membership for Ukraine is unacceptable
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 May 2022

On May 12 Moscow upped its rhetoric on the EU. Russia had previously said it could live with Ukraine joining the European Union so long as Ukraine vowed never to seek NATO membership. However, a Russian diplomat at the United Nations said that had changed. He said that the EU and NATO were almost...

GDP grew 8.3% in Q1 2022
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2022

Despite the Omicron-driven surge in covid-19 cases at the start of the year, economic growth in Q1 was stronger than the median analyst forecast of 6.7%.The 8.3% yoy headline number reflects some base effects, but economic growth on a sequential seasonally-adjusted basis was at a robust 1.9% clip...

Several factors fed inflation in April
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2022

In April, the monthly inflation rate accelerated to 4.4 percent, driven up by monetary expansion, bolivar depreciation, the Tax on Large Financial Transactions (Impuesto a las Grandes Transacciones Financieras, or IGTF) on certain payments in foreign currency, and price increases resulting from t...

The new Minister of Mines and Energy made his first official statement, the issue of inflation will be an important topic in the election, and Pacheco has a meeting with state finance secretaries today to discuss the increasing price of diesel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2022

Adolfo Sachsida said that he has 100% of President Jair Bolsonaro’s support. He did not mention any change in Petrobras's pricing policy, but said he will ask for studies on legislative bills that deal with the privatization of the company. Regarding the increase in fuel prices, Lula will likely ...

Finland to apply to NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 May 2022

On May 12 the Prime Minister and President of Finland both signed their formal intention to apply to to the 30 nation military alliance. Finland signed a 1944 treaty with the USSR vowing never to join a military alliance. The Finnish President said his country's decision to reverse 78 years of po...

Caught between two worlds
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 May 2022

It’s becoming increasingly clear that China’s leadership has no clear path out of the problems of handling the latest Covid wave, the impact on supply chains and domestic activity, the prolonged problems with the property industry, and the slowing economy. There also is significant debate about e...

Ukraine claims Russia pushed back from Kharkiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2022

On May 11 Ukraine said that the Russian Army had been driven back from Ukraine's second city. Russia has lost the high ground near Kharkiv making it harder to shell the city. On May 10 the US House of Representatives voted for a USD 40 billion aid package for Ukraine. The US Senate has to vote on...

New car sales down 78% Y o Y in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 May 2022

On May 11 statistics showed that car sales fell drastically in April 2022. The Association of European Businesses published figures. There was a 60% Y o Y drop in March 2022. It demonstrates that the impact sanctions is gradually being felt more and more. Note that the sale of second hand car is ...

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