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Brazil is still struggling to negotiate with the U.S. regarding Trump’s tariffs, the government is looking for alternative markets for the country’s exports, and Bolsonaro’s legal team discuss Supreme Court restrictions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2025

As Brazil struggles to open a negotiation channel with the United States, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to receive today from his economic team a set of proposals in response to the 50% tariff hike announced by Donald Trump on Brazilian products. These options will be presented to ...

MPC: in a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2025

The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a more than expected 300 bps to 43% today, vs consensus and our expectation of 250 bps. The O/N lending and borrowing rates were also lowered by 300 bps (see chart), as the asymmetry of the O/N corridor was maintained, with the former n...

A fair deal?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025

In our recent report on the Philippines’ negotiation with the US government on the level of reciprocal tariff, we argued that only its military and security value could be the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent visit to the US. And he should not squander it. Its small trade su...

The government released its bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, House President Motta suspended all committee meetings, and a special committee on app-based work has been created
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2025

Last night, the federal government released the Revenue and Expenditure Report for the third two-month period of the year and announced the unfreezing of R$20.7 billion from the 2025 budget. The government had frozen R$31.3 billion back in May. Lower House President Hugo Motta suspended all commi...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Jul 9 National Railway Company: Kazakhstan and China have signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic cooperation, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level for the rest of the...

"I thought I won!"
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jul 2025

From all indications, it is Manila's military and security value that was the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent US visit. The country's trade value added is minuscule. Its exports to the US, mainly consisting of semi-con and other electronic products, have very close substitu...

Zelenskiy dismantles anti-corruption independence in power consolidation push
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has behaved poorly in recent weeks. The President’s Office (through the Cabinet) derailed the reboot of the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESBU) by rejecting an independent candidate selected by a commission that included international experts. The ESBU reboot ...

Interest rates, assessment all kept unchanged at today's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jul 2025

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held this morning. Nobody expected any change, and there was none either, except a reduction of the mandatory reserve ratio for banks, from 10% to 8%, starting from August 1. Why is the latter essentially unimportant? Because th...

Bolsonaro’s party will hold committee sessions in the House despite recess, the government should release its bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, and Haddad said the government is weighing support measures for businesses facing Trump’s tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2025

The Liberal Party has decided to convene sessions of the Public Security and Foreign Affairs Committees, chaired by Deputies Paulo Bilynskyj and Felipe Barros—both close allies of Bolsonaro. In doing so, they are defying a directive from the President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, who issued a ...

Economics: Data through May shows tariffs are hurting the trade performance of Mexico's major exporting sectors to the US but also have led to a drop in US exports to Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2025

On July 12, President Trump issued his latest tariff threat against Mexico, consisting of a 30% across-the-board tariff starting August 1, due to what he considers insufficient efforts by the Mexican government to stop fentanyl trafficking and the steep trade deficit that the US maintains with Me...

A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part I: Domestic issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 22 Jul 2025

This report and the next will examine where Argentina stands economically and financially nineteen months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration will be able to do for the rest of its mandate. The analysis is...

Israel’s June labor market update: broad unemployment jumps, but labor market remains tight
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Jul 2025 · 1 response

According to preliminary figures released yesterday by the Central Bureau of Statistics, the broad unemployment rate in Israel surged to 10.0% in June, largely due to the two-week war with Iran. The number of people absent from work due to the war reached 295 thousand while the number of military...

Politics: Ties between Morena and organized crime place Sheinbaum between a rock and a hard place
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jul 2025

The thorny problem of ties between Morena governors and other public officials and organized crime, far from going away, is intensifying. These ties include the creation of large-scale criminal operations such as fuel theft, known as “huachicol”; the exchange of territorial control for electoral ...

A new phase in the 2026 presidential race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2025

Meetings continue between the government and business leaders to discuss the tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian imports. Compensation payments to INSS retirees and pensioners who were victims of fraud are set to begin next week. The economic team will also release its bimonthly rev...

Mr. Trump has launched a new threat to Hungary’s economic growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jul 2025

External conditions have not made macro forecasting any easier over the past three months. We see two key sources of high volatility and uncertainty that complicate the life of the macro analyst. One of them is geopolitical news, as demonstrated by the most recent violent episode between Israel, ...

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