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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Poland expels 45 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2022

On March 23 Warsaw said the diplomats are spies. The Poles also arrested a Pole whom they suspect of being a Russian agent. Moscow denies this. Russia has vowed to respond in kind. Poland has been among the most forthright NATO countries when it comes to helping Ukraine. Poland is hosting 2 milli...

Inflation in 2022 is likely to be the highest in twenty years
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that in the seven days ending on March 18, inflation reached 1.93%, therefore bringing the MTD and YTD tallies to 5.38% and 7.67%. Prices continue to rise fast across the board, and there are no signs yet that inflation w-o-w can decelerate materially any time soon. Inflation m-o...

The war impact cannot be properly assessed yet
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Mar 2022

Whatever used to be the state and the prospects of Hungary politically and economically, the whole story has been thoroughly rewritten by the war in Ukraine. The latter has dampened the outlook for growth, raised prospective inflation and interest rates, added further strains to fiscal policy, an...

Geraldo Alckmin expected to join the PSB today, the House approved the urgent status of the bill that sets a national salary floor for nursing professionals, and the STF analyzes the cases that challenge the end of the tie-breaking vote in the Carf
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2022

As we have said before, Alckmin’s affiliation with the PSB practically confirms his alliance with former President Lula. The Lula-Alckmin ticket is expected to be announced in April. Lira has said he will give the House five weeks to try to agree on a source of funding for the national salary flo...

Russian IT specialists emigrating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2022

On March 20 the Russian Association for Electronic Communications (RAEC) said about 60,000 IT workers have left the country since February 2020. Since the 1990s there has been a brain drain, but this has hugely accelerated since the war began 3 weeks ago. IT specialists are location independent. ...

Russia’s epochal turn: back to the future
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2022

As Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is far from being over and becomes increasingly "special", and new sanctions keep coming, the situation looks extremely uncertain. On top of that, many foreign companies are voluntarily leaving Russia or suspending their operations almost every ...

Base rate, corridor all raised by 100bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Mar 2022

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held today. The Council also discussed the Bank's Q1 inflation report, which made the event especially important under the current exceptional circumstances of the war in Ukraine.The Council raised the base rate, the O/N deposit...

Lower popularity does not make a hard job any easier
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Mar 2022

It seems like a long time ago that President Lasso enjoyed his highest levels of popularity, when over 70% of Ecuadorians approved of his performance, back in August 2021. By the end of January, his popularity had fallen below 40%. In this context Lasso is facing strong opposition outside and ins...

The government should decide whether Bolsonaro can reduce the tax on fuels, the House may vote on the urgent status of the updated salary floor for nurses, and the PSDB, the MDB and the União Brasil may decide to launch a single presidential candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2022

The governors and the TSE will discuss the possibility of modifying the price of fuel in an election year. The TSE has said that the provision of the electoral law that prohibits this may be suspended for this year. The government would like to limit the increase in gas prices. The estimated impa...

Economics: Expanded confidence survey sheds light on geographic and income differences
MEXICO · Report · 22 Mar 2022

The National Statistics institute is providing us with a more illuminating picture of consumer confidence by publishing a more much disaggregated version of its National Consumer Confidence Survey (ENCO). What the disaggregated version lacks in timeliness (this much more detailed survey is releas...

Russians moving to Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Mar 2022

Since the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out in February thousands of Russians have moved. Most have arrived in Tashkent. This is driving up the price of accommodation 15% in the last 2 months. The fall of the RUB has also impacted Uzbekistan as its economy is enmeshed with that of Russia. The Uzbek S...

Key reform opening up to FDI signed into law
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Mar 2022

Yesterday, President Rodrigo Duterte signed the last of three new laws liberalizing foreign entry into domestic industries. The latest, amending the 85-year old Public Service Act (PSA), is perhaps the most significant as it opens up vital infrastructure services including telecommunications, air...

Politics: How the presidential recall public consultation is likely to wind up
MEXICO · Report · 21 Mar 2022

An April 10 vote on whether to recall or reconfirm López Obrador as president marks only the second time the voters in Mexico have successfully petitioned the electoral authority (INE) to hold a public consultation, a mechanism of direct democracy approved under a constitutional reform in Novembe...

OFZ: the yield curve is inverted after reopening
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2022

Today, the OFZ market reopened after a two-week break. The decision to suspend trading was aimed at limiting volatility amid waves of anti-Russian sanctions. The trading session was divided into two parts. In the morning, it was a discrete auction to discover the price for the opening of the mark...

Electoral measures with fiscal impact and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Mar 2022 · 1 response

On Sunday, March 27, President Jair Bolsonaro launches his pre-candidacy for re-election. On Wednesday, March 23, Geraldo Alckmin joins the PSB and takes important steps toward becoming viable as Lula's VP in the presidential election. The Senate CCJ puts the Tax Reform proposal to a vote. Govern...

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