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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pressure on the Federal Government increases, public servants mobilize in favor of salary raises, and congressional leaders discuss a solution to the fuel price issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The demands on the government are numerous: increasing the number of families benefiting from Auxílio Brasil, correcting the income tax table, approving a new Refis, salary increases for the civil service, and the issue of fuel prices. When the National Congress resumes activity, these pressures ...

Politics: Morena remains top dog, but faces serious challenges ahead of 2024
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Morena is still clearly the front-runner in public opinion polls. However, recent developments have highlighted internal divisions and public dissatisfaction with its elected representatives that could complicate the party’s prospects in the 2024 presidential elections. Recent public sparring ...

​Inflation and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Brazil’s inflation in 2021 amounted to 10.1%, only behind Turkey and Argentina. The good news is that with the Central Bank continuing to “do whatever it takes”, inflation will decline during 2022, but the central target will only be attained again in 2023. To achieve this outcome, the SELIC rate...

Castillo realigns political support; mining protests introduce risks to growth
PERU · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The rapid fall in President Pedro Castillo’s popularity since he formed his government on July 28th has been surprising. Most previous presidents have either continued to sail for a longer “honeymoon period” on the wave of the high popularity that carried them into office, or have at least able t...

The electorate's demands and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

On Tuesday, January 18, public servants will mobilize in favor of salary raises. On the same day, the government will start issuing Auxílio Brasil payments, of R$ 400. A new poll on the presidential succession will be published on Thursday, and President Bolsonaro has until Friday to sanction the...

UK sends arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

On January 17 the British Defense Secretary announced the shipment of anti-armor defensive weapons and some training personnel. London emphasized that these weapons are short range and do not menace Russia. The number of system sent has not been disclosed. The same day, the UK invited the Russian...

More power supply worries
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

In a commentary last year on domestic inflation concerns,[1] we cited the sufficiency of electric power supply as one of the risks that have macro level implications.[2]Barely two weeks into the new year, we are seeing just how idiosyncratic the risks affecting this complex sector have become. As...

We expect a rate hike on April 11
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jan 2022

1. December’s CPI surprised on the upside as core inflation accelerated to 2.7% y/y. 2. We expect inflation to reach 1.7% this year on the back of wage pressure and higher rental prices, partially offset by shekel appreciation. 3. We expect the BoI to hike on April 11 due to high inflat...

Moldova struggles to pay for gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 13 the country paid its gas debt to Gazprom for gas bought in December 2021. Moldova is the second poorest country in Europe. It has trouble paying for gas as world prices are sky high.In October 2021 there was a state of emergency over gas prices. The country started buying gas from E...

Armenia and Turkey negotiate normalization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 14 the former deadly foes met at Moscow. They have agreed to a further round of talks. The date and venue are not yet set. Both have said there are no preconditions. Russia was happy to host talks. Armenia is heavily reliant on Russian largesse. Russia does not want to see a diminution...

Former Ukrainian President flies home despite treason charges
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

Petro Poroshenko returned on January 17. The treason charge is because he allegedly facilitated coal deals with pro-Moscow rebels. He says the charge is politically motivated. Hundreds of well wishers greeted him. Poroshenko said that Ukraine must stand up to Russia.Prosecutors are seeking an arr...

​Apparent Houthi attacks on Abu Dhabi highlights vulnerabilities to drones
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

Preliminary indications suggest that fires in Abu Dhabi, which killed three people at a fuel depot and disrupted the airport, were caused by drones. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. The market impact so far has been relatively muted but could become more significant if ther...

More Nazarbayev relatives being removed from posts confirms his loss of power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 15 two sons-in-law of the Leader of the Nation lost their positions. Kairat Sharipbayev was head of QazaqGas. He is married to Darigha Nazarbayeva - the eldest daughter of the Leader of the Nation. Dimash Dosanov was in the KazTranOil. Timur Kulibaev (another son in law) has been remov...

First thoughts on 2022
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

We expect a rate hike on April 11th
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2022

Inflation surprises on the upsideo Inflation in December increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%), and 2.8% y/y. Core inflation increased by 2.7%.o Inflation surprises were mostly broad-based, with housing rental prices accelerating to 3.3% y/y (from 2.9% last month).o We expect inflati...

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