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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Germany suspends certification of Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

On November 15 Berlin said it cannot continue the process until a German company is established to manage the pipeline. Nord Stream 2 AG is a Swiss-registered company that currently owns the pipeline. The company can establish a German subsidiary, and that will satisfy Germany's demand. The asset...

Q3 GDP growth moderately below analyst forecasts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

GDP growth for Q3 has been reported at 0.7% qoq, 6.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis this morning. In two domestic polls, the analyst median expectation was 7.2 and 7.4% yoy. Our own forecast was 6.8% yoy.Even though no breakdown was given by KSH, as usual with first estimate GDP report...

Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

What we know at this time:The period for filing of substitute candidates is over. Presidential daughter, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte, decided to run for vice president under the party of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Presidential aspirant Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. who is running under a less...

Economics: Pemex and CFE results combine minor gains, continuing risks, and no energy transition
MEXICO · Report · 15 Nov 2021

The country’s national oil and electric power companies released their third quarter results just as delegates were starting to assemble in Glasgow for COP26. Positive takeaways from Pemex included an extension of the gradual uptrend in crude production alongside a smattering of new well discover...

Russian macro: how Minfin’s actions hamper the effectiveness of CBR policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Russian federal budget revenues soared this year and exceeded the initial annual plan by 8.9% in 10M21. Oil-and-gas revenues were 21.8% higher than expected, while the rest of the revenues were 2.1% above the planned annual amount. In 10M21, the government spent 85% of budgeted expenditure, which...

Politics: Violence and public insecurity pose risks of crisis in tourist areas
MEXICO · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Crime-fueled violence continues to plague Mexico, with around 3,000 killings per month. With the growth in organized crime and drug cartels, their presence along with the associated violence and killings, has also intensified and spread to different parts of the country. Examples of this progress...

October’s CPI surprises sharply on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2021

October’s CPI increased by 0.1% m/m (consensus expected 0.4%), and declined to 2.3% y/y from 2.5% last month. The main surprise came from the “travel abroad” item (3.7% of the basket) which declined by 7.9% contributing -0.3% to October’s print. This is rather surprising considering restrictions ...

EU announces sanctions on Belarus over border crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2021

On November 15 Brussels said it is sanctioning various Belarusian entities whom it holds responsible for bringing several thousand illegal immigrants to the borders of Poland and Lithuania. The new sanctions are due to target 30 entities and individuals such as travel agencies and airlines that h...

The re-election tripod and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Nov 2021

The Court-ordered payments (Precatórios) PEC begins analysis in the Senate. The Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) discusses a bill on Petrobras's pricing policy. In the House, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) may vote on the extension of the payroll tax exemption. Deputy Marcelo...

Turkey Covid Watch - November 15, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Cases fluctuated between 23K-30K during the past two weeks, with the overall picture about unchanged since mid-September. Turkey has not witnessed the kind of increase seen in Northern Europe in recent weeks, but we expect this to change once winter weather sets in. Please note that we are put...

Today’s data release was better than expected, but not good
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2021 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Today’s data release was better than most analysts expected, but mainly because expectations for the month were very low. Growth in China continues to slow. * While consumption growth outpaced production growth in October, as it has for the pas...

The fiscal deficit is expected to undershoot in 2022, supporting low issuance
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Highlights: The fiscal deficit declines sharply: - In the last 12 months through October the fiscal deficit declined to 5.5% GDP from 11.9% in March. - Tax revenues in January-October 2021 are up 19% in real terms compared to two years ago (pre-Covid). - We expect a fiscal ...

​A harsh electoral defeat for the government
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Nov 2021

With 98.5% of all polling stations scrutinized, there is no doubt that Sunday’s mid-term elections were a harsh defeat for the governing coalition, formed by traditional Peronists and Kirchnerists. In line with the September primary election, the ruling coalition “Frente de Todos” (FdT) obtained ...

Between hope and despair
TURKEY · Report · 14 Nov 2021 · 2 responses

The politics author unveils his base-case scenario for domestic politics for next year, urged by members of our audience during numerous meetings over the past week. This scenario entails Erdogan’s health slipping further; ‘early-early’ elections won by the opposition that culminate in a new ...

The fiscal deficit is expected to undershoot in 2022, supporting low issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Nov 2021

The fiscal deficit declines sharply In the last 12 months through October the fiscal deficit declined to 5.5% GDP from 11.9% in March. Tax revenues in January-October 21 are up 19% in real terms compared to two years ago (pre-Covid). We expect a fiscal deficit this year of 4.7% GDP, below the off...

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