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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Anything may happen, any minute
TURKEY · Report · 24 Oct 2021

An unexpectedly deep rate cut by the CBRT and a weekend outburst of expelling 10 ambassadors from friendly nations, compels us to revisit Erdogan’s decision-making capacity, once again. We offer visual evidence of his declining cognitive powers, concluding that his policy actions may not be refle...

Russian interest rate raised: again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2021

As expected on October 22 the interest rate went up to 7.5%. The country contends with a triple whammy of coronavirus surging, a second lockdown and rampant inflation. The economy has returned to its pre-coronavirus size earlier in 2021. The recovery was faster than anticipated and beat most majo...

Pandemic/political update: economic woes dominate, the epidemiological situation deteriorates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Oct 2021

Since early September, when Russia’s daily incidence rate fluctuated around 17-18K people, the number of registered cases doubled, having jumped to 36K on October 21 and over 37K on October 22. Vaccination remains slow, despite the high daily death toll – over 1K in recent days. Note that the dea...

Prospects for 2021-2022: rapid growth, high inflation
HUNGARY · Forecast · 22 Oct 2021

In our previous quarterly forecast, published in July, we wrote of the unusually high degree of uncertainty for this year, naming Covid, inflation and the prospective access to EU funds as the related main factors. Since then, uncertainties have decreased in a moderately positive way regarding Co...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar reshuffles cabinet, Kuwait prepares pardons, Bahrain talks with donors
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Oct 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases and deaths are down about -95% from their peak, and restrictions are being lifted. * The IMF’s REO gave fiscal breakeven oil prices for 2022 from $44 (Qatar) to $107 (Bahrain). * Saudi Arabia is in a dis...

Four members of the economic team resign after a solution to the court-ordered payments PEC and Auxílio Brasil issues was announced. The president of the TSE should schedule analysis of cases calling for the revocation of the Bolsonaro-Mourão ticket
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2021

The Special Secretary of the Treasury and Budget, Bruno Funchal, and his assistant, Gildenora Dantas, stepped down. The secretary of the National Treasury, Jeferson Bittencourt, and his assistant, Rafael Araujo, also left the ministry. The court-ordered payments PEC was approved by the Special Co...

A trapped president
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Oct 2021

President Lasso is trapped in a power battle with the Assembly, which is the omen of a lose-lose situation unless both sides seek ways to lower the political heat. Ever since the CAL rejected the mega-bill project, conflict between the parties has escalated, with mutual accusations. Finally, Lass...

The NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 8.5%, new increase likely in December
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 8.5%. The decision went in line with the consensus forecast. At its last communication in September the NBU made it clear that a further prime rate increase is highly undesirable. The market reflected this message at the consensus forecast despite th...

The CBRT follows orders, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021

Writing belatedly here because of a prior commitment. There is really not much to add to what my colleague Atilla already said, but here are a few thoughts for the record. The cut was more than what the consensus – around 50 bps -- expected, but after the final round of changes at the CBRT, that ...

The emergency aid issue remains unresolved, the Auxílio Brasil program should start in November, and Senator Calheiros's final report should not cause any short-term issues for Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2021

According to the President, no family will receive less than R$ 400. The payments from Auxílio Brasil should have a positive impact on President Jair Bolsonaro's popularity among those in extreme poverty. However, inflation, the fuel issue, the water crisis and the lower growth of the economy may...

President Castillo reshuffles Cabinet; real GDP growth forecast revised up
PERU · Report · 21 Oct 2021

President Pedro Castillo reshuffled his Cabinet on October 6th. This followed a two-month period in which Castillo’s main challenges have originated in his own Cabinet, especially among representatives of his Perú Libre party, and the party’s head, pro-Cuban left-wing radical Vladimir Cerrón. Whi...

More key rate hikes as inflation accelerate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021 · 1 response

According to Rosstat, in seven days to October 18, inflation w-o-w reached 0.26%, having accelerated from 0.22% seen in the preceding seven days. Inflation MTD reached 0.63% in eighteen days of October (5.98% YTD). Consumer price inflation beat all earlier expectations and is likely to be at leas...

​CBRT rate decision: First impressions
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021

CBRT MPC just announced a 200 basis point rate cut, lowering the main policy rate to 16%. Depending on the survey, consensus was 50 basis points, though several participants didn’t exclude100 basis point rate cut. These are views of the Politics Author, and his alter ego Cosmic Strategist regardi...

China’s growth strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Oct 2021

The harsh restrictions on the property sector have thrown in doubt the primary growth engine for the Chinese economy. The Politburo has three choices: reinflate the property market, accept radically lower growth, or switch to a new growth driver. Can China find a new source of economic growth to ...

Ukraine anti-oligarch law running into trouble
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021

On October 15 the head of the National Security and Defense Council told the press that 108 innocent people were on the sanctions list designed to hurt so-called "thieves in law". There are over 500 people on the list, and 400 of them remain on it. It was announced that 8 people who wrote the lis...

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