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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A better Christmas
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Nov 2021

The government yesterday unexpectedly announced a lowering of Metro Manila’s covid alert level from 3 to 2, which would allow close contact services to operate at 50% capacity (from 30%). This came alongside an increase in the allowable ridership for public transportation to 70% of capacity (from...

Russian inflation at 8%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2021

The Russian Statistic Agency (Rosstat) published data on November 3 showing that inflation is the highest since 2016. The Russian Central Bank (CBR) has tried in vain to stem inflation. Price rises are hampering the economic recovery.The inflation rate is even worse than forecast, which was 7.4%....

A full political agenda for the coming weeks
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Nov 2021

President Lasso continues his official tour through Europe, where he attended the 26th UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow and is currently presenting the Ecuadorian investment portfolio to government officers and private businessmen in Spain. In the meanwhile, the Commission of Constitutiona...

The Court-ordered payments PEC was approved in the first round, the CCJ of the House analyzes the extension of the payroll tax exemption, and Anatel holds the 5G auction today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2021

With 312 votes in favor and 144 against, the House approved the Court-ordered payments PEC in the first round. Eleven edits to the text still need to be analyzed next Tuesday, November 9. The vote in the Senate will require even more effort from the government. According to the approved text, the...

Chile: Boric has Covid and the campaign is on hold
CHILE · In Brief · 04 Nov 2021 · 1 response

With just under three weeks to go until the upcoming presidential elections in Chile, public opinion polls have begun to show that Gabriel Boric (Apruebo Dignidad) and José Antonio Kast (Republican Party) will like move on to the December runoff vote, with Boric the likely winner. But on Tuesday ...

Poland building wall on Belarus border to stem tide of illegals
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2021

On October 29 the Polish Parliament approved more than USD 400 million to build the barrier. It says that Belarus is deliberately helping illegal immigrants from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan to cross into Poland. The wall will be 100 km long but that will not cover the whole border. Poland is also...

​Biden – Erdogan summit overshadowed by health rumors
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

President Erdogan’s wish finally came true, when the US side confirmed in the 11th hour a meeting between him and Joe Biden. As to what happened in that meeting, sides politely disagree. It is fair to say nothing new emerged from the summit, which I can call concrete positive progress. Summit new...

Inflation up to 8.13% y-o-y in October despite CBR series of rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation in October continued to accelerate – the m-o-m figure was at 1.11%, while inflation y-o-y accelerated to 8.13%. Inflation YTD reached 6.49%. Inflation w-o-w remained steady and high, showing no clear signs of deceleration (in the seven days ending on November 1, it...

Ukraine accuses Russia of moving troops to the border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

On November 2 satellite images were published showing Russian forces massing near the Ukrainian Border. Moscow vehemently denied this. There has been an escalation in fighting between the Ukrainian Army and pro-Moscow rebels. The Ukrainian Defense Minister resigned on November 2 on health grounds...

The shekel appreciated sharply last week
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Nov 2021

The pace of shekel appreciation has accelerated, with the shekel up by 1.5% last week (against the basket of currencies), and by 1.7% in October, as BOI intervention declined. Yet, pressure for appreciation is likely to continue on strong fundamentals and FDI. Private consumption growth slowed as...

Bad print, but good enough for CBRT
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2021

Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 2.4% in October, m/m, with the 12-month rate therefore edging up further to just under 20% (19.9%) from 19.6% in September. Producer prices increased sharply again in October, by 5.2%, m/m, with the 12-month rate thus reaching a historic high ...

The Court-ordered payments PEC should be put to a vote today, the truck drivers’ strike should remain small, and TV host José Luiz Datena left the PSL to join the PSD
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2021

The government is hoping to reach the ideal number of at least 475 deputies in the plenary to reach a quorum and be able to approve the PEC. There are two options if the proposal is not approved: a provisional measure to issue extraordinary credit or a bill in Congress for supplemental credit. Th...

SAUDI: The Q3 fiscal surplus means the 2021 outturn should nearly balance, and we expect a 2%+ surplus in 2022
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 03 Nov 2021

* The 0.9% of GDP surplus in Q3 was only the second on record in the quarterly series. * VAT revenue beat our expectations, and oil was in line, given higher prices and production. * Spending dipped in Q3 but is still likely to come in a little above budget. * We have halved our deficit foreca...

​The conditioned Pavlov response
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Nov 2021

As expected, and yet imprudently, the government’s economic direction further embraced the Vice President´s “textbook” recommendations after the adverse results in the September primary elections. Like a conditioned Pavlov response to the stimulus of an anticipated electoral defeat, the governmen...

New cabinet reshuffle: when changes change nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

The media wrote that already this week new people will take seats in the Cabinet. This is nothing new. We heard about inevitable replacements in the Cabinet back in June. But it took some time for the ruling group to deliver this new reshuffle. As David Arakhamia, the Head of parliamentary factio...

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