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Russia will use prison labor to offset lack of immigrants
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2021

Since March 2020 there has been an outflow of guestworkers from former Soviet states. They mostly come from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Armenia.Prisoners shall be used to complete the Baikal Amur Mainline Railroad. 600 prisoners will start work in June 2021. BAM had 15,000 laborers before the pand...

Kazakhstan refuses to impose sanctions on the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2021

On June 5 the Kazakhs said they rejected Moscow's proposal for Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) countries to sanction Western countries. The EEU comprises these two as well as Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan is the second biggest economy in the EEU.Nursultan City said that the EEU is eco...

Serbia and Argentina are producing the Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2021

On June 4 it was announced that the two countries are making the Sputnk V. Serbia's objective is to make 4 million doses.Argentina and Serbia will export the vaccine once they have satisfied their domestic needs. The Russian Direct Investment Fund is marketing the vaccine.

Summertime, when the livin’ ain’t easy
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jun 2021

The YouTube broadcasts of a Mafia boss Mr. Sedat Peker are still creating tremors in Turkish politics, as each installment brings new charges and new persona into the plot. The recent broadcasts have focused on AKP members receiving kickbacks and the illicit weapons trade to fundamentalist entiti...

The new government is expected to be fiscally responsible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jun 2021

Highlights:Politics: The new “change” government will be sworn in by next week, barring any unforeseen developments. We think this government is a positive development for fiscal policy and stimulating growth.Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Broad unemployment declined t...

Putin bans 'extremist' candidates from elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2021

On June 6 the president signed a law which precludes those with any connection to 'extremist' bodies from seeking election to parliamment in September 2021 and for at least 3 years afterwards. The government is clearly worried about the elections. They have never gone this far before. Those with ...

Sleepless in Cali
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Jun 2021

Destabilization via vandalism, roadblocks in major cities and paralysis of the crucial Buenaventura seaport has been effective, proving Colombia quite vulnerable to obstructions in key logistical corridors. The country may be at a critical moment, similar to that of 1903, when Panama broke away. ...

Retail sales data was relatively strong in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

Retail sales fell 1% mom but rose 12.2% yoy, sda, in volume terms in April. The mom number was depressed by this year's Covid lockdown, whereas the yoy figure was greatly lifted by last year's lockdown, which resulted in an extremely big, 13.7% mom drop in April 2020.The conclusion from this data...

Economic performance improves in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s economic performance looked better in early 2021 than was earlier reported. The statistical agency revised upward previously published monthly data for services, transportation, and some other segments of the economy. Apart from agriculture (which was almost flat y-...

General Pazuello will not be punished for attending a political event, and the privatization of Eletrobras and Administrative Reform see progress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2021

Former Minister of Health and General Eduardo Pazuello will not be punished. He was appointed Secretary of Strategic Studies of the government. Congress should vote on the CSLL rate for banks, the end to the Reiq program, the privatization of Eletrobras and Administrative Reform. Next week’s test...

​GULF WEEKLY: S&P negative on Bahrain, Aramco plans sukuk, Oman protests end, oil at a 2-year high
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Jun 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There was positivity after the 5th round of US-Iran talks, but still no deal. Iran was also positive about its talks with Saudi. * Coronavirus cases continued rising in UAE, Kuwait and Oman but eased in Bahrain and Qatar. ...

​May inflation at 4.5%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

As expected, the headline inflation rate stayed at 4.5% in May, reflecting a 0.1% monthly increase in prices. Food prices fell 0.4% mom due mainly to continuing decline in vegetables, with meat prices likewise retreating marginally. The increase in non-food inflation may be traced to catering ser...

Russia to drop USD from reserve fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

On June 3 the Finance Ministry said that it will no longer keep holdings in USD. It will switch to more RMB, EUR and gold. The national welfare fund has USD 41 billion in USD at the moment. The switch away from USD is to be completed in a month.The liquid part of the NWF is USD 120 billion. It wi...

Russia makes greenhouse gas law
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2021

On June 3 the Duma passed a law restricing the greenhouse gas emissions of private companies. A system to govern emissions will be established. Russia is the 4th biggest emitter in the world.The government shall encourage Russian firms to invest in environmental restoration and to cease behavior ...

Don't be fooled by randomness
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2021

Consumer prices rose by 0.89% in May, lower than the consensus (and our) estimate of some 1.3%, which resulted in a drop in the 12-month rate drop --after 7 consecutive months of increase-- to 16.6% from 17.1% in April. On the other hand, producer prices (domestic-PPI inflation) rose by 3.9%, m/m...